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Abstract Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space–time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics. 

Reconstructing the history of polar temperature from ice core water isotope (δ¹⁸O) calibration has remained a challenge in paleoclimate research, because of our incomplete understanding of various temperature–δ¹⁸O relationships. This paper resolves this classical problem in a new framework called the unified slope equations (USE), which illustrates the general relations among spatial and temporalδ¹⁸O–surface temperature slopes. The USE is applied to the Antarctica temperature change during the last deglaciation in model simulations and observations. It is shown that the comparable Antarctica-mean spatial slope with deglacial temporal slope inδ¹⁸O–surface temperature reconstruction is caused, accidentally, by the compensation responses between theδ¹⁸O–inversion layer temperature relation and the inversion layer temperature itself. Furthermore, in light of the USE, we propose that the present seasonal slope ofδ¹⁸O–inversion layer temperature is an optimal paleothermometer that is more accurate and robust than the spatial slope. This optimal slope suggests the possibility of reconstructing past Antarctic temperature changes using present and future instrumental observations.

This paper develops a new framework called the unified slope equations (USE) to provide, for the first time, a general relation among various spatial and temporal water isotope–temperature slopes. The application of the USE to Antarctic deglacial temperature change shows that the optimal paleothermometer is the seasonal slope of the inversion layer temperature.

 

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

 

We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO₂concentrations (4xCO2) and to 1% annually increasing CO₂concentrations (1%CO2). Different estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for CESM1 and CESM2 are presented. All estimates show that the sensitivity of CESM2 has increased by 1.5 K or more over that of CESM1. At the same time the transient climate response (TCR) of CESM1 and CESM2 derived from 1%CO2 experiments has not changed significantly—2.1 K in CESM1 and 2.0 K in CESM2. Increased initial forcing as well as stronger shortwave radiation feedbacks are responsible for the increase in ECS seen in CESM2. A decomposition of regional radiation feedbacks and their contribution to global feedbacks shows that the Southern Ocean plays a key role in the overall behavior of 4xCO2 experiments, accounting for about 50% of the total shortwave feedback in both CESM1 and CESM2. The Southern Ocean is also responsible for around half of the increase in shortwave feedback between CESM1 and CESM2, with a comparable contribution arising over tropical ocean. Experiments using a thermodynamic slab‐ocean model (SOM) yield estimates of ECS that are in remarkable agreement with those from fully coupled Earth system model (ESM) experiments for the same level of CO₂increase. Finally, we show that the similarity of TCR in CESM1 and CESM2 masks significant regional differences in warming that occur in the 1%CO2 experiments for each model.

 

Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the largest natural climate perturbations, but few observational constraints exist on either the climate responses to eruptions or the properties (size, hemispheric aerosol distribution, etc.) of the eruptions themselves. Paleoclimate records are thus important sources of information on past eruptions, often through the measurement of oxygen isotopic ratios (δ¹⁸O) in natural archives. However, since many processes affectδ¹⁸O, the dynamical interpretation of these records can be quite complex. Here we present results from new, isotope‐enabled members of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, documenting eruption‐inducedδ¹⁸O variations throughout the climate system. Eruptions create significant perturbations in theδ¹⁸O of precipitation and soil moisture in central/eastern North America, via excitation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monsoon Asia and Australia also exhibit strong precipitation and soilδ¹⁸O anomalies; in these cases,δ¹⁸O may reflect changes to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation phase following eruptions. Salinity and seawaterδ¹⁸O patterns demonstrate the importance of both local hydrologic shifts and the phasing of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation response, both along the equator and in the subtropics. In all cases, the responses are highly sensitive to eruption latitude, which points to the utility of isotopic records in constraining aerosol distribution patterns associated with past eruptions. This is most effective using precipitationδ¹⁸O; all Southern eruptions and the majority (66%) of Northern eruptions can be correctly identified. This work thus serves as a starting point for new, quantitative uses of isotopic records for understanding volcanic impacts on climate.

 

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both large‐scale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between large‐scale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smaller‐scale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotope‐enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850–2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the late‐twentieth‐century structure of δ¹⁸O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ¹⁸O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotope‐enabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

 

An overview of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) is provided, including a discussion of the challenges encountered during its development and how they were addressed. In addition, an evaluation of a pair of CESM2 long preindustrial control and historical ensemble simulations is presented. These simulations were performed using the nominal 1° horizontal resolution configuration of the coupled model with both the “low‐top” (40 km, with limited chemistry) and “high‐top” (130 km, with comprehensive chemistry) versions of the atmospheric component. CESM2 contains many substantial science and infrastructure improvements and new capabilities since its previous major release, CESM1, resulting in improved historical simulations in comparison to CESM1 and available observations. These include major reductions in low‐latitude precipitation and shortwave cloud forcing biases; better representation of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation; better El Niño‐Southern Oscillation‐related teleconnections; and a global land carbon accumulation trend that agrees well with observationally based estimates. Most tropospheric and surface features of the low‐ and high‐top simulations are very similar to each other, so these improvements are present in both configurations. CESM2 has an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.1–5.3 °C, larger than in CESM1, primarily due to a combination of relatively small changes to cloud microphysics and boundary layer parameters. In contrast, CESM2's transient climate response of 1.9–2.0 °C is comparable to that of CESM1. The model outputs from these and many other simulations are available to the research community, and they represent CESM2's contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.