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Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawaiʻi that we integrate with geospatial analysis of drought characteristics using a newly developed 100-year (1920–2019) gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dataset. The synthesis examines past droughts classified into five categories: Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Results show that drought duration and magnitude have increased significantly, consistent with trends found in other Pacific Islands. We found that most droughts were associated with El Niño events, and the two worst droughts of the past century were multi-year events occurring in 1998–2002 and 2007–2014. The former event was most severe on the islands of O’ahu and Kaua’i while the latter event was most severe on Hawaiʻi Island. Within islands, we found different spatial patterns depending on leeward versus windward contrasts. Droughts have resulted in over $80 million in agricultural relief since 1996 and have increased wildfire risk, especially during El Niño years. In addition to providing the historical context needed to better understand future drought projections and to develop effective policies and management strategies to protect natural, cultural, hydrological, and agricultural resources, this work provides a framework for conducting drought analyses in other tropical island systems, especially those with a complex topography and strong climatic gradients. 

Gridded air temperature data are required in various fields such as ecological modeling, weather forecasting, and surface energy balance assessment. In this work, a piecewise multiple linear regression model is used to produce high‐resolution (250 m) daily maximum (T_max), minimum (T_min), and mean (T_mean) near‐surface air temperature maps for the State of Hawaiʻi for a 32‐year period (1990–2021). Multiple meteorological and geographical variables such as the elevation, daily rainfall, coastal distance index, leaf area index, albedo, topographic position index, and wind speed are independently tested to determine the most well‐suited predictor variables for optimal model performance. During the mapping process, input data scarcity is addressed first by gap‐filling critical stations at high elevation using a predetermined linear relationship with other strongly‐correlated stations, and second, by supplementing the training dataset with station data from neighboring islands. Despite the numerous covariates physically linked to temperature, the most parsimonious model selection uses elevation as its sole predictor, and the inclusion of the additional variables results in increased cross‐validation errors. The mean absolute error of resultant estimatedT_maxandT_minmaps over the Hawaiian Islands from 1990 to 2021 is 1.7°C and 1.3°C, respectively. Corresponding bias values are 0.01°C and −0.13°C, respectively for the same variables. Overall, the results show the proposed methodology can robustly generate daily air temperature maps from point‐scale measurements over complex topography.

 

Gridded monthly rainfall estimates can be used for a number of research applications, including hydrologic modeling and weather forecasting. Automated interpolation algorithms, such as the “autoKrige” function in R, can produce gridded rainfall estimates that validate well but produce unrealistic spatial patterns. In this work, an optimized geostatistical kriging approach is used to interpolate relative rainfall anomalies, which are then combined with long-term means to develop the gridded estimates. The optimization consists of the following: 1) determining the most appropriate offset (constant) to use when log-transforming data; 2) eliminating poor quality data prior to interpolation; 3) detecting erroneous maps using a machine learning algorithm; and 4) selecting the most appropriate parameterization scheme for fitting the model used in the interpolation. Results of this effort include a 30-yr (1990–2019), high-resolution (250-m) gridded monthly rainfall time series for the state of Hawai‘i. Leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) is performed using an extensive network of 622 observation stations. LOOCV results are in good agreement with observations (R²= 0.78; MAE = 55 mm month⁻¹; 1.4%); however, predictions can underestimate high rainfall observations (bias = 34 mm month⁻¹; −1%) due to a well-known smoothing effect that occurs with kriging. This research highlights the fact that validation statistics should not be the sole source of error assessment and that default parameterizations for automated interpolation may need to be modified to produce realistic gridded rainfall surfaces. Data products can be accessed through the Hawai‘i Data Climate Portal (HCDP;http://www.hawaii.edu/climate-data-portal).

A new method is developed to map rainfall in Hawai‘i using an optimized geostatistical kriging approach. A machine learning technique is used to detect erroneous rainfall maps and several conditions are implemented to select the optimal parameterization scheme for fitting the model used in the kriging interpolation. A key finding is that optimization of the interpolation approach is necessary because maps may validate well but have unrealistic spatial patterns. This approach demonstrates how, with a moderate amount of data, a low-level machine learning algorithm can be trained to evaluate and classify an unrealistic map output.