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Abstract Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer has a comparatively low background rate, but it is highly variable, and its spectrum must be predicted using measurements unaffected by the science target. We describe an empirical, three-parameter model based on observations of seven pointing directions that are void of detectable sources. Two model parameters track different types of background events, while the third is used to predict a low-energy excess tied to observations conducted in sunlight. An examination of 3556 good time intervals (GTIs), averaging 570 s, yields a median rate (0.4–12 keV; 50 detectors) of 0.87 c s −1 , but in 5% (1%) of cases, the rate exceeds 10 (300) c s −1 . Model residuals persist at 20%–30% of the initial rate for the brightest GTIs, implying one or more missing model parameters. Filtering criteria are given to flag GTIs likely to have unsatisfactory background predictions. With such filtering, we estimate a detection limit, 1.20 c s −1 (3 σ , single GTI) at 0.4–12 keV, equivalent to 3.6 × 10 −12 erg cm −2 s −1 for a Crab-like spectrum. The corresponding limit for soft X-ray sources is 0.51 c s −1 at 0.3–2.0 keV, or 4.3 × 10 −13 erg cm −2 s −1 for a 100 eV blackbody. These limits would be four times lower if exploratory GTIs accumulate 10 ks of data after filtering at the level prescribed for faint sources. Such filtering selects background GTIs 85% of the time. An application of the model to a 1 s timescale makes it possible to distinguish source flares from possible surges in the background. 

Abstract We have used X-ray data from the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) to search for long-timescale temporal correlations (“red noise”) in the pulse times of arrival (TOAs) from the millisecond pulsars PSR J1824−2452A and PSR B1937+21. These data more closely track intrinsic noise because X-rays are unaffected by the radio-frequency-dependent propagation effects of the interstellar medium. Our search yields strong evidence (natural log Bayes factor of 9.634 ± 0.016) for red noise in PSR J1824−2452A, but the search is inconclusive for PSR B1937+21. In the interest of future X-ray missions, we devise and implement a method to simulate longer and higher-precision X-ray data sets to determine the timing baseline necessary to detect red noise. We find that the red noise in PSR B1937+21 can be reliably detected in a 5 yr mission with a TOA error of 2μs and an observing cadence of 20 observations per month compared to the 5μs TOA error and 11 observations per month that NICER currently achieves in PSR B1937+21. We investigate detecting red noise in PSR B1937+21 with other combinations of observing cadences and TOA errors. We also find that time-correlated red noise commensurate with an injected stochastic gravitational-wave background having an amplitude ofA_GWB= 2 × 10⁻¹⁵and spectral index of timing residuals ofγ_GWB= 13/3 can be detected in a pulsar with similar TOA precision to PSR B1937+21. This is with no additional red noise in a 10 yr mission that observes the pulsar 15 times per month and has an average TOA error of 1μs.