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Accurate predictions of water temperature are the foundation for many decisions and regulations, with direct impacts on water quality, fishery yields, and power production. Building accurate broadscale models for lake temperature prediction remains challenging in practice due to the variability in the data distribution across different lake systems monitored by static and timeseries data. In this paper, to tackle the above challenges, we propose a novel machine learning based approach for integrating static and timeseries data in deep recurrent models, which we call InvertibilityAwareLong ShortTerm Memory(IALSTM), and demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting lake temperature. Our proposed method integrates components of the Invertible Network and LSTM to better predict temperature profiles (forward modeling) and infer the static features (i.e., inverse modeling) that can eventually enhance the prediction when static variables are missing. We evaluate our method on predicting the temperature profile of 450 lakes in the Midwestern U.S. and report a relative improvement of 4\% to capture data heterogeneity and simultaneously outperform baseline predictions by 12\% when static features are unavailable.more » « less

Surface cleaning using commercial disinfectants, which has recently increased during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, can generate secondary indoor pollutants both in gas and aerosol phases. It can also affect indoor air quality and health, especially for workers repeatedly exposed to disinfectants. Here, we cleaned the floor of a mechanically ventilated office room using a commercial cleaner while concurrently measuring gasphase precursors, oxidants, radicals, secondary oxidation products, and aerosols in real time; these were detected within minutes after cleaner application. During cleaning, indoor monoterpene concentrations exceeded outdoor concentrations by two orders of magnitude, increasing the rate of ozonolysis under low (<10 ppb) ozone levels. High number concentrations of freshly nucleated sub–10nm particles (≥105 cm−3) resulted in respiratory tract deposited dose rates comparable to or exceeding that of inhalation of vehicleassociated aerosols.more » « less

Free, publiclyaccessible full text available November 10, 2023

de Campos, C. ; Maathuis, M. H. (Ed.)An important achievement in the field of causal inference was a complete characterization of when a causal effect, in a system modeled by a causal graph, can be determined uniquely from purely observational data. The identification algorithms resulting from this work produce exact symbolic expressions for causal effects, in terms of the observational probabilities. More recent work has looked at the numerical properties of these expressions, in particular using the classical notion of the condition number. In its classical interpretation, the condition number quantifies the sensitivity of the output values of the expressions to small numerical perturbations in the input observational probabilities. In the context of causal identification, the condition number has also been shown to be related to the effect of certain kinds of uncertainties in the structure of the causal graphical model. In this paper, we first give an upper bound on the condition number for the interesting case of causal graphical models with small “confounded components”. We then develop a tight characterization of the condition number of any given causal identification problem. Finally, we use our tight characterization to give a specific example where the condition number can be much lower than that obtained via generic bounds on the condition number, and to show that even “equivalent” expressions for causal identification can behave very differently with respect to their numerical stability properties.more » « less

An important achievement in the field of causal inference was a complete characterization of when a causal effect, in a system modeled by a causal graph, can be determined uniquely from purely observational data. The identification algorithms resulting from this work produce exact symbolic expressions for causal effects, in terms of the observational probabilities. More recent work has looked at the numerical properties of these expressions, in particular using the classical notion of the condition number. In its classical interpretation, the condition number quantifies the sensitivity of the output values of the expressions to small numerical perturbations in the input observational probabilities. In the context of causal identification, the condition number has also been shown to be related to the effect of certain kinds of uncertainties in the structure of the causal graphical model. In this paper, we first give an upper bound on the condition number for the interesting case of causal graphical models with small “confounded components”. We then develop a tight characterization of the condition number of any given causal identification problem. Finally, we use our tight characterization to give a specific example where the condition number can be much lower than that obtained via generic bounds on the condition number, and to show that even “equivalent” expressions for causal identification can behave very differently with respect to their numerical stability properties.more » « less

Free, publiclyaccessible full text available December 1, 2023

Demeniconi, Carlotta ; Davidson, Ian (Ed.)This paper proposes a physicsguided machine learning approach that combines machine learning models and physicsbased models to improve the prediction of water flow and temperature in river networks. We first build a recurrent graph network model to capture the interactions among multiple segments in the river network. Then we transfer knowledge from physicsbased models to guide the learning of the machine learning model. We also propose a new loss function that balances the performance over different river segments. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in predicting temperature and streamflow in a subset of the Delaware River Basin. In particular, the proposed method has brought a 33%/14% accuracy improvement over the stateoftheart physicsbased model and 24%/14% over traditional machine learning models (e.g., LSTM) in temperature/streamflow prediction using very sparse (0.1%) training data. The proposed method has also been shown to produce better performance when generalized to different seasons or river segments with different streamflow ranges.more » « less