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Archaeologists now routinely use summed radiocarbon dates as a measure of past population size, yet few have coupled these measures to theoretical expectations about social organization. To help move the ‘dates as data’ approach from description to explanation, this paper proposes a new integrative theory and method for quan- titative analyses of radiocarbon summed probability distributions (SPDs) in space. We present this new approach to ‘SPDs in space’ with a case study of 3571 geo-referenced radiocarbon dates from Wyoming, USA. We develop a SPD for the Holocene in Wyoming, then analyze the spatial distribution of the SPD as a function of time using a standard nearest-neighbor statistic. We compare population growth and decline throughout the Holocene with expectations for different Ideal Distribution Models from population ecology that predict the relationship be- tween habitat quality and population density. Results suggest that populations in Wyoming were initially clustered and then became increasingly dispersed through the course of the Holocene. These results suggest that Allee-like benefits to aggregation, rather than ideal free-driven dispersion patterns, explain settlement decisions in response to growing populations. Our approach is a first step in constructing a method and theory for de- scribing relationships between social organization and population growth trends derived from archaeological radiocarbon time-series. 

Abstract After smoke from burning biomass is emitted into the atmosphere, chemical and physical processes change the composition and amount of organic aerosol present in the aged, diluted plume. During the fourth Fire Lab at Missoula Experiment, we performed smog‐chamber experiments to investigate formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and multiphase oxidation of primary organic aerosol (POA). We simulated atmospheric aging of diluted smoke from a variety of biomass fuels while measuring particle composition using high‐resolution aerosol mass spectrometry. We quantified SOA formation using a tracer ion for low‐volatility POA as a reference standard (akin to a naturally occurring internal standard). These smoke aging experiments revealed variable organic aerosol (OA) enhancements, even for smoke from similar fuels and aging mechanisms. This variable OA enhancement correlated well with measured differences in the amounts of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that could subsequently be oxidized to form SOA. For some aging experiments, we were able to predict the SOA production to within a factor of 2 using a fuel‐specific VOC emission inventory that was scaled by burn‐specific toluene measurements. For fires of coniferous fuels that were dominated by needle burning, volatile biogenic compounds were the dominant precursor class. For wiregrass fires, furans were the dominant SOA precursors. We used a POA tracer ion to calculate the amount of mass lost due to gas‐phase oxidation and subsequent volatilization of semivolatile POA. Less than 5% of the POA mass was lost via multiphase oxidation‐driven evaporation during up to 2 hr of equivalent atmospheric oxidation.