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Creators/Authors contains: "Lary, David J"

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  1. Inland waters pose a unique challenge for water quality monitoring by remote sensing techniques due to their complicated spectral features and small-scale variability. At the same time, collecting the reference data needed to calibrate remote sensing data products is both time consuming and expensive. In this study, we present the further development of a robotic team composed of an uncrewed surface vessel (USV) providing in situ reference measurements and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with a hyperspectral imager. Together, this team is able to address the limitations of existing approaches by enabling the simultaneous collection of hyperspectral imagery with precisely collocated in situ data. We showcase the capabilities of this team using data collected in a northern Texas pond across three days in 2020. Machine learning models for 13 variables are trained using the dataset of paired in situ measurements and coincident reflectance spectra. These models successfully estimate physical variables including temperature, conductivity, pH, and turbidity as well as the concentrations of blue–green algae, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), chlorophyll-a, crude oil, optical brighteners, and the ions Ca2+, Cl−, and Na+. We extend the training procedure to utilize conformal prediction to estimate 90% confidence intervals for the output of each trained model. Maps generated by applying the models to the collected images reveal small-scale spatial variability within the pond. This study highlights the value of combining real-time, in situ measurements together with hyperspectral imaging for the rapid characterization of water composition. 
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  2. In this study, we present a nationwide machine learning model for hourly PM2.5 estimation for the continental United States (US) using high temporal resolution Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, meteorological variables from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and ancillary data collected between May 2017 and December 2020. A model sensitivity analysis was conducted on predictor variables to determine the optimal model. It turns out that GOES16 AOD, variables from ECMWF, and ancillary data are effective variables in PM2.5 estimation and historical reconstruction, which achieves an average mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.0 μg/m3, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.8 μg/m3. This study also found that the model performance as well as the site measured PM2.5 concentrations demonstrate strong spatial and temporal patterns. Specifically, in the temporal scale, the model performed best between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. (UTC TIME) and had the highest coefficient of determination (R2) in Autumn and the lowest MAE and RMSE in Spring. In the spatial scale, the analysis results based on ancillary data show that the R2 scores correlate positively with the mean measured PM2.5 concentration at monitoring sites. Mean measured PM2.5 concentrations are positively correlated with population density and negatively correlated with elevation. Water, forests, and wetlands are associated with low PM2.5 concentrations, whereas developed, cultivated crops, shrubs, and grass are associated with high PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, the reconstructed PM2.5 surfaces serve as an important data source for pollution event tracking and PM2.5 analysis. For this purpose, from May 2017 to December 2020, hourly PM2.5 estimates were made for 10 km by 10 km and the PM2.5 estimates from August through November 2020 during the period of California Santa Clara Unite (SCU) Lightning Complex fires are presented. Based on the quantitative and visualization results, this study reveals that a number of large wildfires in California had a profound impact on the value and spatial-temporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations. 
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  3. Abstract In this research, we present data‐driven forecasting of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) using the Long‐Short Term Memory (LSTM) deep recurrent neural network method. The random forest machine learning method was used to perform a regression analysis and estimate the variable importance of the input parameters. The input data are obtained from satellite and ground based measurements characterizing the solar‐terrestrial environment. We estimate the relative importance of 34 different parameters, including the solar flux, solar wind density, and speed the three components of interplanetary magnetic field, Lyman‐alpha, the Kp, Dst, and Polar Cap (PC) indices. The TEC measurements are taken with 15‐s cadence from an equatorial GPS station located at Bogota, Columbia (4.7110° N, 74.0721° W). The 2008–2017 data set, including the top five parameters estimated using the random forest, is used for training the machine learning models, and the 2018 data set is used for independent testing of the LSTM forecasting. The LSTM method as applied to forecast the TEC up to 5 h ahead, with 30‐min cadence. The results indicate that very good forecasts with low root mean square (RMS) error (high correlation) can be made in the near future and the RMS errors increase as we forecast further into the future. The data sources are satellite and ground based measurements characterizing the solar‐terrestrial environment. 
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