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Abstract The total energy transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere is governed by the reconnection rate at the magnetosphere edges as the Z‐component of interplanetary magnetic field (IMFB_z) turns southward. The geomagnetic storm on 21–22 January 2005 is considered to be anomalous as the SYM‐H index that signifies the strength of ring current, decreases and had a sustained trough value of −101 nT lasting more than 6 hr under northward IMFB_zconditions. In this work, the standard WINDMI model is utilized to estimate the growth and decay of magnetospheric currents by using several solar wind‐magnetosphere coupling functions. However, it is found that the WINDMI model driven by any of these coupling functions is not fully able to explain the decrease of SYM‐H under northward IMFB_z. A dense plasma sheet along with signatures of a highly stretched magnetosphere was observed during this storm. The SYM‐H variations during the entire duration of the storm were only reproduced after modifying the WINDMI model to account for the effects of the dense plasma sheet. The limitations of directly driven models relying purely on the solar wind parameters and not accounting for the state of the magnetosphere are highlighted by this work. 

Abstract Although lagged correlations have suggested influences of solar wind velocity (V) and number density (N), Bz, ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power, and substorms (as measured by the auroral electrojet (AE) index) on MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit over an impressive number of hours and days, a satellite's diurnal cycle can inflate correlations, associations between drivers may produce spurious effects, and correlations between all previous time steps may create an appearance of additive influence over many hours. Autoregressive‐moving average transfer function (ARMAX) multiple regressions incorporating previous hours simultaneously can eliminate cycles and assess the impact of parameters, at each hour, while others are controlled. ARMAX influences are an order of magnitude lower than correlations uncorrected for time behavior. Most influence occurs within a few hours, not the many hours suggested by correlation. A log transformation accounts for nonlinearities. Over all hours, solar wind velocity (V) and number density (N) show an initial negative impact, with longer term positive influences over the 9 (V) or 27 (N) hr. Bz is initially a positive influence, with a longer term (6 hr) negative effect. ULF waves impact flux in the first (positive) and second (negative) hour before the flux measurement, with further negative influences in the 12–24 hr before. AE (representing electron injection by substorms) shows only a short term (1 hr) positive influence. However, when only recovery and after‐recovery storm periods are considered (using stepwise regression), there are positive influences of ULF waves, AE, andV, with negative influences ofNand Bz. 

Abstract Using measurements from the Van Allen Probes, we show that field‐aligned fluxes of electrons energized by dispersive Alfvén waves (DAWs) are prominent in the inner magnetosphere during active conditions. These electrons have preferentially field‐aligned anisotropies from 1.2 to>2 at energies ranging from tens of electron volts to several kiloelectron volts (keV), with largest values being coincident with magnetic field dipolarizations. Comparisons reveal that DAW energy densities and Poynting fluxes are strongly correlated with precipitating electron energies and energy fluxes and also O⁺ion outflow energies. These observations yield empirical inner magnetosphere relations between the DAW and electron inputs and the O⁺ion outflow response, providing important constraints for models. They also suggest that DAWs play an important role in enhancing field‐aligned electron input into the ionosphere that facilitates the outflow and subsequent energization of O⁺ions in the wave fields into the inner magnetosphere. 

Abstract Many factors influence relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes, such as waves in the ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, very low frequency (VLF), and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) frequency bands, seed electron flux, Dst disturbance levels, substorm occurrence, and solar wind inputs. In this work we compared relativistic electron flux poststorm versus prestorm using three methods of analysis: (1) multiple regression to predict flux values following storms, (2) multiple regression to predict the size and direction of the change in electron flux, and (3) multiple logistic regression to predict only the probability of the flux rising or falling. We determined which is the most predictive model and which factors are most influential. We found that a linear regression predicting the difference in prestorm and poststorm flux (Model 2) results in the highest validation correlations. The logistic regression used in Model 3 had slightly weaker predictive abilities than the other two models but had the most value in providing a prediction of the probability of the electron flux increasing after a storm. Of the variables used (ULF Pc5 and VLF, seed electrons, substorm activity, and EMIC waves), the most influential in the final model were ULF Pc5 waves and the seed electrons. IMF Bz, Dst, and solar wind number density, velocity, and pressure did not improve any of the models, and were deemed unnecessary for effective predictions. 

Abstract We present a global survey of energetic electron precipitation from the equatorial magnetosphere due to hiss waves in the plasmasphere and plumes. Using Van Allen Probes measurements, we calculate the pitch angle diffusion coefficients at the bounce loss cone, and evaluate the energy spectrum of precipitating electron flux. Our ∼6.5‐year survey shows that, during disturbed times, hiss inside the plasmasphere primarily causes the electron precipitation atL > 4 over 8 h < MLT < 18 h, and hiss waves in plumes cause the precipitation atL > 5 over 8 h < MLT < 14 h andL > 4 over 14 h < MLT < 20 h. The precipitating energy flux increases with increasing geomagnetic activity, and is typically higher in the plasmaspheric plume than the plasmasphere. The characteristic energy of precipitation increases from ∼20 keV atL = 6–∼100 keV atL = 3, potentially causing the loss of electrons at several hundred keV. 

Abstract Whistler mode chorus waves can scatter plasma sheet electrons into the loss cone and produce the Earth's diffuse aurora. Van Allen Probes observed plasma sheet electron injections and intense chorus waves on 24 November 2012. We use quasilinear theory to calculate the precipitating electron fluxes, demonstrating that the chorus waves could lead to high differential energy fluxes of precipitating electrons with characteristic energies of 10–30 keV. Using this method, we calculate the precipitating electron flux from 2012 to 2019 when the Van Allen Probes were near the magnetic equator and perform global surveys of electron precipitation under different geomagnetic conditions. The most significant electron precipitation due to chorus is found from the nightside to dawn sectors over 4 < L < 6.5. The average total precipitating energy flux is enhanced during disturbed conditions, with time‐averaged values reaching ~3–10 erg/cm²/s whenAE ≥ 500 nT.