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Abstract Gene tree discordance is expected in phylogenomic trees and biological processes are often invoked to explain it. However, heterogeneous levels of phylogenetic signal among individuals within data sets may cause artifactual sources of topological discordance. We examined how the information content in tips and subclades impacts topological discordance in the parrots (Order: Psittaciformes), a diverse and highly threatened clade of nearly 400 species. Using ultraconserved elements from 96% of the clade’s species-level diversity, we estimated concatenated and species trees for 382 ingroup taxa. We found that discordance among tree topologies was most common at nodes dating between the late Miocene and Pliocene, and often at the taxonomic level of the genus. Accordingly, we used two metrics to characterize information content in tips and assess the degree to which conflict between trees was being driven by lower-quality samples. Most instances of topological conflict and nonmonophyletic genera in the species tree could be objectively identified using these metrics. For subclades still discordant after tip-based filtering, we used a machine learning approach to determine whether phylogenetic signal or noise was the more important predictor of metrics supporting the alternative topologies. We found that when signal favored one of the topologies, the noise was the most important variable in poorly performing models that favored the alternative topology. In sum, we show that artifactual sources of gene tree discordance, which are likely a common phenomenon in many data sets, can be distinguished from biological sources by quantifying the information content in each tip and modeling which factors support each topology. [Historical DNA; machine learning; museomics; Psittaciformes; species tree.] 

The resolution of the Tree of Life has accelerated with advances in DNA sequencing technology. To achieve dense taxon sampling, it is often necessary to obtain DNA from historical museum specimens to supplement modern genetic samples. However, DNA from historical material is generally degraded, which presents various challenges. In this study, we evaluated how the coverage at variant sites and missing data among historical and modern samples impacts phylogenomic inference. We explored these patterns in the brush-tongued parrots (lories and lorikeets) of Australasia by sampling ultraconserved elements in 105 taxa. Trees estimated with low coverage characters had several clades where relationships appeared to be influenced by whether the sample came from historical or modern specimens, which were not observed when more stringent filtering was applied. To assess if the topologies were affected by missing data, we performed an outlier analysis of sites and loci, and a data reduction approach where we excluded sites based on data completeness. Depending on the outlier test, 0.15% of total sites or 38% of loci were driving the topological differences among trees, and at these sites, historical samples had 10.9× more missing data than modern ones. In contrast, 70% data completeness was necessary to avoid spurious relationships. Predictive modeling found that outlier analysis scores were correlated with parsimony informative sites in the clades whose topologies changed the most by filtering. After accounting for biased loci and understanding the stability of relationships, we inferred a more robust phylogenetic hypothesis for lories and lorikeets.