Search for: All records

Season length and its associated variables can influence the expression of social behaviours, including the occurrence of eusociality in insects. Eusociality can vary widely across environmental gradients, both within and between different species. Numerous theoretical models have been developed to examine the life history traits that underlie the emergence and maintenance of eusociality, yet the impact of seasonality on this process is largely uncharacterized. Here, we present a theoretical model that incorporates season length and offspring development time into a single, individual-focused model to examine how these factors can shape the costs and benefits of social living. We find that longer season lengths and faster brood development times are sufficient to favour the emergence and maintenance of a social strategy, while shorter seasons favour a solitary one. We also identify a range of season lengths where social and solitary strategies can coexist. Moreover, our theoretical predictions are well matched to the natural history and behaviour of two flexibly eusocial bee species, suggesting that our model can make realistic predictions about the evolution of different social strategies. Broadly, this work reveals the crucial role that environmental conditions can have in shaping social behaviour and its evolution and it underscores the need for further models that explicitly incorporate such variation to study the evolutionary trajectories of eusociality. 

The multiple immunity responses exhibited in the population and co-circulating variants documented during pandemics show a high potential to generate diverse long-term epidemiological scenarios. Transmission variability, immune uncertainties and human behaviour are crucial features for the predictability and implementation of effective mitigation strategies. Nonetheless, the effects of individual health incentives on disease dynamics are not well understood. We use a behavioural-immuno-epidemiological model to study the joint evolution of human behaviour and epidemic dynamics for different immunity scenarios. Our results reveal a trade-off between the individuals’ immunity levels and the behavioural responses produced. We find that adaptive human behaviour can avoid dynamical resonance by avoiding large outbreaks, producing subsequent uniform outbreaks. Our forward-looking behaviour model shows an optimal planning horizon that minimizes the epidemic burden by balancing the individual risk–benefit trade-off. We find that adaptive human behaviour can compensate for differential immunity levels, equalizing the epidemic dynamics for scenarios with diverse underlying immunity landscapes. Our model can adequately capture complex empirical behavioural dynamics observed during pandemics. We tested our model for different US states during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we explored extensions of our modelling framework that incorporate the effects of lockdowns, the emergence of a novel variant, prosocial attitudes and pandemic fatigue. 

Abstract Season length and its associated variables can influence the expression of social behaviors, including the occurrence of eusociality in insects. Eusociality can vary widely across environmental gradients, both within and between different species. Numerous theoretical models have been developed to examine the life history traits that underlie the emergence and maintenance of eusociality, yet the impact of seasonality on this process is largely uncharacterized. Here, we present a theoretical model that incorporates season length and offspring development time into a single, individual-focused model to examine how these factors can shape the costs and benefits of social living. We find that longer season lengths and faster brood development times are sufficient to favor the emergence and maintenance of a social strategy, while shorter seasons favor a solitary one. We also identify a range of season lengths where social and solitary strategies can coexist. Moreover, our theoretical predictions are well-matched to the natural history and behavior of two flexibly-eusocial bee species, suggesting our model can make realistic predictions about the evolution of different social strategies. Broadly, this work reveals the crucial role that environmental conditions can have in shaping social behavior and its evolution and underscores the need for further models that explicitly incorporate such variation to study evolutionary trajectories of eusociality. 

Abstract Phytoplankton stoichiometry modulates the interaction between carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. Environmentally driven variations in phytoplankton C:N:P can alter biogeochemical cycling compared to expectations under fixed ratios. In fact, the assumption of fixed C:N:P has been linked to Earth System Model (ESM) biases and potential misrepresentation of responses to future change. Here we integrate key elements of the Adaptive Trait Optimization Model (ATOM) for phytoplankton stoichiometry with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) ocean biogeochemical model. Within a series of global ocean‐ice‐ecosystem retrospective simulations, ATOM‐COBALT reproduced observations of phytoplankton N:P, and compared to static ratios, exhibited reduced phytoplankton P‐limitation, enhanced N‐fixation, and increased low‐latitude export, improving consistency with observations and highlighting the biogeochemical implications of dynamic N:P. We applied ATOM‐COBALT to explore the impacts of different physiological mechanisms hypothesized to underlie N:P variation, finding that two mechanisms together drove the observed patterns: proportionality of P‐rich ribosomes in phytoplankton cells to growth rates and reductions in P‐storage during scarcity. A third mechanism which linked temperature with phytoplankton biomass allocations to non‐ribosomal proteins, led only to relatively modest impacts because this mechanism decreased the temperature dependence of phytoplankton growth rates, compensating for changes in N:P. We find that there are quantitative response differences that associate distinctive biogeochemical footprints with each mechanism, which are most apparent in highly productive low‐latitude regions. These results suggest that variable phytoplankton N:P makes phytoplankton productivity and export resilient to environmental changes, and support further research on the physiological and environmental drivers of phytoplankton stoichiometry and biogeochemical role. 

The dynamics of ecological communities in nature are typically characterized by probabilistic processes involving invasion dynamics. Because of technical challenges, however, the majority of theoretical and experimental studies have focused on coexistence dynamics. Therefore, it has become central to understand the extent to which coexistence outcomes can be used to predict analogous invasion outcomes relevant to systems in nature. Here, we study the limits to this predictability under a geometric and probabilistic Lotka– Volterra framework. We show that while individual survival probability in coexistence dynamics can be fairly closely translated into invader colonization probability in invasion dynamics, the translation is less precise between community persistence and community augmentation, and worse between exclusion probability and replacement probability. These results provide a guiding and testable theoretical framework regarding the translatability of outcomes between coexistence and invasion outcomes when communities are represented by Lotka–Volterra dynamics under environmental uncertainty. 

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a considerable number of infections and associated morbidity and mortality across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with the onset of large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-changing population-level immunological landscapes. In turn, these complexities have highlighted a number of important unknowns related to the breadth and strength of immunity following recovery or vaccination. Using simple mathematical models, we investigate the medium-term impacts of waning immunity against severe disease on immuno-epidemiological dynamics. We find that uncertainties in the duration of severity-blocking immunity (imparted by either infection or vaccination) can lead to a large range of medium-term population-level outcomes (i.e. infection characteristics and immune landscapes). Furthermore, we show that epidemiological dynamics are sensitive to the strength and duration of underlying host immune responses; this implies that determining infection levels from hospitalizations requires accurate estimates of these immune parameters. More durable vaccines both reduce these uncertainties and alleviate the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in pessimistic outcomes. However, heterogeneity in vaccine uptake drastically changes immune landscapes toward larger fractions of individuals with waned severity-blocking immunity. In particular, if hesitancy is substantial, more robust vaccines have almost no effects on population-level immuno-epidemiology, even if vaccination rates are compensatorily high among vaccine-adopters. This pessimistic scenario for vaccination heterogeneity arises because those few individuals that are vaccine-adopters are so readily re-vaccinated that the duration of vaccinal immunity has no appreciable consequences on their immune status. Furthermore, we find that this effect is heightened if vaccine-hesitants have increased transmissibility (e.g. due to riskier behavior). Overall, our results illustrate the necessity to characterize both transmission-blocking and severity-blocking immune time scales. Our findings also underline the importance of developing robust next-generation vaccines with equitable mass vaccine deployment. 

Abstract We analyze a spatially extended version of a well-known model of forest-savanna dynamics, which presents as a system of nonlinear partial integro-differential equations, and study necessary conditions for pattern-forming bifurcations. Homogeneous solutions dominate the dynamics of the standard forest-savanna model, regardless of the length scales of the various spatial processes considered. However, several different pattern-forming scenarios are possible upon including spatial resource limitation, such as competition for water, soil nutrients, or herbivory effects. Using numerical simulations and continuation, we study the nature of the resulting patterns as a function of system parameters and length scales, uncovering subcritical pattern-forming bifurcations and observing significant regions of multistability for realistic parameter regimes. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of extant savanna-forest modeling efforts and highlight ongoing challenges in building a unifying mathematical model for savannas across different rainfall levels.