Cold Jovian planets play an important role in sculpting the dynamical environment in which inner terrestrial planets form. The core accretion model predicts that giant planets cannot form around low-mass M dwarfs, although this idea has been challenged by recent planet discoveries. Here, we investigate the occurrence rate of giant planets around low-mass (0.1–0.3
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Abstract M ⊙) M dwarfs. We monitor a volume-complete, inactive sample of 200 such stars located within 15 pc, collecting four high-resolution spectra of each M dwarf over six years and performing intensive follow-up monitoring of two candidate radial velocity variables. We use TRES on the 1.5 m telescope at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory and CHIRON on the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory 1.5 m telescope for our primary campaign, and MAROON-X on Gemini-North for high-precision follow up. We place a 95% confidence upper limit of 1.5% (68% confidence limit of 0.57%) on the occurrence ofM Psini > 1M Jgiant planets out to the water snow line and provide additional constraints on the giant planet population as a function ofM Psini and period. Beyond the snow line (100 K <T eq< 150 K), we place 95% confidence upper limits of 1.5%, 1.7%, and 4.4% (68% confidence limits of 0.58%, 0.66%, and 1.7%) for 3M J<M Psini < 10M J, 0.8M J<M Psini < 3M J, and 0.3M J<M Psini < 0.8M Jgiant planets, respectively; i.e., Jupiter analogs are rare around low-mass M dwarfs. In contrast, surveys of Sun-like stars have found that their giant planets are most common at these Jupiter-like instellations.