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While a common trend in disease modeling is to develop models of increasing complexity, it was recently pointed out that outbreaks appear remarkably simple when viewed in the incidence vs. cumulative cases (ICC) plane. This article details the theory behind this phenomenon by analyzing the stochastic Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model in the cumulative cases domain. We prove that the Markov chain associated with this model reduces, in the ICC plane, to a pure birth chain for the cumulative number of cases, whose limit leads to an independent increments Gaussian process that fluctuates about a deterministic ICC curve. We calculate the associated variance and quantify the additional variability due to estimating incidence over a finite period of time. We also illustrate the universality brought forth by the ICC concept on real-world data for Influenza A and for the COVID-19 outbreak in Arizona. 

In the classical Steiner tree problem, given an undirected, connected graph G =( V , E ) with non-negative edge costs and a set of terminals T ⊆ V , the objective is to find a minimum-cost tree E &prime ⊆ E that spans the terminals. The problem is APX-hard; the best-known approximation algorithm has a ratio of ρ = ln (4)+ε < 1.39. In this article, we study a natural generalization, the multi-level Steiner tree (MLST) problem: Given a nested sequence of terminals T ℓ ⊂ … ⊂ T 1 ⊆ V , compute nested trees E ℓ ⊆ … ⊆ E 1 ⊆ E that span the corresponding terminal sets with minimum total cost. The MLST problem and variants thereof have been studied under various names, including Multi-level Network Design, Quality-of-Service Multicast tree, Grade-of-Service Steiner tree, and Multi-tier tree. Several approximation results are known. We first present two simple O (ℓ)-approximation heuristics. Based on these, we introduce a rudimentary composite algorithm that generalizes the above heuristics, and determine its approximation ratio by solving a linear program. We then present a method that guarantees the same approximation ratio using at most 2ℓ Steiner tree computations. We compare these heuristics experimentally on various instances of up to 500 vertices using three different network generation models. We also present several integer linear programming formulations for the MLST problem and compare their running times on these instances. To our knowledge, the composite algorithm achieves the best approximation ratio for up to ℓ = 100 levels, which is sufficient for most applications, such as network visualization or designing multi-level infrastructure.