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Abstract The Miocene (∼23–5 Ma) is a past warm epoch when global surface temperatures varied between ∼5 and 8°C warmer than today, and CO2concentration was ∼400–800 ppm. The narrowing/closing of the tropical ocean gateways and widening of high‐latitude gateways throughout the Miocene is likely responsible for the evolution of the ocean's overturning circulation to its modern structure, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we investigate early and middle Miocene ocean circulation in an opportunistic climate model intercomparison (MioMIP1), using 14 simulations with different paleogeography, CO2, and vegetation. The strength of the Southern Ocean‐driven Meridional Overturning Circulation (SOMOC) bottom cell is similar in the Miocene and Pre‐Industrial (PI) but dominates the Miocene global MOC due to weaker Northern Hemisphere overturning. The Miocene Atlantic MOC (AMOC) is weaker than PI in all the simulations (by 2–21 Sv), possibly due to its connection with an Arctic that is considerably fresher than today. Deep overturning in the North Pacific (PMOC) is present in three simulations (∼5–10 Sv), of which two have a weaker AMOC, and one has a stronger AMOC (compared to its PMOC). Surface freshwater fluxes control northern overturning such that the basin with the least freshwater gain has stronger overturning. While the orography, which impacts runoff direction (Pacific vs. Atlantic), has an inconsistent impact on northern overturning across simulations, overall, features associated with the early Miocene—such as a lower Tibetan Plateau, the Rocky Mountains, and a deeper Panama Seaway—seem to favor PMOC over AMOC.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available April 1, 2026
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Abstract The Miocene (∼23–5 Ma) experienced substantial paleogeographic changes, including the shoaling of the Panama Seaway and closure of the Tethys Seaway, which altered exchange pathways between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Changes in continental configuration and topography likely also influenced global wind patterns. Here, we investigate how these changes affected surface wind‐driven gyre circulation and interbasin volume transport using 14 fully coupled climate model simulations of the early and middle Miocene. The North and South Atlantic gyres, along with the South Pacific gyre, are weaker in the Miocene simulations compared to pre‐industrial (PI), while the North Pacific gyres are stronger. These changes largely follow the wind stress curl and basin width changes. Westward flow through the Panama Seaway occurs only in early Miocene simulations when the Tethys Seaway is open and transports are strongly westward. As the Tethys transport declines, flow across the Panama Seaway gradually reverses from westward (into the Pacific) to eastward (into the Atlantic). In simulations with a closed Tethys Seaway, the Panama transport is consistently eastward. The Southern Hemisphere westerlies are weaker than PI in all simulations, contributing to a reduced Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in 11 of the 14 cases. In the remaining three, a stronger ACC is simulated, likely due to a combination of enhanced meridional density gradients and model‐dependent sensitivities. These findings highlight how changes in Miocene seaways and wind patterns reshaped ocean circulation, influencing interbasin exchange, thermohaline properties, and global climate.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2026
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Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth’s past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near‐surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near‐surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near‐surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near‐surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world.more » « less
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Abstract Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing.more » « less
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Abstract Climate models require boundary condition information, such as vegetation and soil distributions because they influence the mean state climate, and feedbacks can significantly influence regional climate and climate sensitivity to CO2forcing. Information about past distributions comes primarily from the paleobotanical record, which is often supplemented by a vegetation model to fill data gaps. For recent past periods such as the Pliocene, a quantitative suitability assessment of these vegetation model simulations is sufficient. However, the Miocene Climate Optimum spanning 16.9–14.7 Ma was the warmest period on Earth over the last ∼25 million years and models struggle to reproduce those conditions for the range of paleogeographies and CO2concentrations tested, particularly at high latitudes. Here we bring together the Miocene modeling and data communities to update previous vegetation reconstructions used for climate modeling with a new regional approach that relaxes the requirement for a single model simulation to be used, blending instead simulations forced by different paleogeographies and CO2concentrations. This ensures the simulated vegetation is first, and foremost, consistent with the paleorecord and provides a baseline for future comparisons. The reconstruction shows global increases in forest cover at all latitudes as compared to today and extensive C3grasslands across the high northern latitudes. Data gaps at high latitudes are filled with vegetation models forced by higher CO2concentrations than were required at lower latitudes consistent with the inability of current models to simulate Miocene high latitude warmth.more » « less
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