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Abstract Kelp forests are one of the earth’s most productive ecosystems and are at great risk from climate change, yet little is known regarding their current conservation status and global future threats. Here, by combining a global remote sensing dataset of floating kelp forests with climate data and projections, we find that exposure to projected marine heatwaves will increase ~6 to ~16 times in the long term (2081–2100) compared to contemporary (2001–2020) exposure. While exposure will intensify across all regions, some southern hemisphere areas which have lower exposure to contemporary and projected marine heatwaves may provide climate refugia for floating kelp forests. Under these escalating threats, less than 3% of global floating kelp forests are currently within highly restrictive marine protected areas (MPAs), the most effective MPAs for protecting biodiversity. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to increase the global protection of floating kelp forests and set bolder climate adaptation goals. 

The global food production system is increasingly strained by abrupt and unpredictable weather events, which hinder communities' ability to adapt to climate variations. Despite advances in meteorological predictions, many communities lack the academic knowledge or infrastructure to interpret these complex models. This gap highlights the need for solutions that make climate forecasts more accessible and actionable, especially for communities reliant on natural resources. This study explores the potential of enhancing seasonal climate forecasts by integrating local ecological knowledge (LEK) with scientific data. Specifically, we combined ethnobiological information gathered between 2022 and 2024 with existing oceanographic and ecological data to create an ethnobiological calendar for four fishing cooperatives. An ethnographic approach was used to understand the population's ethnobiological knowledge and their perceptions of marine heatwaves and climate change impacts. Coastal monitoring data was collected using moorings that recorded temperature over a 14-year period (2010–2024). To characterize giant kelp dynamics, we used an existing dataset of multispectral Landsat images, which estimates the surface canopy biomass of giant kelp forests. Ecological monitoring was conducted annually every summer from 2006 to 2023 to record the in situ abundance of ecologically and economically important invertebrate and fish species. Combining oceanographic, ecological, and ethnographic data, allowed for alligning fishers' observations with recorded marine heatwave events and ecological shifts. Our findings revealed that these observations closely matched documented marine heatwave data and corresponding ecological changes. The integration of LEK with scientific oceanographic data can significantly improved our understanding of dynamic climate regimes, offering contextually relevant information that enhances the reliability and utility of seasonal climate forecasts. By incorporating yearly data into an ethnobiological calendar, we promote more inclusive, community-based approaches to environmental management, advocating for the integration of LEK in climate adaptation efforts, emphasizing its crucial role in strengthening resilience strategies against climatic shocks. 

Blue food systems are crucial for meeting global social and environmental goals. Both small-scale marine fisheries (SSFs) and aquaculture contribute to these goals, with SSFs supporting hundreds of millions of people and aquaculture currently expanding in the marine environment. Here we examine the interactions between SSFs and aquaculture, and the possible combined benefits and trade-offs of these interactions, along three pathways: (1) resource access and rights allocation; (2) markets and supply chains; and (3) exposure to and management of risks. Analysis of 46 diverse case studies showcase positive and negative interaction outcomes, often through competition for space or in the marketplace, which are context-dependent and determined by multiple factors, as further corroborated by qualitative modeling. Results of our mixed methods approach underscore the need to anticipate and manage interactions between SSFs and aquaculture deliberately to avoid negative socio-economic and environmental outcomes, promote synergies to enhance food production and other benefits, and ensure equitable benefit distribution. 

Abstract In an ocean that is rapidly warming and losing oxygen, accurate forecasting of species’ responses must consider how this environmental change affects fundamental aspects of their physiology. Here, we develop an absolute metabolic index (Φ A ) that quantifies how ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and organismal mass interact to constrain the total oxygen budget an organism can use to fuel sustainable levels of aerobic metabolism. We calibrate species-specific parameters of Φ A with physiological measurements for red abalone ( Haliotis rufescens ) and purple urchin ( Strongylocentrotus purpuratus ). Φ A models highlight that the temperature where oxygen supply is greatest shifts cooler when water loses oxygen or organisms grow larger, providing a mechanistic explanation for observed thermal preference patterns. Viable habitat forecasts are disproportionally deleterious for red abalone, revealing how species-specific physiologies modulate the intensity of a common climate signal, captured in the newly developed Φ A framework.