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Creators/Authors contains: "Monacci, Natalie M"

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  1. Abstract. As elsewhere in the global ocean, the Gulf of Alaska is experiencing the rapid onset of ocean acidification (OA) driven by oceanic absorption of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In support of OA research and monitoring, we present here a data product of marine inorganic carbon chemistry parameters measured from seawater samples taken during biannual cruises between 2008 and 2017 in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Samples were collected each May and September over the 10 year period using a conductivity, temperature, depth (CTD) profiler coupled with a Niskin bottle rosette at stations including a long-term hydrographic survey transect known as the Gulf of Alaska (GAK) Line. This dataset includes discrete seawater measurements such as dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity, which allows the calculation of other marine carbon parameters, including carbonate mineral saturation states, carbon dioxide (CO2), and pH. Cumulative daily Bakun upwelling indices illustrate the pattern of downwelling in the northern Gulf of Alaska, with a period of relaxation spanning between the May and September cruises. The observed time and space variability impart challenges for disentangling the OA signal despite this dataset spanning a decade. However, this data product greatly enhances our understanding of seasonal and interannual variability in the marine inorganic carbon system parameters. The product can also aid in the ground truthing of biogeochemical models, refining estimates of sea–air CO2 exchange, and determining appropriate CO2 parameter ranges for experiments targeting potentially vulnerable species. Data are available at https://doi.org/10.25921/x9sg-9b08 (Monacci et al., 2023). 
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  2. Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024). 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 14, 2026
  3. Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carboncycle, support the development of climate policies, and project futureclimate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change(ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measureddirectly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annualchanges in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimatedwith global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-baseddata products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated withdynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, withfossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission(including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1(40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9  ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with aBIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low orsinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest anincrease in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %)globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, morethan 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the meanand trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistentlyestimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadalvariability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multipleapproaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in theestimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between thedifferent methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northernextratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on thestrength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented inthis work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b). 
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  4. This dataset consists of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 2022 (SOCATv2022) data product files. The ocean absorbs one quarter of the global CO2 emissions from human activity. The community-led Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (www.socat.info) is key for the quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and its variation, now and in the future. SOCAT version 2022 has quality-controlled in situ surface ocean fCO2 (fugacity of CO2) measurements on ships, moorings, autonomous and drifting surface platforms for the global oceans and coastal seas from 1957 to 2021. The main synthesis and gridded products contain 33.7 million fCO2 values with an estimated accuracy of better than 5 μatm. A further 6.4 million fCO2 sensor data with an estimated accuracy of 5 to 10 μatm are separately available. During quality control, marine scientists assign a flag to each data set, as well as WOCE flags of 2 (good), 3 (questionable) or 4 (bad) to individual fCO2 values. Data sets are assigned flags of A and B for an estimated accuracy of better than 2 μatm, flags of C and D for an accuracy of better than 5 μatm and a flag of E for an accuracy of better than 10 μatm. Bakker et al. (2016) describe the quality control criteria used in SOCAT versions 3 to 2022. Quality control comments for individual data sets can be accessed via the SOCAT Data Set Viewer (www.socat.info). All data sets, where data quality has been deemed acceptable, have been made public. The main SOCAT synthesis files and the gridded products contain all data sets with an estimated accuracy of better than 5 µatm (data set flags of A to D) and fCO2 values with a WOCE flag of 2. Access to data sets with an estimated accuracy of 5 to 10 (flag of E) and fCO2 values with flags of 3 and 4 is via additional data products and the Data Set Viewer (Table 8 in Bakker et al., 2016). SOCAT publishes a global gridded product with a 1° longitude by 1° latitude resolution. A second product with a higher resolution of 0.25° longitude by 0.25° latitude is available for the coastal seas. The gridded products contain all data sets with an estimated accuracy of better than 5 µatm (data set flags of A to D) and fCO2 values with a WOCE flag of 2. Gridded products are available monthly, per year and per decade. Two powerful, interactive, online viewers, the Data Set Viewer and the Gridded Data Viewer (www.socat.info), enable investigation of the SOCAT synthesis and gridded data products. SOCAT data products can be downloaded. Matlab code is available for reading these files. Ocean Data View also provides access to the SOCAT data products (www.socat.info). SOCAT data products are discoverable, accessible and citable. The SOCAT Data Use Statement (www.socat.info) asks users to generously acknowledge the contribution of SOCAT scientists by invitation to co-authorship, especially for data providers in regional studies, and/or reference to relevant scientific articles. The SOCAT website (www.socat.info) provides a single access point for online viewers, downloadable data sets, the Data Use Statement, a list of contributors and an overview of scientific publications on and using SOCAT. Automation of data upload and initial data checks allows annual releases of SOCAT from version 4 onwards. SOCAT is used for quantification of ocean CO2 uptake and ocean acidification and for evaluation of climate models and sensor data. SOCAT products inform the annual Global Carbon Budget since 2013. The annual SOCAT releases by the SOCAT scientific community are a Voluntary Commitment for United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 14.3 (Reduce Ocean Acidification) (#OceanAction20464). More broadly the SOCAT releases contribute to UN SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water), and to the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. Hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific publications and high-impact reports cite SOCAT. The SOCAT community-led synthesis product is a key step in the value chain based on in situ inorganic carbon measurements of the oceans, which provides policy makers with critical information on ocean CO2 uptake in climate negotiations. The need for accurate knowledge of global ocean CO2 uptake and its (future) variation makes sustained funding of in situ surface ocean CO2 observations imperative. 
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