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Abstract Ecosystems at high latitudes are changing rapidly in response to climate change. To understand changes in carbon fluxes across seasonal to multi‐decadal timescales, long‐term in situ measurements from eddy covariance networks are needed. However, there are large spatiotemporal gaps in the high‐latitude eddy covariance network. Here we used the relative extrapolation error index in machine learning‐based upscaled gross primary production as a measure of network representativeness and as the basis for a network optimization. We show that the relative extrapolation error index has steadily decreased from 2001 to 2020, suggesting diminishing upscaling errors. In experiments where we limit site activity by either setting a maximum duration or by ending measurements at a fixed time those errors increase significantly, in some cases setting the network status back more than a decade. Our experiments also show that with equal site activity across different theoretical network setups, a more spread out design with shorter‐term measurements functions better in terms of larger‐scale representativeness than a network with fewer long‐term towers. We developed a method to select optimized site additions for a network extension, which blends an objective modeling approach with expert knowledge. This method greatly outperforms an unguided network extension and can compensate for suboptimal human choices. For the Canadian Arctic we show several optimization scenarios and find that especially the Canadian high Arctic and north east tundra benefit greatly from addition sites. Overall, it is important to keep sites active and where possible make the extra investment to survey new strategic locations. 

Boreal and Arctic regions have warmed up to four times quicker than the rest of the planet since the 1970s. As a result, boreal and tundra ecosystems are experiencing more frequent and higher intensity extreme weather events and disturbances, such as wildfires. Yet limitations in ground and satellite data across the Arctic and boreal regions have challenged efforts to track these disturbances at regional scales. In order to effectively monitor the progression and extent of wildfires in the Arctic-boreal zone, it is essential to determine whether burned area (BA) products are accurate representations of BA. Here, we use 12 different datasets together with MODIS active fire data to determine the total yearly BA and seasonal patterns of fires in Arctic-boreal North America and Russia for the years 2001–2020. We found relatively little variability between the datasets in North America, both in terms of total BA and seasonality, with an average BA of 2.55 ± 1.24 (standard deviation) Mha/year for our analysis period, the majority (ca. 41%) of which occurs in July. In contrast, in Russia, there are large disparities between the products—GFED5 produces over four times more BA than GFED4s in southern Siberia. These disparities occur due to the different methodologies used; dNBR (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio) of short-term composites from Landsat images used alongside hotspot data was the most consistently successful in representing BA. We stress caution using GABAM in these regions, especially for the years 2001–2013, as Landsat-7 ETM+ scan lines are mistaken as burnt patches, increasing errors of commission. On the other hand, we highlight using regional products where possible, such as ABoVE-FED or ABBA in North America, and the Talucci et al. fire perimeter product in Russia, due to their detection of smaller fires which are often missed by global products. 

Abstract. Landscapes are often assumed to be homogeneous when interpreting eddy covariance fluxes, which can lead to biases when gap-filling and scaling up observations to determine regional carbon budgets. Tundra ecosystems are heterogeneous at multiple scales. Plant functional types, soil moisture, thaw depth, and microtopography, for example, vary across the landscape and influence net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes. With warming temperatures, Arctic ecosystems are changing from a net sink to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere in some locations, but the Arctic's carbon balance remains highly uncertain. In this study we report results from growing season NEE and CH4 fluxes from an eddy covariance tower in the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska. We used footprint models and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to unmix eddy covariance observations into constituent land-cover fluxes based on high-resolution land-cover maps of the region. We compared three types of footprint models and used two land-cover maps with varying complexity to determine the effects of these choices on derived ecosystem fluxes. We used artificially created gaps of withheld observations to compare gap-filling performance using our derived land-cover-specific fluxes and traditional gap-filling methods that assume homogeneous landscapes. We also compared resulting regional carbon budgets when scaling up observations using heterogeneous and homogeneous approaches. Traditional gap-filling methods performed worse at predicting artificially withheld gaps in NEE than those that accounted for heterogeneous landscapes, while there were only slight differences between footprint models and land-cover maps. We identified and quantified hot spots of carbon fluxes in the landscape (e.g., late growing season emissions from wetlands and small ponds). We resolved distinct seasonality in tundra growing season NEE fluxes. Scaling while assuming a homogeneous landscape overestimated the growing season CO2 sink by a factor of 2 and underestimated CH4 emissions by a factor of 2 when compared to scaling with any method that accounts for landscape heterogeneity. We show how Bayesian MCMC, analytical footprint models, and high-resolution land-cover maps can be leveraged to derive detailed land-cover carbon fluxes from eddy covariance time series. These results demonstrate the importance of landscape heterogeneity when scaling carbon emissions across the Arctic. 

Abstract Accelerated warming of the Arctic can affect the global climate system by thawing permafrost and exposing organic carbon in soils to decompose and release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We used a process-based biosphere model (DVM-DOS-TEM) designed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical interactions between the soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. We varied soil and environmental parameters to assess the impact on cryohydrological and biogeochemical outputs in the model. We analyzed the responses of ecosystem carbon balances to permafrost thaw by running site-level simulations at two long-term tundra ecological monitoring sites in Alaska: Eight Mile Lake (EML) and Imnavait Creek Watershed (IMN), which are characterized by similar tussock tundra vegetation but differing soil drainage conditions and climate. Model outputs showed agreement with field observations at both sites for soil physical properties and ecosystem CO₂fluxes. Model simulations of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) showed an overestimation during the frozen season (higher CO₂emissions) at EML with a mean NEE of 26.98 ± 4.83 gC/m²/month compared to observational mean of 22.01 ± 5.67 gC/m²/month, and during the fall months at IMN, with a modeled mean of 19.21 ± 7.49 gC/m²/month compared to observation mean of 11.9 ± 4.45 gC/m²/month. Our results underscore the importance of representing the impact of soil drainage conditions on the thawing of permafrost soils, particularly poorly drained soils, which will drive the magnitude of carbon released at sites across the high-latitude tundra. These findings can help improve predictions of net carbon releases from thawing permafrost, ultimately contributing to a better understanding of the impact of Arctic warming on the global climate system. 

Abstract Purpose of ReviewWhile previously thought to be negligible, carbon emissions during the non-growing season (NGS) can be a substantial part of the annual carbon budget in the Arctic boreal zone (ABZ), which can shift the carbon balance of these ecosystems from a long-held annual carbon sink towards a net annual carbon source. The purpose of this review is to summarize NGS carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux research in the ABZ that has been published within the past 5 years. Recent FindingsWe explore the processes and magnitudes of CO₂fluxes, and the status of modeling efforts, and evaluate future directions. With technological advances, direct measurements of NGS fluxes are increasing at sites across the ABZ over the past decade, showing ecosystems in the ABZ are a large source of CO₂in the shoulder seasons, with low, consistent, winter emissions. SummaryEcosystem carbon cycling models are being improved with some challenges, such as modeling below ground and snow processes, which are critical to understanding NGS CO₂fluxes. A lack of representative in situ carbon flux data and gridded environmental data are leading limiting factors preventing more accurate predictions of NGS carbon fluxes. 

Summary Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long‐term warming.Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases – leaf‐out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring.We showed that warming advanced leaf‐out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf‐out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended.Together, these results suggest that the real‐world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase. 

Abstract In the Arctic, winter soil temperatures exert strong control over mean annual soil temperature and winter CO₂emissions. In tundra ecosystems there is evidence that plant canopy influences on snow accumulation alter winter soil temperatures. By comparison, there has been relatively little research examining the impacts of heterogeneity in boreal forest cover on soil temperatures. Using seven years of data from six sites in northeastern Siberia that vary in stem density we show that snow-depth and forest canopy cover exert equally strong control on cumulative soil freezing degrees days (FDD_soil). Together snow depth and canopy cover explain approximately 75% of the variance in linear models of FDD_soiland freezingn-factors (n_f; calculated as the quotient of FDD_soiland FDD_air), across sites and years. Including variables related to air temperature, or antecedent soil temperatures does not substantially improve models. The observed increase in FDD_soilwith canopy cover suggests that canopy interception of snow or thermal conduction through trees may be important for winter soil temperature dynamics in forested ecosystems underlain by continuous permafrost. Our results imply that changes in Siberian larch forest cover that arise from climate warming or fire regime changes may have important impacts on winter soil temperature dynamics. 

Accurate representation of permafrost carbon emissions is crucial for climate projections, yet current Earth system models inadequately represent permafrost carbon. Sustained funding opportunities are needed from government and private sectors for prioritized model development. 

Abstract The changing thermal state of permafrost is an important indicator of climate change in northern high latitude ecosystems. The seasonally thawed soil active layer thickness (ALT) overlying permafrost may be deepening as a consequence of enhanced polar warming and widespread permafrost thaw in northern permafrost regions (NPRs). The associated increase in ALT may have cascading effects on ecological and hydrological processes that impact climate feedback. However, past NPR studies have only provided a limited understanding of the spatially continuous patterns and trends of ALT due to a lack of long-term high spatial resolution ALT data across the NPR. Using a suite of observational biophysical variables and machine learning (ML) techniques trained with availablein situALT network measurements (n= 2966 site-years), we produced annual estimates of ALT at 1 km resolution over the NPR from 2003 to 2020. Our ML-derived ALT dataset showed high accuracy (R²= 0.97) and low bias when compared within situALT observations. We found the ALT distribution to be most strongly affected by local soil properties, followed by topographic elevation and land surface temperatures. Pair-wise site-level evaluation between our data-driven ALT with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring data indicated that about 80% of sites had a deepening ALT trend from 2003 to 2020. Based on our long-term gridded ALT data, about 65% of the NPR showed a deepening ALT trend, while the entire NPR showed a mean deepening trend of 0.11 ± 0.35 cm yr⁻¹[25%–75% quantile: (−0.035, 0.204) cm yr⁻¹]. The estimated ALT trends were also sensitive to fire disturbance. Our new gridded ALT product provides an observationally constrained, updated understanding of the progression of thawing and the thermal state of permafrost in the NPR, as well as the underlying environmental drivers of these trends.