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Persistent differences in wealth and power among prehispanic Pueblo societies are visible from the late AD 800s through the late 1200s, after which large portions of the northern US Southwest were depopulated. In this paper we measure these differences in wealth using Gini coefficients based on house size, and show that high Ginis (large wealth differences) are positively related to persistence in settlements and inversely related to an annual measure of the size of the unoccupied dry-farming niche. We argue that wealth inequality in this record is due first to processes inherent in village life which have internally different distributions of the most productive maize fields, exacerbated by the dynamics of systems of balanced reciprocity; and second to decreasing ability to escape village life owing to shrinking availability of unoccupied places within the maize dry-farming niche as villages get enmeshed in regional systems of tribute or taxation. We embed this analytical reconstruction in the model of an ‘Abrupt imposition of Malthusian equilibrium in a natural-fertility, agrarian society’ proposed by Puleston et al . (Puleston C, Tuljapurkar S, Winterhalder B. 2014 PLoS ONE 9 , e87541 (doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087541)), but show that the transition to Malthusian dynamics in this area is not abrupt but extends over centuries This article is part of the theme issue ‘Evolutionary ecology of inequality’. 

Temperature variability likely played an important role in determining the spread and productive potential of North America’s key prehispanic agricultural staple, maize. The United States Southwest (SWUS) also served as the gateway for maize to reach portions of North America to the north and east. Existing temperature reconstructions for the SWUS are typically low in spatial or temporal resolution, shallow in time depth, or subject to unknown degrees of insensitivity to low-frequency variability, hindering accurate determination of temperature’s role in agricultural productivity and variability in distribution and success of prehispanic farmers. Here, we develop a model-based modern analog technique (MAT) approach applied to 29 SWUS fossil pollen sites to reconstruct July temperatures from 3000 BC to AD 2000. Temperatures were generally warmer than or similar to those of the modern (1961–1990) period until the first century AD. Our reconstruction also notes rapid warming beginning in the AD 1800s; modern conditions are unprecedented in at least the last five millennia in the SWUS. Temperature minima were reached around 1800 BC, 1000 BC, AD 400 (the global minimum in this series), the mid-to-late AD 900s, and the AD 1500s. Summer temperatures were generally depressed relative to northern hemisphere norms by a dominance of El Niño-like conditions during much of the second millenium BC and the first millenium AD, but somewhat elevated relative to those same norms in other periods, including from about AD 1300 to the present, due to the dominance of La Niña-like conditions.

 

Climate extremes are thought to have triggered large-scale transformations of various ancient societies, but they rarely seem to be the sole cause. It has been hypothesized that slow internal developments often made societies less resilient over time, setting them up for collapse. Here, we provide quantitative evidence for this idea. We use annual-resolution time series of building activity to demonstrate that repeated dramatic transformations of Pueblo cultures in the pre-Hispanic US Southwest were preceded by signals of critical slowing down, a dynamic hallmark of fragility. Declining stability of the status quo is consistent with archaeological evidence for increasing violence and in some cases, increasing wealth inequality toward the end of these periods. Our work thus supports the view that the cumulative impact of gradual processes may make societies more vulnerable through time, elevating the likelihood that a perturbation will trigger a large-scale transformation that includes radically rejecting the status quo and seeking alternative pathways. 

El Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático (IPCC por sus siglas en inglés) fue fundado en 1988 con el objetivo de proporcionar tanto evaluaciones de las ciencias climáticas relevantes a las políticas gubernamentales, como opciones para adaptación y mitigación a los gobiernos a nivel internacional. Al presente, este cuerpo intergubernamental es reconocido como la fuente principal de compilaciones sobre las investigaciones desde las ciencias climáticas, de adaptación y de mitigación. Los científicos que voluntariamente escriben los reportes para el IPCC han completado cinco ciclos de evaluaciones, y se encuentran trabajando en el sexto ciclo que terminarán en 2022. En este artículo, los autores revisamos cómo la información de y sobre la arqueología y otras formas de patrimonio cultural han sido incorporadas en estos reportes hasta el momento. Aún cuando esta revisión demuestra que la arqueología no ha estado totalmente ausente del trabajo del IPCC, los autores sugerimos que la arqueología tiene mucho más que ofrecer, tanto al IPCC como a la respuesta climática global. A estos efectos, proponemos cinco maneras en que tanto los arqueólogos como el conocimiento del pasado y sobre él pueden ser incorporados más plenamente en las evaluaciones y reportes del IPCC. 

A constrained stochastic weather generator (CSWG) for producing daily mean air temperature and precipitation based on annual mean air temperature and precipitation from tree-ring records is developed and tested in this paper. The principle for stochastically generating daily mean air temperature assumes that temperatures in any year can be approximated by a sinusoidal wave function plus a perturbation from the baseline. The CSWG for stochastically producing daily precipitation is based on three additional assumptions: (1) In each month, the total precipitation can be estimated from annual precipitation if there exists a relationship between the annual and monthly precipitations. If that relationship exists, then (2) for each month, the number of dry days and the maximum daily precipitation can be estimated from the total precipitation in that month. Finally, (3) in each month, there exists a probability distribution of daily precipitation amount for each wet day. These assumptions allow the development of a weather generator that constrains statistically relevant daily temperature and precipitation predictions based on a specified annual value, and thus this study presents a unique method that can be used to explore historic (e.g., archeological questions) or future (e.g., climate change) daily weather conditions based upon specified annual values. 

With our diverse training, theoretical and empirical toolkits, and rich data, evolutionary and biological anthropologists (EBAs) have much to contribute to research and policy decisions about climate change and other pressing social issues. However, we remain largely absent from these critical, ongoing efforts. Here, we draw on the literature and our own experiences to make recommendations for how EBAs can engage broader audiences, including the communities with whom we collaborate, a more diverse population of students, researchers in other disciplines and the development sector, policymakers, and the general public. These recommendations include: (1) playing to our strength in longitudinal, place‐based research, (2) collaborating more broadly, (3) engaging in greater public communication of science, (4) aligning our work with open‐science practices to the extent possible, and (5) increasing diversity of our field and teams through intentional action, outreach, training, and mentorship.

We EBAs need to put ourselves out there: research and engagement are complementary, not opposed to each other. With the resources and workable examples we provide here, we hope to spur more EBAs to action.

 

All species have an environmental niche, and despite technological advances, humans are unlikely to be an exception. Here, we demonstrate that for millennia, human populations have resided in the same narrow part of the climatic envelope available on the globe, characterized by a major mode around ∼11 °C to 15 °C mean annual temperature (MAT). Supporting the fundamental nature of this temperature niche, current production of crops and livestock is largely limited to the same conditions, and the same optimum has been found for agricultural and nonagricultural economic output of countries through analyses of year-to-year variation. We show that in a business-as-usual climate change scenario, the geographical position of this temperature niche is projected to shift more over the coming 50 y than it has moved since 6000 BP. Populations will not simply track the shifting climate, as adaptation in situ may address some of the challenges, and many other factors affect decisions to migrate. Nevertheless, in the absence of migration, one third of the global population is projected to experience a MAT >29 °C currently found in only 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface, mostly concentrated in the Sahara. As the potentially most affected regions are among the poorest in the world, where adaptive capacity is low, enhancing human development in those areas should be a priority alongside climate mitigation. 

Este artículo investiga las dinámicas de la formación comunitaria a través de un análisis de los cambios diacrónicos en los patrones espaciales de las viviendas contemporáneas. Desarrollamos y aplicamos una rutina geoespacial para medir las extensiones y los patrones de interacción entre las viviendas desde dC 600 hasta 1280 en la cuesta Mesa Verde en el sudoeste de Colorado. Los resultados implican que la organización espacial entre las viviendas fue determinada simultáneamente por el mantenimiento de la interacción social habitual que sostenía las comunidades y por la separación espacial suficiente para la subsistencia de los grupos domésticos. Entre dC 600 y 1200, los grupos domésticos mantuvieron el equilibrio entre estos dos factores a través la formación de comunidades adicionales con asentamientos dispersos para mitigar varias presiones demográficas y ecológicas. Sin embargo, con el resurgimiento de la población después de la megasequía a mediados del siglo XII, las comunidades se volvieron cada vez más concentradas, alterando en cada comunidad el equilibrio existente entre la interacción de los grupos domésticos y sus espacios de subsistencia respectivos. Este cambio de la organización espacial de las comunidades generó vulnerabilidades que iban agravándose por los factores de un clima más frío, la sequía, la violencia, y otros cambios en la organización política y ritual a mediados del siglo XIII. La interacción entre estas presiones sociales y ambientales desembocó en la despoblación total de la cuesta Mesa Verde antes del fin del siglo XIII.