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Abstract The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long‐term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long‐term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk. 

Abstract Infectious diseases are strong drivers of wildlife population dynamics, however, empirical analyses from the early stages of pathogen emergence are rare. Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), discovered in 1996, provides the opportunity to study an epizootic from its inception. We use a pattern‐oriented diffusion simulation to model the spatial spread of DFTD across the species' range and quantify population effects by jointly modelling multiple streams of data spanning 35 years. We estimate the wild devil population peaked at 53 000 in 1996, less than half of previous estimates. DFTD spread rapidly through high‐density areas, with spread velocity slowing in areas of low host densities. By 2020, DFTD occupied >90% of the species' range, causing 82% declines in local densities and reducing the total population to 16 900. Encouragingly, our model forecasts the population decline should level‐off within the next decade, supporting conservation management focused on facilitating evolution of resistance and tolerance. 

Abstract Which processes drive the productivity benefits of biodiversity remain a critical, but unanswered question in ecology. We tested whether the soil microbiome mediates the diversity‐productivity relationships among late successional plant species. We found that productivity increased with plant richness in diverse soil communities, but not with low‐diversity mixtures of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi or in pasteurised soils. Diversity‐interaction modelling revealed that pairwise interactions among species best explained the positive diversity‐productivity relationships, and that transgressive overyielding resulting from positive complementarity was only observed with the late successional soil microbiome, which was both the most diverse and exhibited the strongest community differentiation among plant species. We found evidence that both dilution/suppression from host‐specific pathogens and microbiome‐mediated resource partitioning contributed to positive diversity‐productivity relationships and overyielding. Our results suggest that re‐establishment of a diverse, late successional soil microbiome may be critical to the restoration of the functional benefits of plant diversity following anthropogenic disturbance.