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ABSTRACT Cyanobacterial blooms pose environmental and health risks due to their production of toxic secondary metabolites. While current methods for assessing these risks have focused primarily on bloom frequency and intensity, the lack of comprehensive and comparable data on cyanotoxins makes it challenging to rigorously evaluate these health risks. In this study, we examined 750 metagenomic data sets collected from 103 lakes worldwide. Our analysis unveiled the diverse distributions of cyanobacterial communities and the genes responsible for cyanotoxin production across the globe. Our approach involved the integration of cyanobacterial biomass, the biosynthetic potential of cyanotoxin, and the potential effects of these toxins to establish potential cyanobacterial health risks. Our findings revealed that nearly half of the lakes assessed posed medium to high health risks associated with cyanobacteria. The regions of greatest concern were East Asia and South Asia, particularly in developing countries experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization. Using machine learning techniques, we mapped potential cyanobacterial health risks in lakes worldwide. The model results revealed a positive correlation between potential cyanobacterial health risks and factors such as temperature, N₂O emissions, and the human influence index. These findings underscore the influence of these variables on the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms and associated risks. By introducing a novel quantitative method for monitoring potential cyanobacterial health risks on a global scale, our study contributes to the assessment and management of one of the most pressing threats to both aquatic ecosystems and human health. IMPORTANCEOur research introduces a novel and comprehensive approach to potential cyanobacterial health risk assessment, offering insights into risk from a toxicity perspective. The distinct geographical variations in cyanobacterial communities coupled with the intricate interplay of environmental factors underscore the complexity of managing cyanobacterial blooms at a global scale. Our systematic and targeted cyanobacterial surveillance enables a worldwide assessment of cyanobacteria-based potential health risks, providing an early warning system. 

ABSTRACT The frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms are increasing worldwide. Interactions between toxic cyanobacteria and aquatic microorganisms need to be critically evaluated to understand microbial drivers and modulators of the blooms. In this study, we applied 16S/18S rRNA gene sequencing and metabolomics analyses to measure the microbial community composition and metabolic responses of the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa in a coculture system receiving dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIP) close to representative concentrations in Lake Taihu, China. M. aeruginosa secreted alkaline phosphatase using a DIP source produced by moribund and decaying microorganisms when the P source was insufficient. During this process, M. aeruginosa accumulated several intermediates in energy metabolism pathways to provide energy for sustained high growth rates and increased intracellular sugars to enhance its competitive capacity and ability to defend itself against microbial attack. It also produced a variety of toxic substances, including microcystins, to inhibit metabolite formation via energy metabolism pathways of aquatic microorganisms, leading to a negative effect on bacterial and eukaryotic microbial richness and diversity. Overall, compared with the monoculture system, the growth of M. aeruginosa was accelerated in coculture, while the growth of some cooccurring microorganisms was inhibited, with the diversity and richness of eukaryotic microorganisms being more negatively impacted than those of prokaryotic microorganisms. These findings provide valuable information for clarifying how M. aeruginosa can potentially modulate its associations with other microorganisms, with ramifications for its dominance in aquatic ecosystems. IMPORTANCE We measured the microbial community composition and metabolic responses of Microcystis aeruginosa in a microcosm coculture system receiving dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIP) close to the average concentrations in Lake Taihu. In the coculture system, DIP is depleted and the growth and production of aquatic microorganisms can be stressed by a lack of DIP availability. M. aeruginosa could accelerate its growth via interactions with specific cooccurring microorganisms and the accumulation of several intermediates in energy metabolism-related pathways. Furthermore, M. aeruginosa can decrease the carbohydrate metabolism of cooccurring aquatic microorganisms and thus disrupt microbial activities in the coculture. This also had a negative effect on bacterial and eukaryotic microbial richness and diversity. Microcystin was capable of decreasing the biomass of total phytoplankton in aquatic microcosms. Overall, compared to the monoculture, the growth of total aquatic microorganisms is inhibited, with the diversity and richness of eukaryotic microorganisms being more negatively impacted than those of prokaryotic microorganisms. The only exception is M. aeruginosa in the coculture system, whose growth was accelerated.