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Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops. # Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N~2~O) fluxes from US croplands Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.pvmcvdnzx](10.5061/dryad.pvmcvdnzx) ## Description of the data and file structure We present here the data that were used for the analysis presented in: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N~2~O) fluxes from US croplands. ### Files and variables Files: Dataset_S1.xlsx, Dataset_S2.csv, Dataset_S3.csv, #### **Description:**  **Description of data sheets** **Dataset S1A columns** * **Site_ID:** Numeric identifier for the experimental site. * **Treatment_ID:** Numeric code for the management treatment applied at that site * **DataUse:** To assign data to be used for model training (development) and testing (held-out evaluation) * **State/Province:** State acronym * **Latitude decimal deg:** Site location latitude * **Longitude decimal deg:** Site location longitude * **Start Data Year:** Starting year of data used * **End Data Year:** Ending year of data used * **Cover crop:** Type of cover crop used within the treatment * **Rotation Descriptor:** Describe the rotation of crops within the treatment * **Tillage Descriptor:** Describe tillage type within the treatment * **Residual Removal:** Describe residual management within the treatment * **Irrigation:** Describe if irrigation was applied or not within the treatment * **N Treatment Descriptor:** Describe nitrogen amendments within the treatment * **Reference:** Reference for the data **Dataset S1B**: This sheet contains the reference list for the data used **Dataset S2 columns** * **Date:** Gas sampling days * **Site_ID:** Numeric identifier for the experimental site. * **Treatment_ID:** Numeric code for the management treatment applied at that site * **DataUse:** To assign data to be used for model training (development) and testing (held-out evaluation) * **Observed N2O:** Daily average N2O flux measured (g N2O-N ha-1d-1) * **Predicted N2O:** Daily average N2O flux predicted by multimodel hybrid framework (g N2O-N ha-1d-1) * **NH4:** Process-based models simulated daily NH4-N content in the top 30-cm soil layer (kg ha-1) * **SOC:** Process-based models simulated daily soil organic carbon in the top 30-cm soil layer (kg ha-1) * **NO3:** Process-based models simulated daily NO3-N content in the top 30-cm soil layer (kg ha-1) * **ST:** Process-based models simulated daily average soil temperature in the top 30-cm soil layer (°C) * **WFPS:** Process-based models simulated daily water-filled pore space in the top 30-cm soil layer (fraction) * **ABG:** Process-based models simulated daily above-ground biomass (kg ha-1) * **BG:** Process-based models simulated daily below-ground biomass (kg ha-1) * **SRAD:** Average solar radiation for the last five days before gas sampling (Watt m-2) * **Tmax:** Average maximum air temperature for the last three days before gas sampling  (°C) * **APrecip:** Average precipitation in the last fifteen days before gas sampling (mm) * **Wspd:** Average wind in the last fifteen days before gas sampling (m s-1) * **LAI:** Process-based models simulated daily leaf area index (m2 m2) * **Nstress:** Process-based models simulated the daily nitrogen stress factor (fraction) * **Wstress:** Process-based models simulated the daily water stress factor (fraction) * **PET:** Process-based models simulated daily potential evapotranspiration (mm) * **SE:** Process-based models simulated daily soil evaporation (mm) * **SPrecip:** Cumulative precipitation in the last two days before gas sampling (mm) * **SH:** Average specific humidity in the last three days before gas sampling (g kg-1) * **RH:** Average relative humidity in the last fifteen days before gas sampling (%) **Dataset S3 columns** * **Date:** Gas sampling days * **Site_ID:** Numeric identifier for the experimental site. * **Treatment_ID:** Numeric code for the management treatment applied at that site * **DataUse:** To assign data to be used for model training (development) and testing (held-out evaluation) * **SD:** Monte Carlo standard deviation of the simulated daily N₂O flux distribution (g N2O-N ha-1d-1) * **CV**: Monte Carlo coefficient of variation of the simulated daily N₂O flux distribution (%) * **CI05:** 5th percentile (lower 90 % confidence bound) of the Monte Carlo flux distribution(g N2O-N ha-1d-1) * **CI95:** 95th percentile (upper 90 % confidence bound) of the Monte Carlo flux distribution(g N2O-N ha-1d-1) 

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N₂O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N₂O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N₂O at both training (R²= 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R²= 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃^-, water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops. 

Understanding how plasmas thermalize when density gradients are steep remains a fundamental challenge in plasma physics, with direct implications for fusion experiments and astrophysical phenomena. Standard hydrodynamic models break down in these regimes, and kinetic theories make predictions that have never been directly tested. Here, we present the first detailed phase-space measurements of a strongly coupled plasma as it evolves from sharp density gradients to thermal equilibrium. Using laser-induced fluorescence imaging of an ultracold calcium plasma, we track the complete ion distribution function f(x,v,t). We discover that commonly used kinetic models (Bhatnagar–Gross–Krook and Lenard–Bernstein) overpredict thermalization rates, even while correctly capturing the initial counterstreaming plasma formation. Our measurements reveal that the initial ion acceleration response scales linearly with electron temperature, and that the simulations underpredict the initial ion response. In our geometry we demonstrate the formation of well-controlled counterpropagating plasma beams. This experimental platform enables precision tests of kinetic theories and opens new possibilities for studying plasma stopping power and flow-induced instabilities in strongly coupled systems. 

We compare a variety of models used for the calculation of transport coefficients in dense plasmas, including average-atom models, models based on kinetic theory, structure matching effective potentials, and pair-potential molecular dynamics. In particular, we focus on the parameter space investigated in the second charged-particle transport coefficient code comparison workshop [Stanek et al., Phys. Plasmas 31, 052104 (2024)]. Each model is based on the self-consistent output of our average-atom calculations. Ionic transport properties are generated from implicit electron pair matched molecular dynamics simulations, bypassing the need for either dynamical electron simulations or on-the-fly electronic structure calculations. These matched pair potentials are generated in a nonlinear way using a classical mapping procedure, further avoiding an expensive force-matching procedure. We compare these results with the density functional theory data presented at the workshop, as well as a set of widely used parametric models, which we have modified to enhance accuracy, especially at the low- and high-temperature extremes of the parameter space. We also detail the non-trivial statistical aspect of converging ionic transport coefficients. 

Magnetic fields influence ion transport in plasmas. Straightforward comparisons of experimental measurements with plasma theories are complicated when the plasma is inhomogeneous, far from equilibrium, or characterized by strong gradients. To better understand ion transport in a partially magnetized system, we study the hydrodynamic velocity and temperature evolution in an ultracold neutral plasma at intermediate values of the magnetic field. We observe a transverse, radial breathing mode that does not couple to the longitudinal velocity. The inhomogeneous density distribution gives rise to a shear velocity gradient that appears to be only weakly damped. This mode is excited by ion oscillations originating in the wings of the distribution where the plasma becomes non-neutral. The ion temperature shows evidence of an enhanced electron-ion collision rate in the presence of the magnetic field. Ultracold neutral plasmas provide a rich system for studying mode excitation and decay. 

This roadmap presents the state-of-the-art, current challenges and near future developments anticipated in the thriving field of warm dense matter (WDM) physics. Originating from strongly coupled plasma physics, high pressure physics and high energy density science, the WDM physics community has recently taken a giant leap forward. This is due to spectacular developments in laser technology, diagnostic capabilities, and computer simulation techniques. Only in the last decade has it become possible to perform accurate enough simulations & experiments to truly verify theoretical results as well as to reliably design experiments based on predictions. Consequently, this roadmap discusses recent developments of and contemporary challenges for theoretical methods and experimental techniques needed to describe, create and diagnose WDM. A large part of this roadmap is dedicated to specific WDM systems and applications in astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion and novel material synthesis. 

We report the results of the second charged-particle transport coefficient code comparison workshop, which was held in Livermore, California on 24–27 July 2023. This workshop gathered theoretical, computational, and experimental scientists to assess the state of computational and experimental techniques for understanding charged-particle transport coefficients relevant to high-energy-density plasma science. Data for electronic and ionic transport coefficients, namely, the direct current electrical conductivity, electron thermal conductivity, ion shear viscosity, and ion thermal conductivity were computed and compared for multiple plasma conditions. Additional comparisons were carried out for electron–ion properties such as the electron–ion equilibration time and alpha particle stopping power. Overall, 39 participants submitted calculated results from 18 independent approaches, spanning methods from parameterized semi-empirical models to time-dependent density functional theory. In the cases studied here, we find significant differences—several orders of magnitude—between approaches, particularly at lower temperatures, and smaller differences—roughly a factor of five—among first-principles models. We investigate the origins of these differences through comparisons of underlying predictions of ionic and electronic structure. The results of this workshop help to identify plasma conditions where computationally inexpensive approaches are accurate, where computationally expensive models are required, and where experimental measurements will have high impact.