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Creators/Authors contains: "Nesbitt, Stephen W."

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  1. Abstract Cold pools play a range of important roles in quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs), including maintenance via the development of new convective cells as well as baroclinic generation of horizontal vorticity. Although a number of QLCS cold pools have been characterized in the literature using one or a few sensors, their variability (both internally and across a range of environments) has still not been widely studied. This gap in knowledge extends particularly to high-shear low-CAPE (HSLC) convective environments common to the cool season in the southeastern United States, where the Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms (PERiLS) field campaign was focused. PERiLS specifically targeted environmental and storm-scale processes in QLCSs, including their cold pools. Our analysis focuses on the heterogeneity and temporal variability of cold pools across short time and spatial scales using numerous surface and sounding observations across five PERiLS QLCSs. The PERiLS cold pools are generally weaker than those previously studied in warm-season, midlatitude QLCSs, likely due to the lower CAPE and higher relative humidity values common to HSLC environments during PERiLS. Nevertheless, the distributions of most PERiLS cold pool variables at least partially overlap with those of previously studied QLCSs. The median PERiLS measurement reveals a cold pool that is ≈2.5 km deep, having a surface temperature decrease of ≈−6°C, and a peak outflow wind gust of ≈13 m s−1. In the spirit of a “cold pool audit,” we present the internal and case-to-case variability of these particularly well-observed QLCSs. Significance StatementEvaporatively cooled air masses (“cold pools”) are created by quasi-linear convective systems (“QLCSs,” also called “squall lines”), and they in turn play important roles in the maintenance and structures of QLCSs. There have been relatively few direct measurements of cold pool variability, especially for the frequently severe QLCSs occurring during the cool season in the southeastern United States. Numerous surface and upper-air measurements from the recent Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear Storms (“PERiLS”) field experiment are used to document Southeastern QLCS cold pools. The PERiLS cold pools were surprisingly similar to, albeit somewhat weaker than, those found in prior studies of warm-season QLCSs in other regions. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available October 1, 2026
  2. Free, publicly-accessible full text available September 18, 2026
  3. Abstract The Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) range in Argentina is a hotspot of deep moist convection initiation (CI). Radar climatology indicates that 44% of daytime CI events that occur near the SDC in spring and summer seasons and that are not associated with the passage of a cold front or an outflow boundary involve a northerly low-level jet (LLJ), and these events tend to preferentially occur over the southeast quadrant of the main ridge of the SDC. To investigate the physical mechanisms acting to cause CI, idealized convection-permitting numerical simulations with a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km were conducted using Cloud Model 1 (CM1). The sounding used for initializing the model featured a strong northerly LLJ, with synoptic conditions resembling those in a previously postulated conceptual model of CI over the region, making it a canonical case study. Differential heating of the mountain caused by solar insolation in conjunction with the low-level northerly flow sets up a convergence line on the eastern slopes of the SDC. The southern portion of this line experiences significant reduction in convective inhibition, and CI occurs over the SDC southeast quadrant. The simulated storm soon acquires supercellular characteristics, as observed. Additional simulations with varying LLJ strength also show CI over the southeast quadrant. A simulation without background flow generated convergence over the ridgeline, with widespread CI across the entire ridgeline. A simulation with mid- and upper-tropospheric westerlies removed indicates that CI is minimally influenced by gravity waves. We conclude that the low-level jet is sufficient to focus convection initiation over the southeast quadrant of the ridge. 
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  4. Abstract Quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) are responsible for approximately a quarter of all tornado events in the U.S., but no field campaigns have focused specifically on collecting data to understand QLCS tornadogenesis. The Propagation, Evolution, and Rotation in Linear System (PERiLS) project was the first observational study of tornadoes associated with QLCSs ever undertaken. Participants were drawn from more than 10 universities, laboratories, and institutes, with over 100 students participating in field activities. The PERiLS field phases spanned two years, late winters and early springs of 2022 and 2023, to increase the probability of intercepting significant tornadic QLCS events in a range of large-scale and local environments. The field phases of PERiLS collected data in nine tornadic and nontornadic QLCSs with unprecedented detail and diversity of measurements. The design and execution of the PERiLS field phase and preliminary data and ongoing analyses are shown. 
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  5. Abstract Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This motivates the forecast performance evaluation of 24-h accumulated precipitation and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with the final aim of helping water management in the region. The NWP models evaluated include the Global Forecast System (GFS), which parameterizes convection, and convection-permitting simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configured by three institutions: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign (UIUC), Colorado State University (CSU), and National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN). These models were verified with daily accumulated precipitation data from rain gauges and soundings during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field campaign. Generally all configurations of the higher-resolution WRFs outperformed the lower-resolution GFS based on multiple metrics. Among the convection-permitting WRF Models, results varied with respect to rainfall threshold and forecast lead time, but the WRFUIUC mostly performed the best. However, elevation-dependent biases existed among the models that may impact the use of the data for different applications. There is a dry (moist) bias in lower (upper) pressure levels which is most pronounced in the GFS. For Córdoba an overestimation of the northern flow forecasted by the NWP configurations at lower levels was encountered. These results show the importance of convection-permitting forecasts in this region, which should be complementary to the coarser-resolution global model forecasts to help various users and decision-makers. 
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  6. This study compared drop size distribution (DSD) measurements on the surface, the corresponding properties, and the precipitation modes among three deep convective regions within the Americas. The measurement compilation corresponded to two sites in the midlatitudes: the U.S. Southern Great Plains and Córdoba Province in subtropical South America, as well as to one site in the tropics: Manacapuru in central Amazonia; these are all areas where intense rain-producing systems contribute to the majority of rainfall in the Americas’ largest river basins. This compilation included two types of disdrometers (Parsivel and 2D-Video Disdrometer) that were used at the midlatitude sites and one type of disdrometer (Parsivel) that was deployed at the tropical site. The distributions of physical parameters (such as rain rate R, mass-weighted mean diameter Dm, and normalized droplet concentration Nw) for the raindrop spectra without rainfall mode classification seemed similar, except for the much broader Nw distributions in Córdoba. The raindrop spectra were then classified into a light precipitation mode and a precipitation mode by using a cutoff at 0.5 mm h−1 based on previous studies that characterized the full drop size spectra. These segregated rain modes are potentially unique relative to previously studied terrain-influenced sites. In the light precipitation and precipitation modes, the dominant higher frequency observed in a broad distribution of Nw in both types of disdrometers and the identification of shallow light precipitation in vertically pointing cloud radar data represent unique characteristics of the Córdoba site relative to the others. As a result, the co-variability between the physical parameters of the DSD indicates that the precipitation observed in Córdoba may confound existing methods of determining the rain type by using the drop size distribution. 
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  7. null (Ed.)
    The Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Meso-scale/micro-scale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions Experiment Proposal (CACTI) field campaigns provided an unprecedented thirteen-disdrometer dataset in Central Argentina during the Intensive (IOP, 15 November to 15 December 2018) and Extended (EOP, 15 October 2018 to 30 April 2019) Observational Periods. The drop size distribution (DSD) parameters and their variability were analyzed across the region of interest, which was divided into three subregions characterized by the differing proximity to the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), in order to assess the impact of complex terrain on the DSD parameters. A rigorous quality control of the data was first performed. The frequency distributions of DSD-derived parameters were analyzed, including the normalized intercept parameter (logNw), the mean volume diameter (D0), the mean mass diameter (Dm), the shape parameter (μ), the liquid water content (LWC), and the rain rate (R). The region closest to the SDC presented higher values of logNw, lower D0, and higher μ, while the opposite occurred in the farthest region, i.e., the concentration of small drops decreased while the concentration of bigger drops increased with the distance to the east of the SDC. Furthermore, the region closest to the SDC showed a bimodal distribution of D0: the lower values of D0 were associated with higher values of logNw and were found more frequently during the afternoon, while the higher D0 were associated with lower logNw and occurred more frequently during the night. The data were analyzed in comparison to the statistical analysis of Dolan et al. 2018 and sorted according to the classification proposed in the cited study. The logNw-D0 and LWC-D0 two-dimensional distributions allowed further discussion around the applicability of other mid-latitude and global precipitation classification schemes (startiform/convection) in the region of interest. Finally, three precipitation case studies were analyzed with supporting polarimetric radar data in order to relate the DSD characteristics to the precipitation type and the microphysical processes involved in each case. 
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  8. null (Ed.)
    Abstract This article provides an overview of the Advanced Study Institute: Field Studies of Convection in Argentina (ASI-FSCA) program, a 3-week dynamic and collaborative hands-on experience that allowed 16 highly motivated and diverse graduate students from the U.S. to participate in the 2018-19 Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. This program is unique as it represents the first effort to integrate an intensive Advanced Study Institute with a field campaign in atmospheric science. ASI-FSCA activities and successful program outcomes for five key elements are described: (1) Intensive field research with field campaign instrumentation platforms; (2) Recruitment of diverse graduate students who would not otherwise have opportunities to participate in intensive field research; (3) Tailored curriculum focused on scientific understanding of cloud and mesoscale processes and professional/academic development topics; (4) Outreach to local K-12 schools and the general public; and (5) Building a collaborative international research network to promote weather and climate research. These five elements served to increase motivation and improve confidence and self-efficacy of students to participate in scientific research and field work with goals of increasing retention and a sense of belonging in STEM graduate programs and advancing the careers of students from underrepresented groups as evidenced by a formal program evaluation effort. Given the success of the ASI-FSCA program, our team strongly recommends considering this model for expanding the opportunities for a broader and more diverse student community to participate in dynamic and intensive field work in atmospheric science. 
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