skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Search for: All records

Creators/Authors contains: "Nkonu, Ursula"

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. Accurate prediction of the transmission fitness of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants is vital for timely public health responses. In this study, we present a deep learning framework that predicts variant fitness from raw genomic sequences using a convolutional neural network (CNN) trained to regress Differential Population Growth Rate (DPGR) values. Our approach achieves high predictive accuracy R-square value of 0.92 on genomic sequences sampled from the USA and Europe. To interpret the model’s predictions, we apply SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify nucleotide-level contributions to predicted fitness. Our analysis highlights key mutations in ORF9 (nucleocapsid), ORF2 (spike), ORF5 (membrane), and ORF8 that either enhance or reduce predicted DPGR. Notably, we identify amino acid–altering mutations such as D3L, E484K, N501Y, and V97I as strong positive contributors to fitness, while synonymous or non-coding mutations had more subtle or regulatory effects. These findings validate the potential of sequence-based modeling and interpretable AI to support early detection and prioritization of high-risk variants. 
    more » « less
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 23, 2026