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Abstract While the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) gravitational-wave (GW) detectors have detected over 300 binary black hole (BBH) mergers to date, the first confirmation of an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to such an event remains elusive. Previous works have performed searches for counterpart candidates in transient catalogs and have identified active galactic nucleus (AGN) flares coincident with GW events; existing theory predicts that such flares may arise from the interaction of the merger remnant with the embedding accretion disk environment. We apply a statistical formalism to measure the significance of coincidence for the catalog as a whole, measuring that less than 3% (90% credible interval) of LVK BBH mergers give rise to observable AGN flares. This result still allows up to ∼40% of BBH mergers to originate in AGN disks. We also examine the individual coincidences of each merger–flare pairing, determining that in all cases the flares are more likely to belong to a background population of flares not associated with GW events. Our results are consistent with theoretical predictions accounting for the observability of EM counterparts in AGN disks, as well as based on the fact that the most massive/luminous AGNs (such as those included in the search) are not expected to harbor the majority of the BBHs. We emphasize that developing both the means to distinguish BBH counterpart flares from background AGN flares and an understanding of which BBHs are most likely to produce AGN flares as counterparts is critical to optimizing the use of follow-up resources. 

Abstract With GW170817 being the only multimessenger gravitational-wave (GW) event with an associated kilonova detected so far, there exists a pressing need for realistic estimation of the GW localization uncertainties and rates, as well as optimization of available telescope time to enable the detection of new kilonovae. We simulate GW events assuming a data-driven distribution of binary parameters for the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA fourth and fifth observing runs (O4 and O5). We map the binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star–black hole (NSBH) properties to the kilonova optical light curves. We use the simulated population of kilonovae to generate follow-up observing plans, with the primary goal of optimizing detection with the Gravitational Wave Multi-Messenger Astronomy DECam Survey. We explore the dependence of kilonova detectability on the mass, distance, inclination, and spin of the binaries. Assuming that no BNS was detected during O4 until the end of 2024, we present updated GW BNS (NSBH) merger detection rates. We expect to detect BNS (NSBH) kilonovae with DECam at a per-year rate of 0–2.0 (0) in O4 and 2.0–19 (0–1.0) in O5. We expect the majority of BNS detections and also those accompanied by a detectable kilonova to produce a hypermassive NS remnant, with a significant fraction of the remaining BNSs promptly collapsing to a BH. We release GW simulations and depths required to detect kilonovae based on our predictions to support the astronomical community in their multimessenger follow-up campaigns and analyses. 

We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant (H0) from the standard dark siren method using a sample of five well- covered gravitational wave (GW) alerts reported during the first part of the fourth observing run of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), the Virgo and Kamioka Gravitational Wave Detector (KAGRA) collaborations (LVK) and with three updated standard dark sirens from third observation run in combination with the previous constraints from the first three runs. Our methodology relies on the galaxy catalogue method alone. We use a deep learning method to derive the full probability density estimation of photometric redshifts using the Legacy Survey catalogues. We add the constraints from well localized binary black hole mergers to the sample of standard dark sirens analysed in our previous work. We combine the H0 posterior for 5 new standard sirens with other 10 previous events (using the most recent available data for the five novel events and updated three previous posteriors from O3), finding H0 = 70.4+13.6 −11.7 km s−1 Mpc−1 (68 per cent confidence interval) with the catalogue method only. This result represents an improvement of∼ 23 per cent comparing the new 15 dark siren constraints with the previous 10 dark siren constraints and a reduction in uncertainty of∼ 40 per cent from the combination of 15 dark and bright sirens compared with the GW170817 bright siren alone. The combination of dark and bright siren GW170817 with recent jet constraints yields H0 of 68.0+4.4−3.8 km s−1 Mpc−1, a ∼ 6 per cent precision from standard sirens, reducing the previous constraint uncertainty by∼ 10 per cent. 

Abstract We present a new measurement of the Hubble constant,H₀, following the gravitational-wave event GW170817 and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations. A standard siren measurement with a nearby (luminosity distance ∼40 Mpc) event such as GW170817 is typically sensitive to the peculiar motion of the host galaxy owing to local dynamics. Previous measurements from this event have taken advantage of peculiar velocity measurements of nearby galaxies, including a handful of objects in the galaxy group that the host of the event, NGC 4993, has been associated with. Still, the group’s properties and NGC 4993’s membership were debated. We present DESI observations of thousands of galaxies in the vicinity of NGC 4993, resulting in 39 group galaxies and a fivefold increase in galaxies compared to previous observations, with many contributing to a peculiar velocity measurement. Examining the local dynamics, our observations support the presence of a galaxy group of which NGC 4993 is a part with a halo mass of order ∼10¹³M_⊙. Using peculiar velocity measurements from our fundamental plane galaxy observations, we find $H_0=70.9_{-8.5}^{+6.4}$ km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. In addition, using a peculiar velocity measurement for NGC 4993 from surface brightness fluctuations in Cosmicflows-4, we find $H_0=73.4_{-3.9}^{+3.3}$ km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. We study the impact of different galaxy selection criteria on the determination of the peculiar velocity and, in turn, on theH₀measurement. Our results demonstrate the value of multiplexed spectroscopic observations for probing the local environments of gravitational-wave events used in standard siren measurements. 

ABSTRACT The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant H0 via the distance–redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one possibility is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic source redshift. Here we presented H0 measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data: GW190924$$\_$$021846 and GW200202$$\_$$154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo. The combination of the H0 posterior from GW190924$$\_$$021846 and GW200202$$\_$$154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to $$H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$$. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68  per cent confidence interval (CI) by 7  per cent over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the addition of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision of cosmological measurements. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, without the inclusion of GW170817, we determine a measurement of $$H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$$. 

ABSTRACT Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an $$\sim$$0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9$$\sigma$$ to 3.3$$\sigma$$, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results. 

The importance of alternative methods for measuring the Hubble constant, such as time-delay cosmography, is highlighted by the recent Hubble tension. It is paramount to thoroughly investigate and rule out systematic biases in all measurement methods before we can accept new physics as the source of this tension. In this study, we perform a check for systematic biases in the lens modelling procedure of time-delay cosmography by comparing independent and blind time-delay predictions of the system WGD 2038−4008 from two teams using two different software programs:GLEEandLENSTRONOMY. The predicted time delays from the two teams incorporate the stellar kinematics of the deflector and the external convergence from line-of-sight structures. The un-blinded time-delay predictions from the two teams agree within 1.2σ, implying that once the time delay is measured the inferred Hubble constant will also be mutually consistent. However, there is a ∼4σdiscrepancy between the power-law model slope and external shear, which is a significant discrepancy at the level of lens models before the stellar kinematics and the external convergence are incorporated. We identify the difference in the reconstructed point spread function (PSF) to be the source of this discrepancy. When the same reconstructed PSF was used by both teams, we achieved excellent agreement, within ∼0.6σ, indicating that potential systematics stemming from source reconstruction algorithms and investigator choices are well under control. We recommend that future studies supersample the PSF as needed and marginalize over multiple algorithms or realizations for the PSF reconstruction to mitigate the systematics associated with the PSF. A future study will measure the time delays of the system WGD 2038−4008 and infer the Hubble constant based on our mass models.