skip to main content


Search for: All records

Creators/Authors contains: "Nicklen, E. Fleur"

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. Abstract

    Merging robust statistical methods with complex simulation models is a frontier for improving ecological inference and forecasting. However, bringing these tools together is not always straightforward. Matching data with model output, determining starting conditions, and addressing high dimensionality are some of the complexities that arise when attempting to incorporate ecological field data with mechanistic models directly using sophisticated statistical methods. To illustrate these complexities and pragmatic paths forward, we present an analysis using tree‐ring basal area reconstructions in Denali National Park (DNPP) to constrain successional trajectories of two spruce species (Picea marianaandPicea glauca) simulated by a forest gap model, University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced—UVAFME. Through this process, we provide preliminary ecological inference about the long‐term competitive dynamics between slow‐growingP. marianaand relatively faster‐growingP. glauca. Incorporating tree‐ring data into UVAFME allowed us to estimate a bias correction for stand age with improved parameter estimates. We found that higher parameter values forP. marianaminimum growth under stress andP. glaucamaximum growth rate were key to improving simulations of coexistence, agreeing with recent research that faster‐growingP. glaucamay outcompeteP. marianaunder climate change scenarios. The implementation challenges we highlight are a crucial part of the conversation for how to bring models together with data to improve ecological inference and forecasting.

     
    more » « less