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Prosper, O.; Gurski, K.; Teboh-Ewungkem, M.; Peace, A.; Feng, Z.; Reynolds; M.; and Manore, C. (, Letters in biomathematics)Increasing temperatures have raised concerns over the potential effect on disease spread. Temperature is a well known factor affecting mosquito population dynamics and the development rate of the malaria parasite within the mosquito, and consequently, malaria transmission. A sinusoidal wave is commonly used to incorporate temperature effects in malaria models, however, we introduce a seasonal malaria framework that links data on temperature-dependent mosquito and parasite demographic traits to average monthly regional temperature data, without forcing a sinusoidal fit to the data. We introduce a spline methodology that maps temperature-dependent mosquito traits to time-varying model parameters. The resulting non-autonomous system of differential equations is used to study the impact of seasonality on malaria transmission dynamics and burden in a high and low malaria transmission region in Malawi. We present numerical simulations illustrating how temperature shifts alter the entomological inoculation rate and the number of malaria infections in these regions.more » « less
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Feng, Z.; Gurski, K. F.; Prosper, O.; Teboh-Ewungkem, M. I.; Grogan, M. (, Journal of Dynamics and Differential Equations)
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