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Phenomenological models are highly effective tools for forecasting disease dynamics using real-world data, particularly in scenarios where detailed knowledge of disease mechanisms is limited. However, their reliability depends on the model parameters’ structural and practical identifiability. In this study, we systematically analyze the identifiability of six commonly used growth models in epidemiology: the generalized growth model (GGM), the generalized logistic model (GLM), the Richards model, the generalized Richards model (GRM), the Gompertz model, and a modified SEIR model with inhomogeneous mixing. To address challenges posed by non-integer power exponents in these models, we reformulate them by introducing additional state variables. This enables rigorous structural identifiability analysis using the StructuralIdentifiability.jl package in JULIA. We validated the structural identifiability results by performing parameter estimation and forecasting using the GrowthPredict MATLAB Toolbox. This toolbox is designed to fit and forecast time series trajectories based on phenomenological growth models. We applied it to three epidemiological datasets: weekly incidence data for monkeypox, COVID-19, and Ebola. Additionally, we assessed practical identifiability through Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate parameter estimation robustness under varying levels of observational noise. Our results confirm that all six models are structurally identifiable under the proposed reformulation. Furthermore, practical identifiability analyses demonstrate that parameter estimates remain robust across different noise levels, though sensitivity varies by model and dataset. These findings provide critical insights into the strengths and limitations of phenomenological models to characterize epidemic trajectories, emphasizing their adaptability to real-world challenges and their role in informing public health interventions. 

Differential equation models are crucial to scientific processes across many disciplines, and the values of model parameters are important for analyzing the behaviour of solutions. Identifying these values is known as a parameter estimation, a type of inverse problem, which has applications in areas that include industry, finance and biomedicine. A parameter is called globally identifiable if its value can be uniquely determined from the input and output functions. Checking the global identifiability of model parameters is a useful tool when exploring the well-posedness of a given model. This problem has been intensively studied for ordinary differential equation models, where theory, several efficient algorithms and software packages have been developed. A comprehensive theory for PDEs has hitherto not been developed due to the complexity of initial and boundary conditions. Here, we provide theory and algorithms, based on differential algebra, for testing identifiability of polynomial PDE models. We showcase this approach on PDE models arising in the sciences. 

Dynamical systems are commonly used to represent real-world processes. Model reduction techniques are among the core tools for studying dynamical systems models, they allow to reduce the study of a model to a simpler one. In this poster, we present an algorithm for computing exact nonlinear reductions, that is, a set of new rational function macro-variables which satisfy a self-consistent ODE system with the dynamics defined by algebraic functions. We report reductions found by the algorithm in models from the literature.