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Understanding of Earth’s geomagnetic environment is critical to mitigating the space weather impacts caused by disruptive geoelectric fields in power lines and other conductors on Earth’s surface. These impacts are the result of a chain of processes driven by the solar wind and linking Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere and Earth’s surface. Tremendous progress has been made over the last two decades in understanding the solar wind driving mechanisms, the coupling mechanisms connecting the magnetically controlled regions of near-Earth space, and the impacts of these collective processes on human technologies on Earth’s surface. Studies of solar wind drivers have been focused on understanding the responses of the geomagnetic environment to spatial and temporal variations in the solar wind associated with Coronal Mass Ejections, Corotating Interaction Regions, Interplanetary Shocks, High-Speed Streams, and other interplanetary magnetic field structures. Increasingly sophisticated numerical models are able to simulate the magnetospheric response to the solar wind forcing associated with these structures. Magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling remains a great challenge, although new observations and sophisticated models that can assimilate disparate data sets have improved the ability to specify the electrodynamic properties of the high latitude ionosphere. The temporal and spatial resolution needed to predict the electric fields, conductivities, and currents in the ionosphere is driving the need for further advances. These parameters are intricately tied to auroral phenomena—energy deposition due to Joule heating and precipitating particles, motions of the auroral boundary, and ion outflow. A new view of these auroral processes is emerging that focuses on small-scale structures in the magnetosphere and their ionospheric effects, which may include the rapid variations in current associated with geomagnetically induced currents and the resulting perturbations to geoelectric fields on Earth’s surface. Improvements in model development have paralleled the advancements in understanding, yielding coupled models that better replicate the spatial and temporal scales needed to simulate the interconnected domains. Many realizations of such multi-component systems are under development, each with its own limitations and advantages. Challenges remain in the ability of models to quantify uncertainties introduced by propagation of solar wind parameters, to account for numerical effects in model codes, and to handle the special conditions occurring during extreme events. The impacts to technical systems on the ground are highly sensitive to the local electric properties of Earth’s surface, as well as to the specific technology at risk. Current research is focused on understanding the characteristics of geomagnetic disturbances that are important for geomagnetically induced currents, the development of earth conductivity models, the calculation of geoelectric fields, and the modeling of induced currents in the different affected systems. Assessing and mitigating the risks to technical systems requires quantitative knowledge of the range of values to be expected under all possible geomagnetic and technical conditions. Considering the progress that has been made in studying the chain of events leading to hazardous geomagnetic disturbances, the path forward will require concerted efforts to reveal missing physics, improve modeling capabilities, and deploy new observational assets. New understanding should be targeted to accurately quantify solar wind driving, magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling, and the impacts on specific technologies. The research, modeling, and observations highlighted here provide a framework for constructing a plan by which the international science community can comprehensively address the growing threat to human technologies caused by geomagnetic disturbances. 

The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3–4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first‐principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400–500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM‐2013 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0, and DTM‐2013 suggest only ∼50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm‐time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and traveling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high‐latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics‐based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high‐latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.

 

Solar eruptions cause geomagnetic storms in the near‐Earth environment, creating spectacular aurorae visible to the human eye and invisible dynamic changes permeating all of geospace. Just equatorward of the aurora, radars and satellites often observe intense westward plasma flows called subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) in the dusk‐to‐midnight ionosphere. SAPS occur across a narrow latitudinal range and lead to intense frictional heating of the ionospheric plasma and atmospheric neutral gas. SAPS also generate small‐scale plasma waves and density irregularities that interfere with radio communications. As opposed to the commonly observed duskside SAPS, intense eastward subauroral plasma flows in the morning sector were recently discovered to have occurred during a super storm on 20 November 2003. However, the origin of these flows termed “dawnside SAPS” could not be explained by the same mechanism that causes SAPS on the duskside and has remained a mystery. Through real‐event global geospace simulations, here we demonstrate that dawnside SAPS can only occur during major storm conditions. During these times, the magnetospheric plasma convection is so strong as to effectively transport ions to the dawnside, whereas they are typically deflected to the dusk by the energy‐dependent drifts. Ring current pressure then builds up on the dawnside and drives field‐aligned currents that connect to the subauroral ionosphere, where eastward SAPS are generated. The origin of dawnside SAPS explicated in this study advances our understanding of how the geospace system responds to strongly disturbed solar wind driving conditions that can have severe detrimental impacts on human society and infrastructure.

 

An interplanetary shock can abruptly compress the magnetosphere, excite magnetospheric waves and field‐aligned currents, and cause a ground magnetic response known as a sudden commencement (SC). However, the transient (<∼1 min) response of the ionosphere‐thermosphere system during an SC has been little studied due to limited temporal resolution in previous investigations. Here, we report observations of a global reversal of ionospheric vertical plasma motion during an SC on 24 October 2011 using ∼6 s resolution Super Dual Auroral Radar Network ground scatter data. The dayside ionosphere suddenly moved downward during the magnetospheric compression due to the SC, lasting for only ∼1 min before moving upward. By contrast, the post‐midnight ionosphere briefly moved upward then moved downward during the SC. Simulations with a coupled geospace model suggest that the reversedvertical drift is caused by a global reversal of ionospheric zonal electric field induced by magnetospheric compression during the SC.

 

The role of diffuse electron precipitation in the formation of subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) is investigated with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model. Diffuse precipitation is derived from the distribution of drifting electrons. SAPS manifest themselves as a separate mesoscale flow channel in the duskside ionosphere, which gradually merges with the primary auroral convection toward dayside as the equatorward auroral boundary approaches the poleward Region‐2 field‐aligned currents (FACs) boundary. SAPS expand to lower latitudes and toward the nightside during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, associated with magnetotail earthward plasma flows building up the ring current and intensifying Region‐2 FACs and electron precipitation. SAPS shrink poleward and sunward as the interplanetary magnetic field turns northward. When diffuse precipitation is turned off in a controlled MAGE simulation, ring current and duskside Region‐2 FACs become weaker, but subauroral zonal ion drifts are still comparable to auroral convection. However, subauroral and auroral convection manifest as a single broad flow channel without showing any mesoscale structure. SAPS overlap with the downward Region‐2 FACs equatorward of diffuse precipitation, where poleward electric fields are strong due to a low conductance in the subauroral ionosphere. The Region‐2 FACs extend to latitudes lower than the diffuse precipitation because the ring current protons penetrate closer to the Earth than the electrons do. This study reproduces the key physics of SAPS formation and their evolution in the coupled magnetosphere‐ionosphere during a geomagnetic storm. Diffuse electron precipitation is demonstrated to play a critical role in determining SAPS location and structure.

 

It is well‐known that solar eclipses can significantly impact the ionosphere and thermosphere, but how an eclipse influences the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system is still unknown. Using a coupled magnetosphere‐ionosphere‐thermosphere model, we examined the impact on geospace of the northern polar‐region eclipse that occurred on June 10, 2021. The simulations reveal that the eclipse‐induced reduction in polar ionospheric conductivity causes large changes in field‐aligned current, cross‐polar cap potential and auroral activity. While such effects are expected in the northern hemisphere where solar obscuration occurred, they also occurred in the southern hemisphere through electrodynamic coupling. Eclipse‐induced changes in monoenergetic auroral precipitation differ significantly between the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere while diffuse auroral precipitation is interhemispherically symmetric. This study demonstrates that the geospace response to a polar‐region solar eclipse is not limited just to the eclipse region but has global implications.

 

As part of its International Capabilities Assessment effort, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center initiated several working teams, one of which is focused on the validation of models and methods for determining auroral electrodynamic parameters, including particle precipitation, conductivities, electric fields, neutral density and winds, currents, Joule heating, auroral boundaries, and ion outflow. Auroral electrodynamic properties are needed as input to space weather models, to test and validate the accuracy of physical models, and to provide needed information for space weather customers and researchers. The working team developed a process for validating auroral electrodynamic quantities that begins with the selection of a set of events, followed by construction of ground truth databases using all available data and assimilative data analysis techniques. Using optimized, predefined metrics, the ground truth data for selected events can be used to assess model performance and improvement over time. The availability of global observations and sophisticated data assimilation techniques provides the means to create accurate ground truth databases routinely and accurately.