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Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

 

This dataset includes estimated plant aboveground live biomass data measured in 1 m x 1 m quadrats at several sites and experiments under the Sevilleta LTER program. Quadrat locations span four distinct ecosystems and their ecotones: creosotebush dominated Chihuahuan Desert shrubland (est. winter 1999), black grama-dominated Chihuahuan Desert grassland (est. winter 1999), blue grama-dominated Plains grassland (est. winter 2002), and pinon-juniper woodland (est. winter 2003). Data on plant cover and height for each plant species are collected per individual plant or patch (for clonal plants) within 1 m x 1 m quadrats. These data inform population dynamics of foundational and rare plant species. Biomass is estimated using plant allometries from non-destructive measurements of plant cover and height, and can be used to calculate net primary production (NPP), a fundamental ecosystem variable that quantifies rates of carbon consumption and fixation. Estimates of plant species cover, total plant biomass, or NPP can inform understanding of biodiversity, species composition, and energy flow at the community scale of biological organization, as well as spatial and temporal responses of plants to a range of ecological processes and direct experimental manipulations. The cover and height of individual plants or patches are sampled twice yearly (spring and fall) in permanent 1m x 1m plots within each site or experiment. This dataset includes core site monitoring data (CORE, GRIDS, ISOWEB, TOWER), observations in response to wildfire (BURN), and experimental treatments of extreme drought and delayed monsoon rainfall (EDGE), physical disturbance to biological soil crusts on the soil surface (CRUST), interannual variability in precipitation (MEANVAR), intra-annual variability via additions of monsoon rainfall (MRME), additions of nitrogen as ammonium nitrate (FERTILIZER), additions of nitrogen x phosphorus x potassium (NutNet), and interacting effects of nighttime warming, nitrogen addition, and El Niño winter rainfall (WENNDEx). To build allometric equations that relate biomass to plant cover or volume, the dataset "SEV-LTER quadrat plant cover and height data all sites and experiments" is used with a separate dataset of selectively harvested plant species "SEV-LTER Plant species mass data for allometry." Together, these datasets produced “SEV-LTER quadrat plant species biomass all sites and experiments” using the scripts posted with the allometry dataset. Data from the CORE sites in this dataset were designated as NA-US-011 in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD). Data from the TOWER sites in this dataset are linked to Ameriflux sites: ameriflux.lbl.gov/doi/AmeriFlux/US-Seg and ameriflux.lbl.gov/sites/siteinfo/US-Ses. 

This dataset is part of a long-term study at the Sevilleta LTER measuring net primary production (NPP) across four distinct ecosystems: creosote-dominant shrubland (Site C, est. winter 1999), black grama-dominant grassland (Site G, est. winter 1999), blue grama-dominant grassland (Site B, est. winter 2002), and pinon-juniper woodland (Site P, est. winter 2003). Net primary production is a fundamental ecological variable that quantifies rates of carbon consumption and fixation. Estimates of NPP are important in understanding energy flow at a community level as well as spatial and temporal responses to a range of ecological processes. Above-ground net primary production is the change in plant biomass, represented by stems, flowers, fruit and and foliage, over time and incoporates growth as well as loss to death and decomposition. To measure this change the vegetation variables in this dataset, including species composition and the cover and height of individuals, are sampled twice yearly (spring and fall) at permanent 1m x 1m plots within each site. A third sampling at Site C is performed in the winter. The data from these plots is used to build regressions correlating biomass and volume via weights of select harvested species obtained in SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data." This biomass data is included in SEV182, "Seasonal Biomass and Seasonal and Annual NPP for Core Research Sites." This dataset is designated as NA-US-011 in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD). To aid tracking of the use of databases in this index, please also reference this number when citing this data. The GIVD report for SEV129 can be found in: Biodiversity and Ecology 4 - Vegetation Databases for the 21st Century (2012) by J. Dengler et al. 

Begun in spring 2004, this long-term study at the Sevilleta LTER examines how fertilization affects above-ground biomass production (ANPP) in a mixed desert-grassland. Net primary production is a fundamental ecological variable that quantifies rates of carbon consumption and fixation. Estimates of NPP are important in understanding energy flow at a community level as well as spatial and temporal responses to a range of ecological processes. While measures of both below- and above-ground biomass are important in estimating total NPP, this study focuses on above-ground net primary production (ANPP). Above-ground net primary production is the change in plant biomass, including loss to death and decomposition, over a given period of time. Volumetric measurements are made using vegetation data from permanent plots (SEV155, "Nitrogen Fertilization Experiment (NFert): Net Primary Production Quadrat Data") and regressions correlating species biomass and volume constructed using seasonal harvest weights from SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data." This site was burned by a prescribed fire in 2003. 

In 2003, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducted a prescribed burn over a large part of the northeastern corner of the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge. Following this burn, a study was designed to look at the effect of fire on above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) (i.e., the change in plant biomass, represented by stems, flowers, fruit and foliage, over time) within three different vegetation types: mixed grass (MG), mixed shrub (MS) and black grama (G). Forty permanent 1m x 1m plots were installed in both burned and unburned (i.e., control) sections of each habitat type. The core black grama site included in SEV129 is used as a G control site for analyses and does not appear in this dataset. The MG control site caught fire unexpectedly in the fall of 2009 and some plots were subsequently moved to the south. For details of how the fire affected plot placement, see Methods below. In spring 2010, sampling of plots 16-25 was discontinued at the MG (burned and control) and G (burned treatment only) sites, reducing the number of sampled plots to 30 at each.To measure ANPP (i.e., the change in plant biomass, represented by stems, flowers, fruit and foliage, over time), the vegetation variables in this dataset, including species composition and the cover and height of individuals, are sampled twice yearly (spring and fall) at each plot. The data from these plots is used to build regressions correlating biomass and volume via weights of select harvested species obtained in SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data." This biomass data is included in SEV185, "Burn Study Sites Seasonal Biomass and Seasonal and Annual NPP Data." 

This dataset is part of a long-term study at the Sevilleta LTER, begun in spring 2004, which examines how fertilization affects above-ground biomass production (ANPP) in a mixed desert-grassland. Net primary production is a fundamental ecological variable that quantifies rates of carbon consumption and fixation. Estimates of NPP are important in understanding energy flow at a community level as well as spatial and temporal responses to a range of ecological processes. Above-ground net primary production is the change in plant biomass, represented by stems, flowers, fruit and foliage, over time and incorporates growth as well as loss to death and decomposition. To measure this change the vegetation variables in this dataset, including species composition and the cover and height of individuals, are sampled twice yearly (spring and fall) at permanent 1m x 1m plots. The data from these plots is used to build regressions correlating biomass and volume via weights of select harvested species obtained in SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data." This biomass data is included in SEV186, "Nitrogen Fertilization Experiment (NFert): Seasonal Biomass and Seasonal and Annual NPP Data." 

The Monsoon Rainfall Manipulation Experiment (MRME) is to understand changes in ecosystem structure and function of a semiarid grassland caused by increased precipitation variability, which alters the pulses of soil moisture that drive primary productivity, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. The overarching hypothesis being tested is that changes in event size and variability will alter grassland productivity, ecosystem processes, and plant community dynamics. In particular, we predict that many small events will increase soil CO2 effluxes by stimulating microbial processes but not plant growth, whereas a small number of large events will increase aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and soil respiration by providing sufficient deep soil moisture to sustain plant growth for longer periods of time during the summer monsoon. To measure ANPP (i.e., the change in plant biomass, represented by stems, flowers, fruit and foliage, over time), the vegetation variables in this dataset, including species composition and the cover and height of individuals, are sampled twice yearly (spring and fall) at permanent 1m x 1m plots. The data from these plots is used to build regressions correlating biomass and volume via weights of select harvested species obtained in SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data." This biomass data is included in SEV206, "Seasonal Biomass and Seasonal and Annual NPP for the Monsoon (MRME) Study." 

Two of the most pervasive human impacts on ecosystems are alteration of global nutrient budgets and changes in the abundance and identity of consumers. Fossil fuel combustion and agricultural fertilization have doubled and quintupled, respectively, global pools of nitrogen and phosphorus relative to pre-industrial levels. In spite of the global impacts of these human activities, there have been no globally coordinated experiments to quantify the general impacts on ecological systems. This experiment seeks to determine how nutrient availability controls plant biomass, diversity, and species composition in a desert grassland. This has important implications for understanding how future atmospheric deposition of nutrients (N, S, Ca, K) might affect community and ecosystem-level responses. This study is part of a larger coordinated research network that includes more than 40 grassland sites around the world. By using a standardized experimental setup that is consistent across all study sites, we are addressing the questions of whether diversity and productivity are co-limited by multiple nutrients and if so, whether these trends are predictable on a global scale. 

Begun in fall 2006, this long-term study at the Sevilleta LTER examines changes in net primary production (NPP) caused by increased precipitation variability within a semiarid grassland. Net primary production is a fundamental ecological variable that quantifies rates of carbon consumption and fixation. Estimates of NPP are important in understanding energy flow at a community level as well as spatial and temporal responses to a range of ecological processes. While measures of both below- and above-ground biomass are important in estimating total NPP, this study focuses on above-ground net primary production (ANPP). Above-ground net primary production is the change in plant biomass, including loss to death and decomposition, over a given period of time. Volumetric measurements are made using vegetation data from permanent plots (SEV188, "Monsoon Rainfall Manipulation Experiment (MRME): Net Primary Production Quadrat Data") and regressions correlating species biomass and volume constructed using seasonal harvest weights from SEV157, "Net Primary Productivity (NPP) Weight Data."