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Abstract Phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean and sub‐Arctic seas support a rich marine food web that sustains Indigenous communities as well as some of the world's largest fisheries. As sea ice retreat leads to further expansion of these fisheries, there is growing need for predictions of phytoplankton net primary production (NPP), which will likely allow better management of food resources in the region. Here, we use perfect model simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) to quantify short‐term (month to 2 years) predictability of Arctic Ocean NPP. Our results indicate that NPP is potentially predictable during the most productive summer months for at least 2 years, largely due to the highly predictable Arctic shelves where fisheries in the Arctic are projected to expand. Sea surface temperatures, which are an important limitation on phytoplankton growth and also are predictable for multiple years, are the most important physical driver of this predictability. Finally, we find that the predictability of NPP in the 2030s is enhanced relative to the 2010s, indicating that the utility of these predictions may increase in the near future. This work indicates that operational forecasts using Earth system models may provide moderately skillful predictions of NPP in the Arctic, possibly aiding in the management of Arctic marine resources.more » « less
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Kovac, Sarah A; Caspi, Amir; Seaton, Daniel B; Bryans, Paul; Burkepile, Joan R; Davis, Sarah J; DeForest, Craig E; Elmore, David; Gosain, Sanjay; Haacker, Rebecca; et al (, Solar Physics)The Citizen CATE 2024 next-generation experiment placed 43 identical telescope and camera setups along the path of totality during the total solar eclipse (TSE) on 8 April 2024 to capture a 60-minute movie of the inner and middle solar corona in polarized visible light. The 2024 TSE path covered a large geographic swath of North America and we recruited and trained 36 teams of community participants (“citizen scientists”) representative of the various communities along the path of totality. Afterwards, these teams retained the equipment in their communities for on-going education and public engagement activities. Participants ranged from students (K12, undergraduate, and graduate), educators, and adult learners to amateur and professional astronomers. In addition to equipment for their communities, CATE 2024 teams received hands-on telescope training, educational and learning materials, and instruction on data analysis techniques. CATE 2024 used high-cadence, high-dynamic-range (HDR) polarimetric observations of the solar corona to characterize the physical processes that shape its heating, structure, and evolution at scales and sensitivities that cannot be studied outside of a TSE. Conventional eclipse observations do not span sufficient time to capture changing coronal topology, but the extended observation from CATE 2024 does. Analysis of the fully calibrated dataset will provide deeper insight and understanding into these critical physical processes. We present an overview of the CATE 2024 project, including how we engaged local communities along the path of totality, and the first look at CATE 2024 data products from the 2024 TSE.more » « less
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