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Many policies in the US are determined locally, e.g., at the county-level. Local policy regimes provide flexibility between regions, but may become less effective in the presence of geographic spillovers, where populations circumvent local restrictions by traveling to less restricted regions nearby. Due to the endogenous nature of policymaking, there have been few opportunities to reliably estimate causal spillover effects or evaluate their impact on local policies. In this work, we identify a novel setting and develop a suitable methodology that allow us to make unconfounded estimates of spillover effects of local policies. Focusing on California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, we leverage how county-level mobility restrictions were deterministically set by public COVID-19 severity statistics, enabling a regression discontinuity design framework to estimate spillovers between counties. We estimate these effects using a mobility network with billions of timestamped edges and find significant spillover movement, with larger effects in retail, eating places, and gyms. Contrasting local and global policy regimes, our spillover estimates suggest that county-level restrictions are only 54% as effective as statewide restrictions at reducing mobility. However, an intermediate strategy of macro-county restrictions—where we optimize county partitions by solving a minimum k-cut problem on a graph weighted by ourmore »spillover estimates— can recover over 90% of statewide mobility reductions, while maintaining substantial flexibility between counties.« less

Label Propagation Algorithm (LPA) and Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCN) are both message passing algorithms on graphs. Both solve the task of node classification, but LPA propagates node label information across the edges of the graph, while GCN propagates and transforms node feature information. However, while conceptually similar, theoretical relationship between LPA and GCN has not yet been systematically investigated. Moreover, it is unclear how LPA and GCN can be combined under a unified framework to improve the performance. Here we study the relationship between LPA and GCN in terms of feature/label influence , in which we characterize how much the initial feature/label of one node influences the final feature/label of another node in GCN/LPA. Based on our theoretical analysis, we propose an end-to-end model that combines GCN and LPA. In our unified model, edge weights are learnable, and the LPA serves as regularization to assist the GCN in learning proper edge weights that lead to improved performance. Our model can also be seen as learning the weights of edges based on node labels, which is more direct and efficient than existing feature-based attention models or topology-based diffusion models. In a number of experiments for semi-supervised node classification and knowledge-graph-aware recommendation,more »our model shows superiority over state-of-the-art baselines.« less

Abstract An unhealthy diet is a major risk factor for chronic diseases including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer 1–4 . Limited access to healthy food options may contribute to unhealthy diets 5,6 . Studying diets is challenging, typically restricted to small sample sizes, single locations, and non-uniform design across studies, and has led to mixed results on the impact of the food environment 7–23 . Here we leverage smartphones to track diet health, operationalized through the self-reported consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, fast food and soda, as well as body-mass index status in a country-wide observational study of 1,164,926 U.S. participants (MyFitnessPal app users) and 2.3 billion food entries to study the independent contributions of fast food and grocery store access, income and education to diet health outcomes. This study constitutes the largest nationwide study examining the relationship between the food environment and diet to date. We find that higher access to grocery stores, lower access to fast food, higher income and college education are independently associated with higher consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables, lower consumption of fast food and soda, and lower likelihood of being affected by overweight and obesity. However, these associations vary significantlymore »across zip codes with predominantly Black, Hispanic or white populations. For instance, high grocery store access has a significantly larger association with higher fruit and vegetable consumption in zip codes with predominantly Hispanic populations (7.4% difference) and Black populations (10.2% difference) in contrast to zip codes with predominantly white populations (1.7% difference). Policy targeted at improving food access, income and education may increase healthy eating, but intervention allocation may need to be optimized for specific subpopulations and locations.« less

Embeddings, low-dimensional vector representation of objects, are fundamental in building modern machine learning systems. In industrial settings, there is usually an embedding team that trains an embedding model to solve intended tasks (e.g., product recommendation). The produced embeddings are then widely consumed by consumer teams to solve their unintended tasks (e.g., fraud detection). However, as the embedding model gets updated and retrained to improve performance on the intended task, the newly-generated embeddings are no longer compatible with the existing consumer models. This means that historical versions of the embeddings can never be retired or all consumer teams have to retrain their models to make them compatible with the latest version of the embeddings, both of which are extremely costly in practice. Here we study the problem of embedding version updates and their backward compatibility. We formalize the problem where the goal is for the embedding team to keep updating the embedding version, while the consumer teams do not have to retrain their models. We develop a solution based on learning backward compatible embeddings, which allows the embedding model version to be updated frequently, while also allowing the latest version of the embedding to be quickly transformed into any backward compatiblemore »historical version of it, so that consumer teams do not have to retrain their models. Our key idea is that whenever a new embedding model is trained, we learn it together with a light-weight backward compatibility transformation that aligns the new embedding to the previous version of it. Our learned backward transformations can then be composed to produce any historical version of embedding. Under our framework, we explore six methods and systematically evaluate them on a real-world recommender system application. We show that the best method, which we call BC-Aligner, maintains backward compatibility with existing unintended tasks even after multiple model version updates. Simultaneously, BC-Aligner achieves the intended task performance similar to the embedding model that is solely optimized for the intended task.« less

Knowledge graphs (KGs) capture knowledge in the form of head– relation–tail triples and are a crucial component in many AI systems. There are two important reasoning tasks on KGs: (1) single-hop knowledge graph completion, which involves predicting individual links in the KG; and (2), multi-hop reasoning, where the goal is to predict which KG entities satisfy a given logical query. Embedding-based methods solve both tasks by first computing an embedding for each entity and relation, then using them to form predictions. However, existing scalable KG embedding frameworks only support single-hop knowledge graph completion and cannot be applied to the more challenging multi-hop reasoning task. Here we present Scalable Multi-hOp REasoning (SMORE), the first general framework for both single-hop and multi-hop reasoning in KGs. Using a single machine SMORE can perform multi-hop reasoning in Freebase KG (86M entities, 338M edges), which is 1,500× larger than previously considered KGs. The key to SMORE’s runtime performance is a novel bidirectional rejection sampling that achieves a square root reduction of the complexity of online training data generation. Furthermore, SMORE exploits asynchronous scheduling, overlapping CPU-based data sampling, GPU-based embedding computation, and frequent CPU–GPU IO. SMORE increases throughput (i.e., training speed) over prior multi-hop KG frameworksmore »by 2.2× with minimal GPU memory requirements (2GB for training 400-dim embeddings on 86M-node Freebase) and achieves near linear speed-up with the number of GPUs. Moreover, on the simpler single-hop knowledge graph completion task SMORE achieves comparable or even better runtime performance to state-of-the-art frameworks on both single GPU and multi-GPU settings.« less

Language model (LM) pretraining can learn various knowledge from text corpora, helping downstream tasks. However, existing methods such as BERT model a single document, and do not capture dependencies or knowledge that span across documents. In this work, we propose LinkBERT, an LM pretraining method that leverages links between documents, e.g., hyperlinks. Given a text corpus, we view it as a graph of documents and create LM inputs by placing linked documents in the same context. We then pretrain the LM with two joint self-supervised objectives: masked language modeling and our new proposal, document relation prediction. We show that LinkBERT outperforms BERT on various downstream tasks across two domains: the general domain (pretrained on Wikipedia with hyperlinks) and biomedical domain (pretrained on PubMed with citation links). LinkBERT is especially effective for multi-hop reasoning and few-shot QA (+5% absolute improvement on HotpotQA and TriviaQA), and our biomedical LinkBERT sets new states of the art on various BioNLP tasks (+7% on BioASQ and USMLE).

A fundamental limitation of applying semi-supervised learning in real-world settings is the assumption that unlabeled test data contains only classes previously encountered in the labeled training data. However, this assumption rarely holds for data in-the-wild, where instances belonging to novel classes may appear at testing time. Here, we introduce a novel open-world semi-supervised learning setting that formalizes the notion that novel classes may appear in the unlabeled test data. In this novel setting, the goal is to solve the class distribution mismatch between labeled and unlabeled data, where at the test time every input instance either needs to be classified into one of the existing classes or a new unseen class needs to be initialized. To tackle this challenging problem, we propose ORCA, an end-to-end deep learning approach that introduces uncertainty adaptive margin mechanism to circumvent the bias towards seen classes caused by learning discriminative features for seen classes faster than for the novel classes. In this way, ORCA reduces the gap between intra-class variance of seen with respect to novel classes. Experiments on image classification datasets and a single-cell annotation dataset demonstrate that ORCA consistently outperforms alternative baselines, achieving 25% improvement on seen and 96% improvement on novel classesmore »of the ImageNet dataset.« less

Simulating the time evolution of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) of large-scale systems is crucial in many scientific and engineering domains such as fluid dynamics, weather forecasting and their inverse optimization problems. However, both classical solvers and recent deep learning-based surrogate models are typically extremely computationally intensive, because of their local evolution: they need to update the state of each discretized cell at each time step during inference. Here we develop Latent Evolution of PDEs (LE-PDE), a simple, fast and scalable method to accelerate the simulation and inverse optimization of PDEs. LE-PDE learns a compact, global representation of the system and efficiently evolves it fully in the latent space with learned latent evolution models. LE-PDE achieves speedup by having a much smaller latent dimension to update during long rollout as compared to updating in the input space. We introduce new learning objectives to effectively learn such latent dynamics to ensure long-term stability. We further introduce techniques for speeding-up inverse optimization of boundary conditions for PDEs via backpropagation through time in latent space, and an annealing technique to address the non-differentiability and sparse interaction of boundary conditions. We test our method in a 1D benchmark of nonlinear PDEs, 2D Navier-Stokes flows intomore »turbulent phase and an inverse optimization of boundary conditions in 2D Navier-Stokes flow. Compared to state-of-the-art deep learning-based surrogate models and other strong baselines, we demonstrate up to 128x reduction in the dimensions to update, and up to 15x improvement in speed, while achieving competitive accuracy.« less

Abstract Most diseases disrupt multiple proteins, and drugs treat such diseases by restoring the functions of the disrupted proteins. How drugs restore these functions, however, is often unknown as a drug’s therapeutic effects are not limited to the proteins that the drug directly targets. Here, we develop the multiscale interactome, a powerful approach to explain disease treatment. We integrate disease-perturbed proteins, drug targets, and biological functions into a multiscale interactome network. We then develop a random walk-based method that captures how drug effects propagate through a hierarchy of biological functions and physical protein-protein interactions. On three key pharmacological tasks, the multiscale interactome predicts drug-disease treatment, identifies proteins and biological functions related to treatment, and predicts genes that alter a treatment’s efficacy and adverse reactions. Our results indicate that physical interactions between proteins alone cannot explain treatment since many drugs treat diseases by affecting the biological functions disrupted by the disease rather than directly targeting disease proteins or their regulators. We provide a general framework for explaining treatment, even when drugs seem unrelated to the diseases they are recommended for.