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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 6, 2024
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  4. The goal of causal mediation analysis, often described within the potential outcomes framework, is to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest along different causal pathways. Using the assumption of sequential ignorability to attain non-parametric identification, Imai et al. (2010) proposed a flexible approach to measuring mediation effects, focusing on parametric and semiparametric normal/Bernoulli models for the outcome and mediator. Less attention has been paid to the case where the outcome and/or mediator model are mixed-scale, ordinal, or otherwise fall outside the normal/Bernoulli setting. We develop a simple, but flexible, parametric modeling framework to accommodate the common situation where the responses are mixed continuous and binary, and, apply it to a zero-one inflated beta model for the outcome and mediator. Applying our proposed methods to the publicly-available JOBS II dataset, we (i) argue for the need for non-normal models, (ii) show how to estimate both average and quantile mediation effects for boundary-censored data, and (iii) show how to conduct a meaningful sensitivity analysis by introducing unidentified, scientifically meaningful, sensitivity parameters.

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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 1, 2024
  5. Abstract

    Causal inference practitioners have increasingly adopted machine learning techniques with the aim of producing principled uncertainty quantification for causal effects while minimizing the risk of model misspecification. Bayesian nonparametric approaches have attracted attention as well, both for their flexibility and their promise of providing natural uncertainty quantification. Priors on high‐dimensional or nonparametric spaces, however, can often unintentionally encode prior information that is at odds with substantive knowledge in causal inference—specifically, the regularization required for high‐dimensional Bayesian models to work can indirectly imply that the magnitude of the confounding is negligible. In this paper, we explain this problem and provide tools for (i) verifying that the prior distribution does not encode an inductive bias away from confounded models and (ii) verifying that the posterior distribution contains sufficient information to overcome this issue if it exists. We provide a proof‐of‐concept on simulated data from a high‐dimensional probit‐ridge regression model, and illustrate on a Bayesian nonparametric decision tree ensemble applied to a large medical expenditure survey.

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  6. Abstract

    In causal inference problems, one is often tasked with estimating causal effects which are analytically intractable functionals of the data‐generating mechanism. Relevant settings include estimating intention‐to‐treat effects in longitudinal problems with missing data or computing direct and indirect effects in mediation analysis. One approach to computing these effects is to use theg‐formula implemented via Monte Carlo integration; when simulation‐based methods such as the nonparametric bootstrap or Markov chain Monte Carlo are used for inference, Monte Carlo integration must be nested within an already computationally intensive algorithm. We develop a widely‐applicable approach to accelerating this Monte Carlo integration step which greatly reduces the computational burden of existingg‐computation algorithms. We refer to our method as acceleratedg‐computation (AGC). The algorithms we present are similar in spirit to multiple imputation, but require removing within‐imputation variance from the standard error rather than adding it. We illustrate the use of AGC on a mediation analysis problem using a beta regression model and in a longitudinal clinical trial subject to nonignorable missingness using a Bayesian additive regression trees model.

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  7. Abstract

    In this paper, we consider sequentially estimating the density of univariate data. We utilize Pólya trees to develop a statistical process control (SPC) methodology. Our proposed methodology monitors the distribution of the sequentially observed data and detects when the generating density differs from an in‐control standard. We also propose an approximation that merges the probability mass of multiple possible changepoints to curb computational complexity while maintaining the accuracy of the monitoring procedure. We show in simulation experiments that our approach is capable of quickly detecting when a changepoint has occurred while controlling the number of false alarms, and performs well relative to competing methods. We then use our methodology to detect changepoints in high‐frequency foreign exchange (Forex) return data.

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