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Adaptive immunity is driven by specific binding of hypervariable receptors to diverse molecular targets. The sequence diversity of receptors and targets are both individually known but because multiple receptors can recognize the same target, a measure of the effective “functional” diversity of the human immune system has remained elusive. Here, we show that sequence near-coincidences within T cell receptors that bind specific epitopes provide a new window into this problem and allow the quantification of how binding probability covaries with sequence. We find that near-coincidence statistics within epitope-specific repertoires imply a measure of binding degeneracy to amino acid changes in receptor sequence that is consistent across disparate experiments. Paired data on both chains of the heterodimeric receptor are particularly revealing since simultaneous near-coincidences are rare and we show how they can be exploited to estimate the number of epitope responses that created the memory compartment. In addition, we find that paired-chain coincidences are strongly suppressed across donors with different human leukocyte antigens, evidence for a central role of antigen-driven selection in making paired chain receptors public. These results demonstrate the power of coincidence analysis to reveal the sequence determinants of epitope binding in receptor repertoires. 

The human immune system develops a memory of pathogens that it encounters over its lifetime, allowing it to respond quickly to future infections. It does this partly through T cells, white blood cells that can recognize different pathogens. During an infection, the T cells that recognize the specific pathogen attacking the body will divide until a large number of clones of these T cells is available to help in the fight. After the infection clears, the immune system ‘keeps’ some of these cells so it can recognize the pathogen in the future, and respond quicker to an infection. Over the course of their lives, people will be infected by many different pathogens, leading to a wide variety of T cells that each respond to one of these pathogens. However, it is not well understood how various infections throughout the human lifespan shape the overall population of different T cells. Gaimann et al. used mathematical modelling to study how the composition of the immune system changes in people of different ages. Different populations of T cells – each specialized against a specific antigen – had been previously identified through genetic sequencing. Gaimann et al. analyzed their dynamics to show that many of the largest populations originate around birth, during the formation of the immune system. These findings suggest a potential mechanism for how exposure to pathogens in infancy can influence the immune system much later in life. The results may also explain variations in how people respond to infections and in their risk of developing autoimmune conditions. This understanding could help develop new treatments or interventions to guide the immune system as it develops. 

An adaptive agent predicting the future state of an environment must weigh trust in new observations against prior experiences. In this light, we propose a view of the adaptive immune system as a dynamic Bayesian machinery that updates its memory repertoire by balancing evidence from new pathogen encounters against past experience of infection to predict and prepare for future threats. This framework links the observed initial rapid increase of the memory pool early in life followed by a midlife plateau to the ease of learning salient features of sparse environments. We also derive a modulated memory pool update rule in agreement with current vaccine-response experiments. Our results suggest that pathogenic environments are sparse and that memory repertoires significantly decrease infection costs, even with moderate sampling. The predicted optimal update scheme maps onto commonly considered competitive dynamics for antigen receptors. 

An essential feature of the adaptive immune system is the proliferation of antigen-specific lymphocytes during an immune reaction to form a large pool of effector cells. This proliferation must be regulated to ensure an effective response to infection while avoiding immunopathology. Recent experiments in mice have demonstrated that the expansion of a specific clone of T cells in response to cognate antigen obeys a striking inverse power law with respect to the initial number of T cells. Here, we show that such a relationship arises naturally from a model in which T cell expansion is limited by decaying levels of presented antigen. The same model also accounts for the observed dependence of T cell expansion on affinity for antigen and on the kinetics of antigen administration. Extending the model to address expansion of multiple T cell clones competing for antigen, we find that higher-affinity clones can suppress the proliferation of lower-affinity clones, thereby promoting the specificity of the response. Using the model to derive optimal vaccination protocols, we find that exponentially increasing antigen doses can achieve a nearly optimized response. We thus conclude that the dynamics of presented antigen is a key regulator of both the size and specificity of the adaptive immune response.