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ABSTRACT AimTo quantify the intra‐community variability of leaf‐out (ICVLo) among dominant trees in temperate deciduous forests, assess its links with specific and phylogenetic diversity, identify its environmental drivers and deduce its ecological consequences with regard to radiation received and exposure to late frost. LocationEastern North America (ENA) and Europe (EUR). Time Period2009–2022. Major Taxa StudiedTemperate deciduous forest trees. MethodsWe developed an approach to quantify ICVLo through the analysis of RGB images taken from phenological cameras. We related ICVLo to species richness, phylogenetic diversity and environmental conditions. We quantified the intra‐community variability of the amount of radiation received and of exposure to late frost. ResultsLeaf‐out occurred over a longer time interval in ENA than in EUR. The sensitivity of leaf‐out to temperature was identical in both regions (−3.4 days per °C). The distributions of ICVLo were similar in EUR and ENA forests, despite the latter being more species‐rich and phylogenetically diverse. In both regions, cooler conditions and an earlier occurrence of leaf‐out resulted in higher ICVLo. ICVLo resulted in ca. 8% difference of radiation received from leaf‐out to September among individual trees. Forest communities in ENA had shorter safety margins as regards the exposure to late frosts, and were actually more frequently exposed to late frosts. Main ConclusionsWe conducted the first intercontinental analysis of the variability of leaf‐out at the scale of tree communities. North American and European forests showed similar ICVLo, in spite of their differences in terms of species richness and phylogenetic diversity, highlighting the relevance of environmental controls on ICVLo. We quantified two ecological implications of ICVLo (difference in terms of radiation received and exposure to late frost), which should be explored in the context of ongoing climate change, which affects trees differently according to their phenological niche. 

ABSTRACT BackgroundClimate‐change‐induced shifts in the timing of leaf emergence during spring have been widely documented and have important ecological consequences. However, mechanistic knowledge regarding what controls the timing of spring leaf emergence is incomplete. Field‐based studies under natural conditions suggest that climate‐warming‐induced decreases in cold temperature accumulation (chilling) have expanded the dormancy duration or reduced the sensitivity of plants to warming temperatures (thermal forcing) during spring, thereby slowing the rate at which the timing of leaf emergence is shifting earlier in response to ongoing climate change. However, recent studies have argued that the apparent reductions in temperature sensitivity may arise from artefacts in the way that temperature sensitivity is calculated, while other studies based on statistical and mechanistic models specifically designed to quantify the role of chilling have shown conflicting results. MethodsWe analysed four commonly used combinations of phenology and temperature datasets obtained from remote sensing and ground observations to elucidate whether current model‐based approaches robustly quantify how chilling, in concert with thermal forcing, controls the timing of leaf emergence during spring under current climate conditions. ResultsWe show that widely used modeling approaches that are calibrated using field‐based observations misspecify the role of chilling under current climate conditions as a result of statistical artefacts inherent to the way that chilling is parameterised. Our results highlight the limitations of existing modelling approaches and observational data in quantifying how chilling affects the timing of spring leaf emergence and suggest that decreasing chilling arising from climate warming may not constrain near‐future shifts towards earlier leaf emergence in extra‐tropical ecosystems worldwide. 

ABSTRACT We present a timeseries of¹⁴CO₂for the period 1910–2021 recorded by annual plants collected in the southwestern United States, centered near Flagstaff, Arizona. This timeseries is dominated by five commonly occurring annual plant species in the region, which is considered broadly representative of the southern Colorado Plateau. Most samples (1910–2015) were previously archived herbarium specimens, with additional samples harvested from field experiments in 2015–2021. We used this novel timeseries to develop a smoothed local record with uncertainties for “bomb spike”¹⁴C dating of recent terrestrial organic matter. Our results highlight the potential importance of local records, as we document a delayed arrival of the 1963–1964 bomb spike peak, lower values in the 1980s, and elevated values in the last decade in comparison to the most current Northern Hemisphere Zone 2 record. It is impossible to retroactively collect atmospheric samples, but archived annual plants serve as faithful scribes: samples from herbaria around the Earth may be an under-utilized resource to improve understanding of the modern carbon cycle.