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  1. Abstract

    Surface charging by keV (kiloelectron Volt) electrons can pose a serious risk for satellites. There is a need for physical models with the correct and validated dynamical behavior. The 18.5‐month (2013–2015) output from the continuous operation online in real time as a nowcast of the Inner Magnetosphere Particle Transport and Acceleration Model (IMPTAM) is compared to the GOES 13 MAGnetospheric Electron Detector (MAGED) data for 40, 75, and 150 keV energies. The observed and modeled electron fluxes were organized by Magnetic Local Time (MLT) and IMPTAM driving parameters; the observed Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)BZ,BY, and |B|; the solar wind speedVSW; the dynamic pressurePSW; andKpandSYM‐Hindices. The peaks for modeled fluxes are shifted toward midnight, but the ratio between the observed and modeled fluxes at around 06 MLT is close to 1. All the statistical patterns exhibit very similar features with the largest differences of about 1 order of magnitude at 18–24 MLT. Based on binary event analysis, 20–78% of threshold crossings are reproduced, but Heidke skill scores are low. The modeled fluxes are off by a factor of 2 in terms of the median symmetric accuracy. The direction of the error varies with energy: overprediction by 50% for 40 keV, overprediction by 2 for 75 keV, and underprediction by 18% for 150 keV. The revealed discrepancies are due to the boundary conditions developed for ions but used for electrons, absence of substorm effects, representations of electric and magnetic fields which can result in not enough adiabatic acceleration, and simple models for electron lifetimes.

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  2. Abstract

    Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves can drive precipitation of tens of keV protons and relativistic electrons, and are a potential candidate for causing radiation belt flux dropouts. In this study, we quantitatively analyze three cases of EMIC‐driven precipitation, which occurred near the dusk sector observed by multiple Low‐Earth‐Orbiting (LEO) Polar Operational Environmental Satellites/Meteorological Operational satellite programme (POES/MetOp) satellites. During EMIC wave activity, the proton precipitation occurred from few tens of keV up to hundreds of keV, while the electron precipitation was mainly at relativistic energies. We compare observations of electron precipitation with calculations using quasi‐linear theory. For all cases, we consider the effects of other magnetospheric waves observed simultaneously with EMIC waves, namely, plasmaspheric hiss and magnetosonic waves, and find that the electron precipitation at MeV energies was predominantly caused by EMIC‐driven pitch angle scattering. Interestingly, each precipitation event observed by a LEO satellite extended over a limited L shell region (ΔL ~ 0.3 on average), suggesting that the pitch angle scattering caused by EMIC waves occurs only when favorable conditions are met, likely in a localized region. Furthermore, we take advantage of the LEO constellation to explore the occurrence of precipitation at different L shells and magnetic local time sectors, simultaneously with EMIC wave observations near the equator (detected by Van Allen Probes) or at the ground (measured by magnetometers). Our analysis shows that although EMIC waves drove precipitation only in a narrow ΔL, electron precipitation was triggered at various locations as identified by POES/MetOp over a rather broad region (up to ~4.4 hr MLT and ~1.4 Lshells) with similar patterns between satellites.

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