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Abstract Many factors influence relativistic outer radiation belt electron fluxes, such as waves in the ultralow frequency (ULF) Pc5, very low frequency (VLF), and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) frequency bands, seed electron flux, Dst disturbance levels, substorm occurrence, and solar wind inputs. In this work we compared relativistic electron flux poststorm versus prestorm using three methods of analysis: (1) multiple regression to predict flux values following storms, (2) multiple regression to predict the size and direction of the change in electron flux, and (3) multiple logistic regression to predict only the probability of the flux rising or falling. We determined which is the most predictive model and which factors are most influential. We found that a linear regression predicting the difference in prestorm and poststorm flux (Model 2) results in the highest validation correlations. The logistic regression used in Model 3 had slightly weaker predictive abilities than the other two models but had the most value in providing a prediction of the probability of the electron flux increasing after a storm. Of the variables used (ULF Pc5 and VLF, seed electrons, substorm activity, and EMIC waves), the most influential in the final model were ULF Pc5 waves and the seed electrons. IMF Bz, Dst, and solar wind number density, velocity, and pressure did not improve any of the models, and were deemed unnecessary for effective predictions. 

Abstract The atmospheric effects of precipitating electrons are not fully understood, and uncertainties are large for electrons with energies greater than ~30 keV. These electrons are underrepresented in modeling studies today, primarily because valid measurements of their precipitating spectral energy fluxes are lacking. This paper compares simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that incorporated two different estimates of precipitating electron fluxes for electrons with energies greater than 30 keV. The estimates are both based on data from the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED) instruments but differ in several significant ways. Most importantly, only one of the estimates includes both the 0° and 90° telescopes from the MEPED instrument. Comparisons are presented between the WACCM results and satellite observations poleward of 30°S during the austral winter of 2003, a period of significant energetic electron precipitation. Both of the model simulations forced with precipitating electrons with energies >30 keV match the observed descent of reactive odd nitrogen better than a baseline simulation that included auroral electrons, but no higher energy electrons. However, the simulation that included both telescopes shows substantially better agreement with observations, particularly at midlatitudes. The results indicate that including energies >30 keV and the full range of pitch angles to calculate precipitating electron fluxes is necessary for improving simulations of the atmospheric effects of energetic electron precipitation.