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Abstract. Predictions of future sea-level change and ice-sheet stability rely on accurate reconstructions of sea levels for past warm intervals, such as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma). The magnitude of MPWP glacial cycles and the relative contribution of meltwater sources remain uncertain. We explore this issue by modeling processes of glacial isostatic adjustment for a wide range of possible MPWP ice-sheet melt zones, including North America, Greenland, Eurasia, and West Antarctica, as well as the Wilkes Basin, the Aurora Basin, and the embayment of Prydz Bay in East Antarctica. As a case study, we use a series of ice histories together with a suite of viscoelastic Earth models to predict global changes in sea level from the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 glacial to the MIS KM3 interglacial. At the Whanganui Basin (New Zealand), a location with stratigraphic constraints on Pliocene glacial–interglacial sea-level amplitude, the calculated local-sea-level (LSL) rise is on average ∼ 15 % lower than the associated change in the global mean sea level (GMSL) in the ice-sheet scenarios explored here. In contrast, the calculated LSL rise over the deglaciation from MIS M2 to MIS KM3 at Enewetak Atoll is systematically larger than the GMSL change by 10 %. While no single LSL observation (field site) can provide a unique constraint on the sources of ice melt observed during this period, combinations of observations have the potential to yield a stronger constraint on GMSL change and to narrow the list of possible sources. 

Understanding sea level during the peak of the Last Interglacial (125,000 yrs ago) is important for assessing future ice-sheet dynamics in response to climate change. The coasts and continental shelves of northeastern Australia (Queensland) preserve an extensive Last Interglacial record in the facies of coastal strandplains onland and fossil reefs offshore. However, there is a discrepancy, amounting to tens of meters, in the elevation of sea-level indicators between offshore and onshore sites. Here, we assess the influence of geophysical processes that may have changed the elevation of these sea-level indicators. We modeled sea-level change due to dynamic topography, glacial isostatic adjustment, and isostatic adjustment due to coral reef loading. We find that these processes caused relative sea-level changes on the order of, respectively, 10 m, 5 m, and 0.3 m. Of these geophysical processes, the dynamic topography predictions most closely match the tilting observed between onshore and offshore sea-level markers. 

Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) simulations using earth models that vary viscoelastic structure with depth alone cannot simultaneously fit geographic trends in the elevation of marine isotope stage (MIS) 5a relative sea level (RSL) indicators across continental North America and the Caribbean and yield conflicting estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL). We present simulations with a GIA model that incorporates three-dimensional (3-D) variation in North American viscoelastic earth structure constructed by combining high-resolution seismic tomographic imaging with a new method for mapping this imaging into lateral variations in lithospheric thickness and mantle viscosity. We pair this earth model with a global ice history based on updated constraints on ice volume and geometry. The GIA prediction provides the first simultaneous reconciliation of MIS 5a North American and Caribbean RSL highstands and strengthens arguments that MIS 5a peak GMSL reached values close to that of the Last Interglacial. This result highlights the necessity of incorporating realistic 3-D earth structure into GIA predictions with continent-scale RSL data sets. 

It is generally agreed that the Last Interglacial (LIG; ∼130 – 115 ka) was a time when global average temperatures and global mean sea level were higher than they are today. However, the exact timing, magnitude, and spatial pattern of ice melt is much debated. One difficulty in extracting past global mean sea level from local observations is that their elevations need to be corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which requires knowledge of Earth’s internal viscoelastic structure. While this structure is generally assumed to be radially symmetric, evidence from seismology, geodynamics, and mineral physics indicates that large lateral variations in viscosity exist within the mantle. In this study, we construct a new model of Earth’s internal structure by converting shear wave speed into viscosity using parameterisations from mineral physics experiments and geodynamical constraints on Earth’s thermal structure. We use this 3D Earth structure, which includes both variations in lithospheric thickness and lateral variations in viscosity, to calculate the first 3D GIA prediction for LIG sea level. We find that the difference between predictions with and without lateral Earth structure can be meters to 10s of meters in the near field of former ice sheets, and up to a few meters in their far field. We demonstrate how forebulge dynamics and continental levering are affected by laterally varying Earth structure, with a particular focus on those sites with prominent LIG sea level records. Results from four 3D GIA calculations show that accounting for lateral structure can act to increase local sea level by up to ∼1.5 m at the Seychelles and minimally decrease it in Western Australia. We acknowledge that this result is only based on a few simulations, but if robust, this shift brings estimates of global mean sea level from these two sites into closer agreement with each other. We further demonstrate that simulations with a suitable radial viscosity profile can be used to locally approximate the 3D GIA result, but that these radial profiles cannot be found by simply averaging viscosity below the sea level indicator site. 

Modern global sea-level rise is anomalous relative to any natural variability over the past 4000 years. 

Geodetic, seismic, and geological evidence indicates that West Antarctica is underlain by low-viscosity shallow mantle. Thus, as marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated during past interglacials, or will retreat in the future, exposed bedrock will rebound rapidly and flux meltwater out into the open ocean. Previous studies have suggested that this contribution to global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is small and occurs slowly. We challenge this notion using sea level predictions that incorporate both the outflux mechanism and complex three-dimensional viscoelastic mantle structure. In the case of the last interglacial, where the GMSL contribution from WAIS collapse is often cited as ~3 to 4 meters, the outflux mechanism contributes ~1 meter of additional GMSL change within ~1 thousand years of the collapse. Using a projection of future WAIS collapse, we also demonstrate that the outflux can substantially amplify GMSL rise estimates over the next century.