Search for: All records

The world's eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) contribute disproportionately to global ocean productivity and provide critical ecosystem services to human society. The impact of climate change on EBUSs and the ecosystems they support is thus a subject of considerable interest. Here, we review hypotheses of climate-driven change in the physics, biogeochemistry, and ecology of EBUSs; describe observed changes over recent decades; and present projected changes over the twenty-first century. Similarities in historical and projected change among EBUSs include a trend toward upwelling intensification in poleward regions, mitigatedwarming in near-coastal regions where upwelling intensifies, and enhanced water-column stratification and a shoaling mixed layer. However, there remains significant uncertainty in how EBUSs will evolve with climate change, particularly in how the sometimes competing changes in upwelling intensity, source-water chemistry, and stratification will affect productivity and ecosystem structure. We summarize the commonalities and differences in historical and projected change in EBUSs and conclude with an assessment of key remaining uncertainties and questions. Future studies will need to address these questions to better understand, project, and adapt to climate-driven changes in EBUSs. 

Warming drives ocean memory loss leading to noisier, less predictable sea surface temperature variability. 

Abstract The episodic stranding of millions of pelagic red crabs (Pleuroncodes planipes) along California beaches is a striking and puzzling phenomenon.Pleuroncodes planipesare usually abundant off Baja California, Mexico, and their appearance in central California is thought to coincide with anomalously warm waters and northward advection related to El Niño. This anecdotal association has stimulated many hypotheses, but no hypothesis has gained clear and convincing support. Motivated by an unprecedented number ofP. planipesstrandings and at‐sea observations in 2015–2019, we compiled 10P. planipesdatasets spanning 1950–2019, tested the anomalous advection hypothesis using a transport analysis from 1981 to 2010, and explored other compelling hypotheses. We foundP. planipespresence off central California was related to anomalous advection of waters from Mexico, sometimes but not always associated with El Niño events, withP. planipeslikely remaining residents of northern waters for several years without additional anomalous transport but potentially facilitated by warm waters. By identifying a mechanism behind episodicP. planipesrange expansions, we show that a source water index could provide an early indicator for anomalous events in the future.