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Identifying the mechanisms underlying the persistence of rare species has long been a motivating question for ecologists. Classical theory implies that community dynamics should be driven by common species, and that natural selection should not allow small populations of rare species to persist. Yet, a majority of the species found on Earth are rare. Consequently, several mechanisms have been proposed to explain their persistence, including negative density dependence, demographic compensation, vital rate buffering, asynchronous responses of subpopulations to environmental heterogeneity, and fine‐scale source‐sink dynamics. Persistence of seeds in a seed bank, which is often ignored in models of population dynamics, can also buffer small populations against collapse. We used integral projection models (IPMs) to examine the population dynamics ofOenothera coloradensis, a rare, monocarpic perennial forb, and determine whether any of five proposed demographic mechanisms for rare species persistence contribute to the long‐term viability of two populations. We also evaluate how including a discrete seed bank stage changes these population models. Including a seed bank stage in population models had a significantly increased modeledO. coloradensispopulation growth rate. Using this structured population model, we found that negative density‐dependence was the only supported mechanism for the persistence of this rare species. We propose that high micro‐site abundances within a spatially heterogeneous environment enables this species to persist, allowing it to sidestep the demographic and genetic challenges of small population size that rare species typically face. The five mechanisms of persistence explored in our study have been demonstrated as effective strategies in other species, and the fact that only one of them had strong support here supports the idea that globally rare species can employ distinct persistence strategies. This reinforces the need for customized management and conservation strategies that mirror the diversity of mechanisms that allow rare species persistence. 

In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting—but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity. 

Abstract There is an urgent need to synthesize the state of our knowledge on plant responses to climate. The availability of open-access data provide opportunities to examine quantitative generalizations regarding which biomes and species are most responsive to climate drivers. Here, we synthesize time series of structured population models from 162 populations of 62 plants, mostly herbaceous species from temperate biomes, to link plant population growth rates (λ) to precipitation and temperature drivers. We expect: (1) more pronounced demographic responses to precipitation than temperature, especially in arid biomes; and (2) a higher climate sensitivity in short-lived rather than long-lived species. We find that precipitation anomalies have a nearly three-fold larger effect onλthan temperature. Species with shorter generation time have much stronger absolute responses to climate anomalies. We conclude that key species-level traits can predict plant population responses to climate, and discuss the relevance of this generalization for conservation planning. 

Abstract Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor‐analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual‐based demography from yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive‐status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi‐extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.