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Abstract Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance. Here we report thatLarix sibirica, a foundation species across boreal Eurasia, is vulnerable to extreme heat at its southern range margin due to its low thermal tolerance (T_critof photosynthesis: ~ 37–48 °C). Projections from CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) suggest that leaf temperatures might exceed the 25^thpercentile ofLarix sibirica’s T_critby two to three days per year within the next two to three decades (by 2050) under high emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). This degree of warming will threaten the biome’s continued ability to assimilate and sequester carbon. This work highlights that under high emission trajectories we may approach an abrupt ecological tipping point in southern boreal Eurasian forests substantially sooner than ESM estimates that do not consider plant thermal tolerance traits. 

Abstract Recent climate extremes in Mongolia have ignited a renewed interest in understanding past climate variability over centennial and longer time scales across north-central Asia. Tree-ring width records have been extensively studied in Mongolia as proxies for climate reconstruction, however, the climate and environmental signals of tree-ring stable isotopes from this region need to be further explored. Here, we evaluated a 182-year record of tree-ring δ13C and δ18O from Siberian Pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) from a xeric site in central Mongolia (Khorgo Lava) to elucidate the environmental factors modulating these parameters. First, we analyzed the climate sensitivity of tree-ring δ13C and δ18O at Khorgo Lava for comparison with ring-width records, which have been instrumental in reconstructing hydroclimate in central Mongolia over two millennia. We also compared stable isotope records of trees with partial cambial dieback (‘strip-bark morphology’), a feature of long-lived conifers growing on resource-limited sites, and trees with a full cambium (‘whole-bark morphology’), to assess the inferred leaf-level physiological behavior of these trees. We found that interannual variability in tree-ring δ13C and δ18O reflected summer hydroclimatic variability, and captured recent, extreme drought conditions, thereby complementing ring-width records. The tree-ring δ18O records also had a spring temperature signal and thus expanded the window of climate information recorded by these trees. Over longer time scales, strip-bark trees had an increasing trend in ring-widths, δ13C (and intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) and δ18O, relative to whole-bark trees. Our results suggest that increases in iWUE at this site might be related to a combination of leaf-level physiological responses to increasing atmospheric CO2, recent drought, and stem morphological changes. Our study underscores the potential of stable isotopes for broadening our understanding of past climate in north-central Asia. However, further studies are needed to understand how stem morphological changes might impact stable isotopic trends. 

Abstract Forests around the world are experiencing changes due to climate variability and human land use. How these changes interact and influence the vulnerability of forests are not well understood. In the eastern United States, well‐documented anthropogenic disturbances and land‐use decisions, such as logging and fire suppression, have influenced forest species assemblages, leading to a demographic shift from forests dominated by xeric species to those dominated by mesic species. Contemporarily, the climate has changed and is expected to continue to warm and produce higher evaporative demand, imposing stronger drought stress on forest communities. Here, we use an extensive network of tree‐ring records from common hardwood species across ~100 sites and ~1300 trees in the eastern United States to examine the magnitude of growth response to both wet and dry climate extremes. We find that growth reductions during drought exceed the positive growth response to pluvials. Mesic species such asLiriodendron tulipiferaandAcer saccharum, which are becoming more dominant, are more sensitive to drought than more xeric species, such as oaks (Quercus) and hickory (Carya), especially at moderate and extreme drought intensities. Although more extreme droughts produce a larger annual growth reduction, mild droughts resulted in the largest cumulative growth decreases due to their higher frequency. When using global climate model projections, all scenarios show drought frequency increasing substantially (3–9 times more likely) by 2100. Thus, the ongoing demographic shift toward more mesic species in the eastern United States combined with drier conditions results in larger drought‐induced growth declines, suggesting that drought will have an even larger impact on aboveground carbon uptake in the future in the eastern United States. 

Abstract The oak (Quercus) species of eastern North America are declining in abundance, threatening the many socioecological benefits they provide. We discuss the mechanisms responsible for their loss, many of which are rooted in the prevailing view that oaks are drought tolerant. We then synthesize previously published data to comprehensively review the drought response strategies of eastern US oaks, concluding that whether or not eastern oaks are drought tolerant depends firmly on the metric of success. Although the anisohydric strategy of oaks sometimes confers a gas exchange and growth advantage, it exposes oaks to damaging hydraulic failure, such that oaks are just as or more likely to perish during drought than neighboring species. Consequently, drought frequency is not a strong predictor of historic patterns of oak abundance, although long-term climate and fire frequency are strongly correlated with declines in oak dominance. The oaks’ ability to survive drought may become increasingly difficult in a drier future.