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The response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climate change is the largest uncertainty in projecting future sea level. The impact of three-dimensional (3D) Earth structure on the AIS and future global sea levels is assessed here by coupling a global glacial isostatic adjustment model incorporating 3D Earth structure to a dynamic ice-sheet model. We show that including 3D viscous effects produces rapid uplift in marine sectors and reduces projected ice loss for low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, lowering Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level in the coming centuries by up to ~40%. Under high-emission scenarios, ice retreat outpaces uplift, and sea-level rise is amplified by water expulsion from Antarctic marine areas. 

Abstract Seismic anisotropy provides essential information for characterizing the orientation of deformation and flow in the crust and mantle. The isotropic structure of the Antarctic crust and upper mantle has been determined by previous studies, but the azimuthal anisotropy structure has only been constrained by mantle core phase (SKS) splitting observations. This study determines the azimuthal anisotropic structure of the crust and mantle beneath the central and West Antarctica based on 8—55 s Rayleigh wave phase velocities from ambient noise cross‐correlation. An anisotropic Rayleigh wave phase velocity map was created using a ray—based tomography method. These data are inverted using a Bayesian Monte Carlo method to obtain an azimuthal anisotropy model with uncertainties. The azimuthal anisotropy structure in most of the study region can be fit by a two‐layer structure, with one layer at depths of 0–15 km in the shallow crust and the other layer in the uppermost mantle. The azimuthal anisotropic layer in the shallow crust of West Antarctica, where it coincides with strong positive radial anisotropy quantified by the previous study, shows a fast direction that is subparallel to the inferred extension direction of the West Antarctic Rift System. Fast directions of upper mantle azimuthal anisotropy generally align with teleseismic shear wave splitting fast directions, suggesting a thin lithosphere or similar lithosphere‐asthenosphere deformation. However, inconsistencies in this exist in Marie Byrd Land, indicating differing ancient deformation patterns in the shallow mantle lithosphere sampled by the surface waves and deformation in the deeper mantle and asthenosphere sampled more strongly by splitting measurements. 

Abstract Ocean swell interacting with Antarctic ice shelves produces sustained (approximately, 2×106 cycles per year) gravity-elastic perturbations with deformation amplitudes near the ice front as large as tens to hundreds of nanostrain. This process is the most energetically excited during the austral summer, when sea ice-induced swell attenuation is at a minimum. A 2014–2017 deployment of broadband seismographs on the Ross Ice shelf, which included three stations sited, approximately, 2 km from the ice front, reveals prolific swell-associated triggering of discrete near-ice-front (magnitude≲0) seismic subevents, for which we identify three generic types. During some strong swell episodes, subevent timing becomes sufficiently phase-locked with swell excitation, to create prominent harmonic features in spectra calculated across sufficiently lengthy time windows via a Dirac comb effect, for which we articulate a theoretical development for randomized interevent times. These events are observable at near-front stations, have dominant frequency content between 0.5 and 20 Hz, and, in many cases, show highly repetitive waveforms. Matched filtering detection and analysis shows that events occur at a low-background rate during all swell states, but become particularly strongly excited during large amplitude swell at rates of up to many thousands per day. The superimposed elastic energy from swell-triggered sources illuminates the shelf interior as extensional (elastic plate) Lamb waves that are observable more than 100 km from the ice edge. Seismic swarms show threshold excitation and hysteresis with respect to rising and falling swell excitation. This behavior is consistent with repeated seismogenic fracture excitation and growth within a near-ice-front damage zone, encompassing fracture features seen in satellite imagery. A much smaller population of distinctly larger near-front seismic events, previously noted to be weakly associated with extended periods of swell perturbation, likely indicate calving or other larger-scale ice failures near the shelf front. 

Abstract Observations of teleseismic earthquakes using broadband seismometers on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) must contend with environmental and structural processes that do not exist for land-sited seismometers. Important considerations are: (1) a broadband, multi-mode ambient wavefield excited by ocean gravity wave interactions with the ice shelf; (2) body wave reverberations produced by seismic impedance contrasts at the ice/water and water/seafloor interfaces and (3) decoupling of the solid Earth horizontal wavefield by the sub-shelf water column. We analyze seasonal and geographic variations in signal-to-noise ratios for teleseismic P-wave (0.5–2.0 s), S-wave (10–15 s) and surface wave (13–25 s) arrivals relative to the RIS noise field. We use ice and water layer reverberations generated by teleseismic P-waves to accurately estimate the sub-station thicknesses of these layers. We present observations consistent with the theoretically predicted transition of the water column from compressible to incompressible mechanics, relevant for vertically incident solid Earth waves with periods longer than 3 s. Finally, we observe symmetric-mode Lamb waves generated by teleseismic S-waves incident on the grounding zones. Despite their complexity, we conclude that teleseismic coda can be utilized for passive imaging of sub-shelf Earth structure, although longer deployments relative to conventional land-sited seismometers will be necessary to acquire adequate data. 

Abstract We investigate the occurrence of repeating glacial seismicity near the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream and further upstream using continuous broadband seismic data collected by Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET/A‐NET) stations from 2014 through 2019. Through manual identification and cross‐correlation analysis, 2,237 discrete icequakes (1.5  M_L  2.6) are detected in two spatial clusters, one located at the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream (2,219 event detections) and a second located further upstream proximal to a subglacial ridge (18 event detections). Seismicity is predominantly concentrated in the Schmidt Hills, located adjacent to the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream, and shows clear ocean tide modulation. Seismic events primarily occur during spring tides, and, on a shorter timescale, concurrent with the rising tide preceding daily maximum high tide. The seismicity can be attributed to stick‐slip motion and fracturing that preferentially occur during rising tides. Seismicity located further upstream in the southern portion of the Foundation Ice Stream most likely reflects basal stick‐slip processes associated with the subglacial topographic high. 

Abstract The Transantarctic Mountains (TAMs), Antarctica, exhibit anomalous uplift and volcanism and have been associated with regions of thermally perturbed upper mantle that may or may not be connected to lower mantle processes. To determine if the anomalous upper mantle beneath the TAMs connects to the lower mantle, we interrogate the mantle transition zone (MTZ) structure under the TAMs and adjacent parts of East Antarctica using 12,500+ detections of P-to-S conversions from the 410 and 660 km discontinuities. Our results show distinct zones of thinner-than-global-average MTZ (∼205–225 km, ∼10%–18% thinner) beneath the central TAMs and southern Victoria Land, revealing throughgoing convective thermal anomalies (i.e., mantle plumes) that connect prominent upper and lower mantle low-velocity regions. This suggests that the thermally perturbed upper mantle beneath the TAMs and Ross Island may have a lower mantle origin, which could influence patterns of volcanism and TAMs uplift. 

Abstract The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is host to a broadband, multimode seismic wavefield that is excited in response to atmospheric, oceanic and solid Earth source processes. A 34-station broadband seismographic network installed on the RIS from late 2014 through early 2017 produced continuous vibrational observations of Earth's largest ice shelf at both floating and grounded locations. We characterize temporal and spatial variations in broadband ambient wavefield power, with a focus on period bands associated with primary (10–20 s) and secondary (5–10 s) microseism signals, and an oceanic source process near the ice front (0.4–4.0 s). Horizontal component signals on floating stations overwhelmingly reflect oceanic excitations year-round due to near-complete isolation from solid Earth shear waves. The spectrum at all periods is shown to be strongly modulated by the concentration of sea ice near the ice shelf front. Contiguous and extensive sea ice damps ocean wave coupling sufficiently so that wintertime background levels can approach or surpass those of land-sited stations in Antarctica.