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Strong gravitational lenses are a singular probe of the Universe’s small-scale structure—they are sensitive to the gravitational effects of low-mass (<10¹⁰M_⊙) halos even without a luminous counterpart. Recent strong-lensing analyses of dark matter structure rely on simulation-based inference (SBI). Modern SBI methods, which leverage neural networks as density estimators, have shown promise in extracting the halo-population signal. However, it is unclear whether the constraints from these models are limited by the methodology or the data. In this study, we introduce an accelerator-optimized simulation pipeline that can generate lens images with realistic subhalo populations in milliseconds. Leveraging this simulator, we identify the main limitation of our fiducial SBI analysis: training set size. We then adopt a sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) approach, allowing us to refine the training distribution to align with the observed data. Using only one-fifth as many mock Hubble Space Telescope images, SNPE matches the constraints on the low-mass halo population produced by our best nonsequential model. Our experiments suggest that an over 3 order-of-magnitude increase in training set size and GPU hours would be required to achieve an equivalent result without sequential methods. While the full potential of the existing lens sample remains to be explored, the notable improvement in constraining power enabled by our sequential approach highlights that current constraints are limited primarily by methodology and not the data itself. Moreover, our results emphasize the need to treat training set generation and model optimization as interconnected stages of any cosmological analysis using SBI.

 

The recent striking success of deep neural networks in machine learning raises profound questions about the theoretical principles underlying their success. For example, what can such deep networks compute? How can we train them? How does information propagate through them? Why can they generalize? And how can we teach them to imagine? We review recent work in which methods of physical analysis rooted in statistical mechanics have begun to provide conceptual insights into these questions. These insights yield connections between deep learning and diverse physical and mathematical topics, including random landscapes, spin glasses, jamming, dynamical phase transitions, chaos, Riemannian geometry, random matrix theory, free probability, and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Indeed, the fields of statistical mechanics and machine learning have long enjoyed a rich history of strongly coupled interactions, and recent advances at the intersection of statistical mechanics and deep learning suggest these interactions will only deepen going forward.