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We introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing publichealth restrictions when the epidemic is severe, and relaxing restrictions when the epidemic is waning. Our primary results are that different instances of an epidemic with identical starting points have disparate outcomes and each epidemic temporal history is strongly fluctuating.more » « lessFree, publiclyaccessible full text available June 7, 2025

Free, publiclyaccessible full text available March 1, 2025

Free, publiclyaccessible full text available December 18, 2024

Abstract The territory explored by a random walk is a key property that may be quantified by the number of distinct sites that the random walk visits up to a given time. We introduce a more fundamental quantity, the time τ n required by a random walk to find a site that it never visited previously when the walk has already visited n distinct sites, which encompasses the full dynamics about the visitation statistics. To study it, we develop a theoretical approach that relies on a mapping with a trapping problem, in which the spatial distribution of traps is continuously updated by the random walk itself. Despite the geometrical complexity of the territory explored by a random walk, the distribution of the τ n can be accounted for by simple analytical expressions. Processes as varied as regular diffusion, anomalous diffusion, and diffusion in disordered media and fractals, fall into the same universality classes.more » « lessFree, publiclyaccessible full text available December 1, 2024

We determine the energy storage needed to achieve self sufficiency to a given reliability as a function of excess capacity in a combined solarenergy generation and storage system. Based on 40 years of solarenergy data for the St. Louis region, we formulate a statistical model that we use to generate synthetic insolation data over millions of years. We use these data to monitor the energy depletion in the storage system near the winter solstice. From this information, we develop explicit formulas for the required storage and the nature of costoptimized system configurations as a function of reliability and the excess generation capacity. Minimizing the cost of the combined generation and storage system gives the optimal mix of these two constituents. For an annual failure rate of less than 3%, it is sufficient to have a solar generation capacity that slightly exceeds the daily electrical load at the winter solstice, together with a few days of storage.more » « less

Abstract We investigate the occupancy statistics of birds on a wire. Birds land one by one on a wire and rest where they land. Whenever a newly arriving bird lands within a fixed distance of already resting birds, these resting birds immediately fly away. We determine the steadystate occupancy of the wire, the distribution of gaps between neighboring birds, and other basic statistical features of this process. We briefly discuss conjectures for corresponding observables in higher dimensions.more » « less

Abstract We investigate a moving boundary problem for a Brownian particle on the semiinfinite line in which the boundary moves by a distance proportional to the time between successive collisions of the particle and the boundary. Phenomenologically rich dynamics arises. In particular, the probability for the particle to first reach the moving boundary for the n th time asymptotically scales as t − ( 1 + 2 − n ) . Because the tail of this distribution becomes progressively fatter, the typical time between successive first passages systematically gets longer. We also find that the number of collisions between the particle and the boundary scales as ln ln t , while the time dependence of the boundary position varies as t /ln t .more » « less

Abstract We introduce an idealized model of an intelligent forager in which higher intelligence corresponds to a larger spatial range over which the forager can detect food. Such a forager diffuses randomly whenever the nearest food is more distant than the forager’s detection range, R , and moves ballistically towards the nearest food that is inside its detection range. Concomitantly, the forager’s metabolic energy cost per step is an increasing function of its intelligence. A dumb forager wanders randomly and may miss nearby food, thus making it susceptible to starvation. Conversely, a toosmart forager incurs a large metabolic cost per step during its search for food and is again susceptible to starvation. We show that the forager’s lifetime is maximized at an optimal, intermediate level of intelligence.more » « less

Abstract We introduce a minimalist dynamical model of wealth evolution and wealth sharing among N agents as a platform to compare the relative merits of altruism and individualism. In our model, the wealth of each agent independently evolves by diffusion. For a population of altruists, whenever any agent reaches zero wealth (that is, the agent goes bankrupt), the remaining wealth of the other N − 1 agents is equally shared among all. The population is collectively defined to be bankrupt when its total wealth falls below a specified small threshold value. For individualists, each time an agent goes bankrupt (s)he is considered to be ‘dead’ and no wealth redistribution occurs. We determine the evolution of wealth in these two societies. Altruism leads to more global median wealth at early times; eventually, however, the longestlived individualists accumulate most of the wealth and are richer and more long lived than the altruists.more » « less