Search for: All records

Changes in phenology in response to ongoing climate change have been observed in numerous taxa around the world. Differing rates of phenological shifts across trophic levels have led to concerns that ecological interactions may become increasingly decoupled in time, with potential negative consequences for populations. Despite widespread evidence of phenological change and a broad body of supporting theory, large-scale multitaxa evidence for demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony remains elusive. Using data from a continental-scale bird-banding program, we assess the impact of phenological dynamics on avian breeding productivity in 41 species of migratory and resident North American birds breeding in and around forested areas. We find strong evidence for a phenological optimum where breeding productivity decreases in years with both particularly early or late phenology and when breeding occurs early or late relative to local vegetation phenology. Moreover, we demonstrate that landbird breeding phenology did not keep pace with shifts in the timing of vegetation green-up over a recent 18-y period, even though avian breeding phenology has tracked green-up with greater sensitivity than arrival for migratory species. Species whose breeding phenology more closely tracked green-up tend to migrate shorter distances (or are resident over the entire year) and breed earlier in the season. These results showcase the broadest-scale evidence yet of the demographic impacts of phenological change. Future climate change–associated phenological shifts will likely result in a decrease in breeding productivity for most species, given that bird breeding phenology is failing to keep pace with climate change. 

Identifying genetic conservation units (CUs) in threatened species is critical for the preservation of adaptive capacity and evolutionary potential in the face of climate change. However, delineating CUs in highly mobile species remains a challenge due to high rates of gene flow and genetic signatures of isolation by distance. Even when CUs are delineated in highly mobile species, the CUs often lack key biological information about what populations have the most conservation need to guide management decisions. Here we implement a framework for CU identification in the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis), a migratory bird species of conservation concern, and then integrate demographic modelling and genomic offset to guide conservation decisions. We find that patterns of whole genome genetic variation in this highly mobile species are primarily driven by putative adaptive variation. Identification of CUs across the breeding range revealed that Canada Warblers fall into two evolutionarily significant units (ESU), and three putative adaptive units (AUs) in the South, East, and Northwest. Quantification of genomic offset, a metric of genetic changes necessary to maintain current gene–environment relationships, revealed significant spatial variation in climate vulnerability, with the Northwestern AU being identified as the most vulnerable to future climate change. Alternatively, quantification of past population trends within each AU revealed the steepest population declines have occurred within the Eastern AU. Overall, we illustrate that genomics‐informed CUs provide a strong foundation for identifying current and future regional threats that can be used to inform management strategies for a highly mobile species in a rapidly changing world.

 

Understanding the geographic linkages among populations across the annual cycle is an essential component for understanding the ecology and evolution of migratory species and for facilitating their effective conservation. While genetic markers have been widely applied to describe migratory connections, the rapid development of new sequencing methods, such as low‐coverage whole genome sequencing (lcWGS), provides new opportunities for improved estimates of migratory connectivity. Here, we use lcWGS to identify fine‐scale population structure in a widespread songbird, the American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla), and accurately assign individuals to genetically distinct breeding populations. Assignment of individuals from the nonbreeding range reveals population‐specific patterns of varying migratory connectivity. By combining migratory connectivity results with demographic analysis of population abundance and trends, we consider full annual cycle conservation strategies for preserving numbers of individuals and genetic diversity. Notably, we highlight the importance of the Northern Temperate‐Greater Antilles migratory population as containing the largest proportion of individuals in the species. Finally, we highlight valuable considerations for other population assignment studies aimed at using lcWGS. Our results have broad implications for improving our understanding of the ecology and evolution of migratory species through conservation genomics approaches.