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Species' distributions and abundances are shifting in response to climate change. Most species harbor microbial symbionts that have the potential to influence these responses. Mutualistic microbial symbionts may provide resilience to environmental change by protecting their hosts from increasing stress. However, environmental change that disrupts these interactions may lead to declines in hosts or symbionts. Microbes preserved within herbarium specimens offer a unique opportunity to quantify changes in microbial symbiosis across broad temporal and spatial scales. We asked how the prevalence of seed-transmitted fungal symbionts of grasses (Epichloe endophytes), which can protect hosts from abiotic stress, have changed over time in response to climate change, and how these changes vary across host species' ranges. Specifically, we analyzed 2,346 herbarium specimens of three grass host species collected over the last two centuries (1824 -- 2019) for the presence or absence of endophyte symbiosis, and evaluated spatial and temporal trends in endophyte prevalence. We found that endophytes increased in prevalence over the last two centuries from ca. 25% prevalence to ca. 75% prevalence, on average, across three host species. We also found that changes in prevalence were associated with observed changes in seasonal climate drivers; notably increasing precipitation corresponding to each host species' peak growing season and changes in off-peak season variability in precipitation. Our analysis performed favorably in an out-of-sample predictive test with contemporary data, however we identified greater local-scale variability in endophyte prevalence in contemporary data compared to historic data, suggesting that model fusion may be an important step moving forward. Our results provide novel evidence for a cryptic biological response to climate change that may contribute to the resilience of host-microbe symbiosis through context-dependent benefits that confer a fitness advantage to symbiotic hosts under environmental change. 

We designed novel field experimental infrastructure to resolve the relative importance of changes in the climate mean and variance in regulating the structure and function of dryland populations, communities, and ecosystem processes. The Mean x Variance Experiment (MVE) adds three novel elements to prior designs (Gherardi & Sala 2013) that have manipulated interannual variance in climate in the field by (i) determining interactive effects of mean and variance with a factorial design that crosses a drier mean with increased (more) variance, (ii) studying multiple dryland ecosystem types to compare their susceptibility to transition under interactive climate drivers, and (iii) adding stochasticity to our treatments to permit the antecedent effects that occur under natural climate variability. This new infrastructure enables direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that interactions between the mean and variance of precipitation will have larger ecological impacts than either the mean or variance in precipitation alone. A subset of plots have soil moisture and temperature sensors to evaluate treatment effectiveness by addressing, How do MVE manipulations alter the mean and variance in soil moisture and temperature? And, how does micro-environmental variation among plots influence how much MVE treatments alter soil moisture profiles over three soil depths? This data package includes soil moisture and temperature sensor data from the Mean x Variance Climate experiment in the Desert grassland ecosystem at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, Socorro, NM. 

We designed novel field experimental infrastructure to resolve the relative importance of changes in the climate mean and variance in regulating the structure and function of dryland populations, communities, and ecosystem processes. The Mean - Variance Experiment (MVE) adds three novel elements to prior designs that have manipulated interannual variance in climate in the field (Gherardi & Sala, 2013) by (i) determining interactive effects of mean and variance with a factorial design that crosses reduced mean with increased variance, (ii) studying multiple dryland biomes to compare their susceptibility to transition under interactive climate drivers, and (iii) adding stochasticity to our treatments to permit the antecedent effects that occur under natural climate variability. This new infrastructure enables direct experimental tests of the hypothesis that interactions between the mean and variance of precipitation will have larger ecological impacts than either the mean or variance in precipitation alone. A subset of plots have soil moisture and temperature sensors to evaluate treatment effectiveness by addressing, How do MVE manipulations alter the mean and variance in soil moisture and temperature? And How does micro-environmental variation among plots influence how treatments alter soil moisture profiles over three soil depths? This data package includes sensor data from the Mean x Variance experiment in the Plains grassland ecosystem at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, Socorro, NM, which is dominated by the grass species Bouteloua gracilis (blue grama). 

{"Abstract":["The encroachment of woody plants into grasslands is a global\n phenomenon with implications for biodiversity and ecosystem\n function. Understanding and predicting the pace of expansion and the\n underlying processes that control it are key challenges in the study\n and management of woody encroachment. Theory from spatial population\n biology predicts that the occurrence and speed of population\n expansion should depend sensitively on the nature of conspecific\n density dependence. If fitness is maximized at the low-density\n encroachment edge then shrub expansion should be "pulled"\n forward. However, encroaching shrubs have been shown to exhibit\n positive feedbacks, whereby shrub establishment modifies the\n environment in ways that facilitate further shrub recruitment and\n survival. In this case there may be a fitness cost to shrubs at low\n density causing expansion to be "pushed" from behind the\n leading edge. We studied the spatial dynamics of creosotebush\n (Larrea tridentata), which has a history of\n encroachment into Chihuahuan Desert grasslands over the past\n century. We used demographic data from observational censuses and\n seedling transplant experiments to test the strength and direction\n of density dependence in shrub fitness along a gradient of shrub\n density at the grass-shrub ecotone. We also used seed-drop\n experiments and wind data to construct a mechanistic seed dispersal\n kernel, then connected demography and dispersal data within a\n spatial integral projection model (SIPM) to predict the dynamics of\n shrub expansion. The SIPM predicted that, contrary to expectations\n based on potential for positive feedbacks, the shrub encroachment\n wave is "pulled" by maximum fitness at the low-density\n front. However, the predicted pace of expansion was strikingly slow\n (ca. 8 cm/yr), and this prediction was supported by independent\n re-surveys of the ecotone showing little to no change in spatial\n extent of shrub cover over 12 years. Encroachment speed was acutely\n sensitive to seedling recruitment, suggesting that this population\n may be primed for pulses of expansion under conditions that are\n favorable for recruitment. Our integration of observations,\n experiments, and modeling reveals not only that this ecotone is\n effectively stalled under current conditions, but also\n why that is so and how that may change as the\n environment changes."]} 

This project was designed to understand the demographic effects of vertically transmitted fungal endophytes (Epichloë spp.) on their grass hosts. The experiment includes seven host-symbiont taxonomic pairs: Agrostis perennans - E. amarillans, Elymus villosus - E. elymi, Elymus virginicus - E. elymi or EviTG-1, Festuca subverticillata - E. starrii, Poa alsodes - E. alsodes, Poa sylvestris - E. PsyTG-1, Schedonorus arundinaceus - E. coenophiala. Experimental plots were established at the Indiana University Lilly-Dickey Woods Research and Teaching Preserve in south-central Indiana, USA in 2007. For each species, 5-10 plots were planted with naturally symbiotic (S+) hosts, and 5-10 plots were plated with hosts that were disinfected of fungal endophytes by heat treatment (S-). Over 15 years (2007-2022) we collected demographic data on the survival, growth, reproduction, and recruitment of all plants in all plots. Beginning in 2018 we also collected data on the locations of all plants in every plot. 

https://issues.org/new-theory-increasingly-tangled-banks/ Twombly, Saran, Alan Hastings, Tom Miller, Michael Cortez, Karen Abbott, Tanjona Ramiadantsoa, Julie Blackwood, and Olivia Prosper. “New Theory for Increasingly Tangled Banks.” Issues in Science and Technology 38, no. 4 (Summer 2022): 39–44. Theory has fallen out of fashion in the sciences, in favor of data collection and number crunching. But the conceptual frameworks provided by theory are essential for addressing society’s most complex and urgent problems. 

Abstract The encroachment of woody plants into grasslands is a global phenomenon with implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function. Understanding and predicting the pace of expansion and the underlying processes that control it are key challenges in the study and management of woody encroachment. Theory from spatial population biology predicts that the occurrence and speed of expansion should depend sensitively on the nature of conspecific density dependence. If fitness is maximized at the low‐density encroachment edge, then shrub expansion should be “pulled” forward. However, encroaching shrubs have been shown to exhibit positive feedbacks, whereby shrub establishment modifies the environment in ways that facilitate further shrub recruitment and survival. In this case there may be a fitness cost to shrubs at low density causing expansion to be “pushed” from behind the leading edge. We studied the spatial dynamics of creosotebush (Larrea tridentata), which has a history of encroachment into Chihuahuan Desert grasslands over the past century. We used demographic data from observational censuses and seedling transplant experiments to test the strength and direction of density dependence in shrub fitness along a gradient of shrub density at the grass–shrub ecotone. We also used seed‐drop experiments and wind data to construct a mechanistic seed‐dispersal kernel, then connected demography and dispersal data within a spatial integral projection model (SIPM) to predict the dynamics of shrub expansion. Contrary to expectations based on potential for positive feedbacks, the shrub encroachment wave is “pulled” by maximum fitness at the low‐density front. However, the predicted pace of expansion was strikingly slow (ca. 8 cm/year), and this prediction was supported by independent resurveys of the ecotone showing little to no change in the spatial extent of shrub cover over 12 years. Encroachment speed was acutely sensitive to seedling recruitment, suggesting that this population may be primed for pulses of expansion under conditions that are favorable for recruitment. Our integration of observations, experiments, and modeling reveals not only that this ecotone is effectively stalled under current conditions but also why that is so and how that may change as the environment changes.