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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available January 1, 2023
  2. Stouffer, Daniel (Ed.)
  3. Boettiger, Carl (Ed.)
  4. Abstract Understanding propagation of scintillation light is critical for maximizing the discovery potential of next-generation liquid xenon detectors that use dual-phase time projection chamber technology. This work describes a detailed optical simulation of the DARWIN detector implemented using Chroma, a GPU-based photon tracking framework. To evaluate the framework and to explore ways of maximizing efficiency and minimizing the time of light collection, we simulate several variations of the conventional detector design. Results of these selected studies are presented. More generally, we conclude that the approach used in this work allows one to investigate alternative designs faster and in more detail than using conventional Geant4 optical simulations, making it an attractive tool to guide the development of the ultimate liquid xenon observatory.
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 1, 2023
  5. Short-term forecasts of nonlinear dynamics are important for risk-assessment studies and to inform sustainable decision-making for physical, biological and financial problems, among others. Generally, the accuracy of short-term forecasts depends upon two main factors: the capacity of learning algorithms to generalize well on unseen data and the intrinsic predictability of the dynamics. While generalization skills of learning algorithms can be assessed with well-established methods, estimating the predictability of the underlying nonlinear generating process from empirical time series remains a big challenge. Here, we show that, in changing environments, the predictability of nonlinear dynamics can be associated with the time-varying stability of the system with respect to smooth changes in model parameters, i.e. its local structural stability. Using synthetic data, we demonstrate that forecasts from locally structurally unstable states in smoothly changing environments can produce significantly large prediction errors, and we provide a systematic methodology to identify these states from data. Finally, we illustrate the practical applicability of our results using an empirical dataset. Overall, this study provides a framework to associate an uncertainty level with short-term forecasts made in smoothly changing environments.
  6. ABSTRACT The timing of life history events has important fitness consequences. Since the 1950s, researchers have combined first principles and data to predict the optimal timing of life history transitions. Recently, a striking mystery has emerged. Such transitions can be shaped by a completely different branch of the tree of life: species in the microbiome. Probing these interactions using testable predictions from evolutionary theory could illuminate whether and how host-microbiome integrated life histories can evolve and be maintained. Beyond advancing fundamental science, this research program could yield important applications. In an age of microbiome engineering, understanding the contexts that lead to microbiota signaling shaping ontogeny could offer novel mechanisms for manipulations to increase yield in agriculture by manipulating plant responses to stressful environments, or to reduce pathogen transmission by affecting vector efficiency. We combine theory and evidence to illuminate the essential questions underlying the existence of mi crobiome- d ependent o ntogenetic t iming (MiDOT) to fuel research on this emerging topic.
  7. ABSTRACT A search of the first Data Release of the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) Survey discovered the exceptionally red transient VVV-WIT-01 (H − Ks = 5.2). It peaked before March 2010, then faded by ∼9.5 mag over the following 2 yr. The 1.6–22 μm spectral energy distribution in March 2010 was well fit by a highly obscured blackbody with T ∼ 1000 K and $A_{K_s} \sim 6.6$ mag. The source is projected against the Infrared Dark Cloud (IRDC) SDC G331.062−0.294. The chance projection probability is small for any single event (p ≈ 0.01–0.02), which suggests a physical association, e.g. a collision between low mass protostars. However, blackbody emission at T ∼ 1000 K is common in classical novae (especially CO novae) at the infrared peak in the light curve due to condensation of dust ∼30–60 d after the explosion. Radio follow-up with the Australia Telescope Compact Array detected a fading continuum source with properties consistent with a classical nova but probably inconsistent with colliding protostars. Considering all VVV transients that could have been projected against a catalogued IRDC raises the probability of a chance association to p = 0.13–0.24. After weighing several options, it appears likely that VVV-WIT-01 was a classical nova event locatedmore »behind an IRDC.« less
  8. Periodic spatio-temporal modulations (STM) of the elastic properties of materials are used to break time and parity symmetry of elastic waves. The shape of the STM is shown to affect band structure asymmetry, independent of its period.