Power system resource adequacy (RA), or its ability to continually balance energy supply and demand, underpins human and economic health. How meteorology affects RA and RA failures, particularly with increasing penetrations of renewables, is poorly understood. We characterize large-scale circulation patterns that drive RA failures in the Western U.S. at increasing wind and solar penetrations by integrating power system and synoptic meteorology methods. At up to 60% renewable penetration and across analyzed weather years, three high pressure patterns drive nearly all RA failures. The highest pressure anomaly is the dominant driver, accounting for 20-100% of risk hours and 43-100% of cumulative risk at 60% renewable penetration. The three high pressure patterns exhibit positive surface temperature anomalies, mixed surface solar radiation anomalies, and negative wind speed anomalies across our region, which collectively increase demand and decrease supply. Our characterized meteorological drivers align with meteorology during the California 2020 rolling blackouts, indicating continued vulnerability of power systems to these impactful weather patterns as renewables grow.
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Shields, Christine A ; Payne, Ashley E ; Shearer, Eric Jay ; Wehner, Michael F ; O’Brien, Travis Allen ; Rutz, Jonathan J ; Leung, L Ruby ; Ralph, F Martin ; Marquardt_Collow, Allison B ; Ullrich, Paul A ; et al ( , Geophysical Research Letters)Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.more » « less
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Skinner, Christopher B. ; Lora, Juan M. ; Payne, Ashley E. ; Poulsen, Christopher J. ( , Earth and Planetary Science Letters)
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O’Brien, Travis A. ; Payne, Ashley E. ; Shields, Christine A. ; Rutz, Jonathan ; Brands, Swen ; Castellano, Christopher ; Chen, Jiayi ; Cleveland, William ; DeFlorio, Michael J. ; Goldenson, Naomi ; et al ( , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society)