Search for: All records

Infectious disease spread within the human population can be conceptualized as a complex system composed of individuals who interact and transmit viruses through spatio-temporal processes that manifest across and between scales. The complexity of this system ultimately means that the spread of infectious diseases is difficult to understand, predict, and respond to effectively. Research interest in GeoAI for public health has been fueled by the increased availability of rich data sources such as human mobility data, OpenStreetMap data, contact tracing data, symptomatic online surveys, retail and commerce data, genomics data, and more. This data availability has resulted in a wide variety of data-driven solutions for infectious disease spread prediction which show potential in enhancing our forecasting capabilities. This book chapter (1) motivates the need for AI-based solutions in public health by showing the heterogeneity of human behavior related to health, (2) provides a brief survey of current state-of-the-art solutions using AI for infectious disease spread prediction, (3) describes a use-case of using large-scale human mobility data to inform AI models for the prediction of infectious disease spread in a city, and (4) provides future research directions and ideas. 

Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools used for better understanding, predicting, and responding to diseases. ABMs are well-suited to represent human health behaviors, a key driver of disease spread. However, many existing ABMs of infectious respiratory disease spread oversimplify or ignore behavioral aspects due to limited data and the variety of behavioral theories available. Therefore, this study aims to develop and implement a data-driven framework for agent decision-making related to health behaviors in geospatial ABMs of infectious disease spread. The agent decision-making framework uses a logistic regression model expressed in the form of odds ratios to calculate the probability of adopting a behavior. The framework is integrated into a geospatial ABM that simulates the spread of COVID-19 and mask usage among the student population at George Mason University in Fall 2021. The framework leverages odds ratios, which can be derived from surveys or open data, and can be modified to incorporate variables identified by behavioral theories. This advancement will offer the public and decision-makers greater insight into disease transmission, accurate predictions on disease outcomes, and preparation for future infectious disease outbreaks. 

Foot traffic is a business term to describe the number of customers that enter a point of interest (POI). This work aims to predict future foot traffic: the number of people from each census block group (CBG) that will visit each POI of a study region with potential applications in marketing and advertising. Existing techniques for spatiotemporal prediction of foot traffic use location-based social network data that suffer from sparsity, capturing only a handful of visits per day. This study utilizes highly granular foot traffic data from SafeGraph, a data company that collects mobility data regarding hundreds of millions of visits per day in the United States alone. Using this data, we explore solutions to predict weekly foot traffic data at the POI level. We propose a collaborative filtering approach using tensor factorization on the (POIs x CBGs x Weeks) data tensor. This approach provides us with a de-noised estimation of visits in previous weeks for all POI-CBG pairs. Using this tensor, we explore various time series prediction models: weekly rolling average, weighted weekly rolling average, univariate linear regression, polynomial regression, and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks. Our results show that of all the prediction models, the collaborative filtering step consistently improves prediction results. We also found that a simple weighted average consistently performed better than the more sophisticated approaches. Given this abundance of foot traffic data, this result shows that we can improve the spatiotemporal prediction of foot traffic data by harnessing collaborative filtering.