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ABSTRACT Spatial synchrony, the tendency for temporal fluctuations in an ecological variable to be positively associated in different locations, is a widespread and important phenomenon in ecology. Understanding of the nature and mechanisms of synchrony, and how synchrony is changing, has developed rapidly over the past 2 decades. Many recent developments have taken place through the study of long‐term data sets. Here, we review and synthesise some important recent advances in spatial synchrony, with a focus on how long‐term data have facilitated new understanding. Longer time series do not just facilitate better testing of existing ideas or more precise statistical results; more importantly, they also frequently make possible the expansion of conceptual paradigms. We discuss several such advances in our understanding of synchrony, how long‐term data led to these advances, and how future studies can continue to improve the state of knowledge. 

Abstract Between 1992 and 2018, the breeding population of Adélie penguins around Anvers Island, Antarctica declined by 98%. In this region, natural climate variability drives five‐year cycling in marine phytoplankton productivity, leading to phase‐offset five‐year cycling in the size of the krill population. We demonstrate that the rate of change of the Adélie breeding population also shows five‐year cycling. We link this population response to cyclical krill scarcity, a phenomenon which appears to have arisen from the interaction between climate variability and climate change trends. Modeling suggests that, since at least 1980, natural climate variability has driven cycling in this marine system. However, anthropogenic climate change has shifted conditions so that fewer years in each cycle now prompt strong krill recruitment, triggering intervals of krill scarcity that result in drastic declines in Adélie penguins. Our results imply that climate change can amplify the impacts of natural climate oscillations across trophic levels, driving cycling across species and disrupting food webs. The findings indicate that climate variability plays an integral role in driving ecosystem dynamics under climate change.