Climate and land use change are two of the primary threats to global biodiversity; however, each species within a community may respond differently to these facets of global change. Although it is typically assumed that species use the habitat that is advantageous for survival and reproduction, anthropogenic changes to the environment can create ecological traps, making it critical to assess both habitat selection (e.g. where species congregate on the landscape) and the influence of selected habitats on the demographic processes that govern population dynamics. We used a long‐term (1958–2011), large‐scale, multi‐species dataset for waterfowl that spans the United States and Canada to estimate species‐specific responses to climate and land use variables in a landscape that has undergone significant environmental change across space and time. We first estimated the effects of change in climate and land use variables on habitat selection and population dynamics for nine species. We then hypothesized that species‐specific responses to environmental change would scale with life‐history traits, specifically: longevity, nesting phenology and female breeding site fidelity. We observed species‐level heterogeneity in the demographic and habitat selection responses to climate and land use change, which would complicate community‐level habitat management. Our work highlights the importance of multi‐species monitoring and community‐level analysis, even among closely related species. We detected several relationships between life‐history traits, particularly nesting phenology, and species' responses to environmental change. One species, the early‐nesting northern pintail ( By distilling the diversity of species' responses to environmental change within a community, our methodological approach and findings will help improve predictions of community responses to global change and can inform multi‐species management and conservation plans in dynamic landscapes that are based on simple tenets of life‐history theory.
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Abstract Anas acuta ), was consistently at the extreme end of responses to land use and climate predictors and has been a species of conservation concern since their population began to decline in the 1980s. They, and the blue‐winged teal, also demonstrated a positive habitat selection response to the proportion of cropland on the landscape that simultaneously reduced abundance the following year, indicative of susceptibility to ecological traps. -
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Abstract Nest predation influences population dynamics and is thought to exert strong selection on the evolution of avian life history. Because parental behaviors can attract the attention of nest predators, incubating birds are predicted to decrease conspicuous behaviors at the nest-site and increase incubation constancy when risks of nest predation are high. We examined whether snowy plovers Charadrius nivosus responded to predator-specific risks of nest predation, using the number of off bouts and daily nest attendance (proportion of time spent incubating) as responses. We quantified risks using predator-specific hazard rates of nest mortality, which varied daily and were based on habitat characteristics at each nest. We assessed the influence of predator-specific risks of nest mortality on incubation behaviors using an individual-centering approach, allowing us to explain variation in incubation behaviors within- and among-breeding pairs. We found increased number of off bouts and nest attendance within-breeding pairs in response to increasing risks of nest predation by foxes (Vulpes spp.) and gulls (Larus spp.), but not coyotes (Canis latrans) and common ravens (Corvus corax). Among breeding pairs across habitats, we found increased nest attendance in response to higher risks of nest predation by foxes, but not coyotes, gulls, or ravens. Breeding pairs differed in the amount of behavioral plasticity they exhibited in response to risks of nest predation. Our results suggest that risks of nest predation differentially influence behavioral responses of snowy plovers depending on the predator species, and the amount of behavioral plasticity may depend on the characteristics of breeding adults.
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Abstract Harvest of wild organisms is an important component of human culture, economy, and recreation, but can also put species at risk of extinction. Decisions that guide successful management actions therefore rely on the ability of researchers to link changes in demographic processes to the anthropogenic actions or environmental changes that underlie variation in demographic parameters.
Ecologists often use population models or maximum sustained yield curves to estimate the impacts of harvest on wildlife and fish populations. Applications of these models usually focus exclusively on the impact of harvest and often fail to consider adequately other potential, often collinear, mechanistic drivers of the observed relationships between harvest and demographic rates. In this study, we used an integrated population model and long‐term data (1973–2016) to examine the relationships among hunting and natural mortality, the number of hunters, habitat conditions, and population size of blue‐winged teal
Spatula discors , an abundant North American dabbling duck with a relatively fast‐paced life history strategy.Over the last two and a half decades of the study, teal abundance tripled, hunting mortality probability increased slightly (), and natural mortality probability increased substantially () at greater population densities. We demonstrate strong density‐dependent effects on natural mortality and fecundity as population density increased, indicative of compensatory harvest mortality and compensatory natality. Critically, an analysis that only assessed the relationship between survival and hunting mortality would spuriously indicate depensatory mortality due to multicollinearity between abundance, natural mortality and hunting mortality.
Our findings demonstrate that models that only consider the direct effect of hunting on survival or natural mortality can fail to accurately assess the mechanistic impact of hunting on population dynamics due to multicollinearity among demographic drivers. This multicollinearity limits inference and may have strong impacts on applied management actions globally.
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A hierarchical model for jointly assessing ecological and anthropogenic impacts on animal demographymore » « less
Abstract The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts.
The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference.
In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43‐year capture–mark–recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallards
Anas platyrhynchos released in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters.We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models.
Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa.
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ABSTRACT Auxiliary markers play an essential role in understanding migration, movement, demography, and behavior of migratory birds. Use of such markers relies on the assumption that the markers do not affect the traits of interest. Neck collars, among the most conspicuous of markers, substantially affect risk of harvest, and survival even in the absence of harvest. Effects of less‐conspicuous markers, such as colored plastic tarsal bands, are not well understood. We used 30 years (1986–2015) of banding, recovery, and recapture data from the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska, USA, to assess differences in direct band recovery rates (DRRs) between black plastic and brightly colored plastic bands applied to black brant (
Branta bernicla nigricans ). We also assessed the effect of the color of plastic tarsal bands on annual survival, risks of natural mortality harvest, and fidelity to the breeding colony of adult female black brant. When assessing only DRRs we found that brightly colored bands were recovered at higher rates than black plastic bands in the early 2000s, but DRRs for black bands increased more rapidly through time, resulting in similar DRRs for the 2 band colors at the end of the study. Using a Burnham model structure, our results demonstrated that individuals fitted with colored bands had slightly lower hazards of dying from natural causes or hunting than individuals carrying less‐conspicuous black tarsal bands. Differences on annual probability scales were small and credible intervals broadly overlapped between band types, indicating minimal differences between individuals with different band types; however, we could not resolve all confounding in our study design and we suggest that specific studies directed at assessing marker effects are warranted. We encourage education of hunters about their roles as citizen scientists and the potentially detrimental effect of targeting birds with auxiliary markers.
