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Abstract In recent years, unexplained declines in lake total phosphorus (TP) concentrations have been observed at northern latitudes (> 42°N latitude) where most of the world's lakes are found. We compiled data from 389 lakes in Fennoscandia and eastern North America to investigate the effects of climate on lake TP concentrations. Synchrony in year‐to‐year variability is an indicator of climatic influences on lake TP, because other major influences on nutrients (e.g., land use change) are not likely to affect all lakes in the same year. We identified significant synchrony in lake TP both within and among different geographic regions. Using a bootstrapped random forest analysis, we identified winter temperature as the most important factor controlling annual TP, followed by summer precipitation. In Fennoscandia, TP was negatively correlated with the winter East Atlantic Pattern, which is associated with regionally warmer winters. Our results suggest that, in the absence of other overriding factors, lake TP and productivity may decline with continued winter warming in northern lakes. 

This dataset accompanies a paper submitted for publication to Limnology and Oceanography Letters, expected publication year 2023, by Isles et al., entitled "Widespread synchrony in phosphorus concentrations in northern lakes linked to winter temperature and summer precipitation." This dataset comprises April-November median TP concentrations for 389 lakes in Fennoscandia, the north-central and northeastern USA, and central to eastern Canada, between 1998 and. 2017. The dataset also includes seasonal means for climate variables divided into winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA), and fall (SON) means of air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. The data all originate with publicly collected datasets, and many data source have data from additional time periods or for additional variables collected over longer time periods available from websites or through contact forms. 

Understanding controls on primary productivity is essential for describing ecosystems and their responses to environmental change. Lake primary production is strongly controlled by inputs of nutrients and colored dissolved organic matter. While past studies have developed mathematical models of this nutrient-color paradigm, broad empirical tests of these models are scarce. We compiled data from 58 diverse and globally distributed and mostly temperate lakes to test such a model and improve understanding and prediction of the controls on lake primary production. These lakes varied widely in size (0.02-2300 km2), pelagic gross primary production (20-8000 mg C m-2 d-1), and other characteristics. The data package includes high-frequency dissolved oxygen, water temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation data as well as daily estimates of GPP and ER derived from those data. In addition, the data package includes median in-lake and stream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and total phosphorus for a subset of 18 of those lakes. 

In lakes, ecosystem structure and processes are influenced by gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP). The rates of these metabolic processes are often controlled by resource availability, which often reflects catchment loads. Although the relationship between catchment loads and in-lake nutrient concentrations may be well defined in specific lakes, we explored how watershed vs. in-lake predictors of metabolism compare across lake types. To do this, we combined stream loads of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) with high frequency in situ monitoring of lake metabolism and in-lake C, N, and P concentrations from 16 lakes spanning a range of latitudes (39 to 64 degrees N), inflowing stream (0 - 6 streams), and trophic status (oligotrophic to eutrophic). The data package includes high-frequency dissolved oxygen, water temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation data as well as daily estimates of GPP, R, and NEP derived from those data. In addition, the data package includes in-lake and stream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus and stream discharge data. The package also includes estimates of daily carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus loading to each lake derived from the stream concentrations and discharge. 

Abstract The quality of lake ice is of uppermost importance for ice safety and under-ice ecology, but its temporal and spatial variability is largely unknown. Here we conducted a coordinated lake ice quality sampling campaign across the Northern Hemisphere during one of the warmest winters since 1880 and show that lake ice during 2020/2021 commonly consisted of unstable white ice, at times contributing up to 100% to the total ice thickness. We observed that white ice increased over the winter season, becoming thickest and constituting the largest proportion of the ice layer towards the end of the ice cover season when fatal winter drownings occur most often and light limits the growth and reproduction of primary producers. We attribute the dominance of white ice before ice-off to air temperatures varying around the freezing point, a condition which occurs more frequently during warmer winters. Thus, under continued global warming, the prevalence of white ice is likely to substantially increase during the critical period before ice-off, for which we adjusted commonly used equations for human ice safety and light transmittance through ice. 

Abstract Understanding controls on primary productivity is essential for describing ecosystems and their responses to environmental change. In lakes, pelagic gross primary productivity (GPP) is strongly controlled by inputs of nutrients and dissolved organic matter. Although past studies have developed process models of this nutrient‐color paradigm (NCP), broad empirical tests of these models are scarce. We used data from 58 globally distributed, mostly temperate lakes to test such a model and improve understanding and prediction of the controls on lake primary production. The model includes three state variables–dissolved phosphorus, terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and phytoplankton biomass–and generates realistic predictions for equilibrium rates of pelagic GPP. We calibrated our model using a Bayesian data assimilation technique on a subset of lakes where DOC and total phosphorus (TP) loads were known. We then asked how well the calibrated model performed with a larger set of lakes. Revised parameter estimates from the updated model aligned well with existing literature values. Observed GPP varied nonlinearly with both inflow DOC and TP concentrations in a manner consistent with increasing light limitation as DOC inputs increased and decreasing nutrient limitation as TP inputs increased. Furthermore, across these diverse lake ecosystems, model predictions of GPP were highly correlated with observed values derived from high‐frequency sensor data. The GPP predictions using the updated parameters improved upon previous estimates, expanding the utility of a process model with simplified assumptions for water column mixing. Our analysis provides a model structure that may be broadly useful for understanding current and future patterns in lake primary production. 

Rivers and streams contribute to global carbon cycling by decomposing immense quantities of terrestrial plant matter. However, decomposition rates are highly variable and large-scale patterns and drivers of this process remain poorly understood. Using a cellulose-based assay to reflect the primary constituent of plant detritus, we generated a predictive model (81% variance explained) for cellulose decomposition rates across 514 globally distributed streams. A large number of variables were important for predicting decomposition, highlighting the complexity of this process at the global scale. Predicted cellulose decomposition rates, when combined with genus-level litter quality attributes, explain published leaf litter decomposition rates with high accuracy (70% variance explained). Our global map provides estimates of rates across vast understudied areas of Earth and reveals rapid decomposition across continental-scale areas dominated by human activities.