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Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 1, 2026
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Abstract Following a previous study examining the influence of an upper-tropospheric cold low (CL) on the track of a nearby tropical cyclone (TC), this study investigates the impacts of a CL on TC intensity. The results suggest that the relative position and separation distance between the CL and the TC are the key factors affecting TC intensity. When located outside the CL’s radius of maximum winds (RMW) but within its circulation, TCs initially in the northwest quadrant of the CL intensify faster than those in the other quadrants. Theβeffect causes the CL to move northwestward toward the TC and enhances eddy angular momentum flux convergence. Meanwhile, the upper-level TC outflow erodes the CL and reduces the associated vertical wind shear, promoting TC intensification. In contrast, for TCs initially located southeast of the CL, the attraction of the Fujiwhara effect between the two entities counteracts the CL’sβdrift and helps to maintain their separation distance. Moreover, Rossby wave energy dispersion induces an anticyclone southeast of the CL, which transports lower-θeair toward the TC and hinders the TC development. Furthermore, TCs within the CL’s RMW reach a similar intensity due to their PV superposition, irrespective of their relative positions to the CL. For TCs located outside the CL circulation, the CL’s impacts are largely negligible for TCs located northwest of the CL, but TCs located southeast of the CL may still be affected by the CL-induced anticyclone. Significance StatementThis study examines the influence of an upper-tropospheric cold low on tropical cyclone intensity. The results illustrate that the relative position and separation distance between the cold low and tropical cyclone are crucial factors in determining tropical cyclone intensity. Tropical cyclones initially northwest of a cold low intensify faster than those to the southeast when located outside the cold low’s radius of maximum winds but still within its circulation. The main mechanisms are how theβsteering and interactions between the two entities act together. The midlevel intrusion of cold, dry air and Rossby energy dispersion also contribute to their complex interaction. These insights provide a guide for forecasting the tropical cyclone intensity when influenced by a nearby upper-level cold low.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
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Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanied by an upper-tropospheric cold low (CL) can experience unusual tracks. Idealized simulations resembling observed scenarios are designed in this study to investigate the impacts of a CL on TC tracks. The sensitivity of the TC motion to its location relative to the CL is examined. The results show that a TC follows a counterclockwise semicircle track if initially located east of a CL, while a TC experiences a small southward-looping track, followed by a sudden northward turn if initially located west of a CL. A TC on the west side experiences opposing CL andβsteering, while they act in the same direction when a TC is on the east side of CL. The steering flow analyses show that the steering vector is dominated by upper-level flow induced by the CL at an early stage. The influence of CL extends downward and contributes to the lower-tropospheric asymmetric flow pattern of TC. As these two systems approach, the TC divergent outflow erodes the CL. The CL circulation is deformed and eventually merged with the TC when they are close. Since the erosion of CL, the TC motion is primarily related toβgyres at a later stage. The sensitivity of TC motion to the CL depth is also examined. TCs located west of a CL experience a westward track if the CL is shallow. In contrast, TCs initially located east of a CL all take a smooth track irrespective of the CL depth, and the CL depth mainly influences the track curvature and the TC translation speed. Significance StatementThe purpose of this study is to better understand how an upper-tropospheric cold low affects the motion of a nearby tropical cyclone. Our findings highlight distinct track patterns based on the relative positions of the tropical cyclone and the cold low. When the tropical cyclone is located on the east side of a cold low, a mutual rotation occurs, leading to a counterclockwise semicircle track of tropical cyclone. Conversely, if the tropical cyclone is located to the west side of a cold low, the cold low approaches and captures it, resulting in an abrupt northward turn when the cold low is eroded by the tropical cyclone. These insights improve the predictability of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of cold lows.more » « less
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Abstract Hurricane Sandy (2012) experienced an unusual westward turning and made landfall in New Jersey after its northward movement over the Atlantic Ocean. The landfall caused severe casualties and great economic losses. The westward turning took place in the midlatitude Atlantic where the climatological mean wind is eastward. The cause of this unusual westward track is investigated through both observational analysis and model simulations. The observational analysis indicates that the hurricane steering flow was primarily controlled by atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which was characterized by a pair of anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation systems. The anticyclone to the north was part of a global wave train forced by convection over the tropical Indian Ocean through Rossby wave energy dispersion, and the cyclone to the south originated from the tropical Atlantic through northward propagation. Hindcast experiments using a global coupled model show that the model is able to predict the observed circulation pattern as well as the westward steering flow 6 days prior to Sandy’s landfall. Sensitivity experiments with different initial dates confirm the important role of the ISO in establishing the westward steering flow in the midlatitude Atlantic. Thus the successful numerical model experiments suggest a potential for extended-range dynamical tropical cyclone track predictions.more » « less
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